{"id":4480,"date":"2026-04-02T00:16:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/"},"modified":"2026-04-03T00:08:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:08:43","slug":"forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian jobs set for modest rebound in March"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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For week of Apr.<\/strong> 6<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next Friday\u2019s Canadian Labour Force Survey should show a partial recovery in employment in March after consecutive job losses totalling 109,000 over the prior two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The monthly employment data is notoriously volatile, and despite the earlier losses, the unemployment rate still ticked slightly lower over the last two months. It partially retraced a 0.3 percentage point decline in January with a 0.2 percentage point increase to 6.7% in February, still below the 6.8% average in Q4, and recent peak of 7.1% in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Young workers aged 15 to 24 accounted for an outsized share of the earlier job losses, representing 60% of the total despite taking up only 14% of the overall labour force. As a result, their unemployment rate increased substantially by 0.7 percentage points in February compared to the Q4 average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, the unemployment rate among prime-age workers (aged 25 to 54) has remained relatively steady, trending lower to 5.7% in February from 5.8% in Q4 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, much of the latest increase in the unemployment rate (about half by our count) in February came from a rise in workers that were unemployed, but had a job lined up to start within the next four weeks (future starts). As some of these positions pass start dates, we expect a modest recovery of 15,000 jobs in March\u2014enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increase in future starts coincided with rising job postings in the second half of 2025 into the new year. However, recent data from Indeed.com flagged a sharp reversal in March, possibly due to rising economic uncertainty tied to escalating global geopolitical tensions dampening hiring demand. A similar plunge in job postings was seen in the United States and Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Outlook for hiring remains stable amid uncertainty<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Weak hiring sentiment in Canada could extend well into Q2 as geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing tariff risks persist. However, recent gross domestic product growth<\/a> numbers have looked better with Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates pointing to 1 \u00bd % annualized growth in Q1 after a soft start, supported by resilient domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty remains elevated, but we retain our outlook that the per-worker labour market should continue to recover this year. Job growth will remain softer than historical norms<\/a> given rapidly slowing population growth. However, the unemployment rate is tracking well against our prior assumption of 6.6% in Q1, and we expect it to move lower toward 6.3% by year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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