{"id":416,"date":"2020-04-17T21:33:15","date_gmt":"2020-04-17T21:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2020\/04\/17\/pandemic-throws-housing-market-off-course\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:46","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:46","slug":"pandemic-throws-housing-market-off-course","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/pandemic-throws-housing-market-off-course\/","title":{"rendered":"Pandemic Throws Housing Market off Course"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Highlights:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>As feared, home resales plummeted across-the-board in March:<\/b> Activity fell 14.3% from February nationwide as governments rolled out COVID-19 containment measures. All major markets but one (Regina) showed a monthly drop. Calgary (-26%) and Toronto (-21%) led the decline. Earlier local reports indicated transactions fizzled in the latter half of March after what had been a strong first half.<\/li>\n<li><b>April is shaping up to be even quieter: <\/b>A sneak peak at the first week of April results showed resales running at about half normal levels across Canada. We expect activity to wind down even further as the month progresses.<\/li>\n<li><b>Supply falls in tandem:<\/b> The dramatic turn of events prompted many would-be sellers to stay on the sidelines. New listings fell 12.5% from February across the country. This left demand-supply conditions tight overall in March with buyers in Montreal, Ottawa-Gatineau and Halifax still facing unusually low inventories. <\/li>\n<li><b>Property values are generally holding up:<\/b> Canada&#8217;s MLS Home Price Index further accelerated to a y\/y rate of 6.9% from 5.9% in February. Ottawa (+15.5%), Montreal (+11.3%) and Toronto (+11.1%) posted double-digit increases. Pockets of price weakness persisted in the Prairies. <\/li>\n<li><b>It&#8217;s all about the pandemic and containment measures near term:<\/b> We expect both buyers and sellers to lay low while extraordinary containment measures are in place. This will maintain a certain balance in most markets and help home prices stay afloat.<\/li>\n<li><b>Length and depth of recession will shape the market recovery: <\/b>Unprecedented government support and rock-bottom interest rates will help re-activate the market once containment measures are lifted. The type of recovery we&#8217;ll get, however, will depend on the extent and persistence of labour market damage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<p><div id=\"highcharts-NpMh8pWa4\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/NpMh8pWa4\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>Everything changed mid-March <\/h4>\n<p>March 2020 will go down in history as the month Canada&#8217;s housing market passed its most dramatic inflection point. After a strong start\u2014in part fueled by the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates early in the month\u2014activity fell precipitously in the latter half of the month as provincial governments rolled out strict social distancing measures. While the real estate industry wasn&#8217;t shut down outright in most provinces (generally listed as an essential service), social distancing guidelines severely disrupted the way it conducts business. Under these extraordinary circumstances, many buyers and sellers opted to shift to, or stay on the sidelines. Both resales (14.3%) and new listings (-12.5%) plummeted last month from February levels. This was just the beginning.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><b><center>March Market Snapshot<\/center><\/b><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/canadian-housing-market-march-snapshot-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"174\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-24518\" \/><\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4>Expect larger declines in April<\/h4>\n<p>The Canadian Real Estate Association unusually gave a sneak preview of results for the first week of April. These showed home resales and new listings running at about half normal levels. We believe many of the transactions taking place early this month reflected deals in the works for several weeks. We expect activity to quiet down even further as the deal pipeline dries up. Real-time results reported by the Calgary Real Estate Board indicate resales fell 63% y\/y and new listings by 62% month-to-date in April. This could give a rough indication of what&#8217;s in store for other markets across Canada. <\/p>\n<h4>This will be a temporary shock<\/h4>\n<p>We expect stronger activity to resume once social distancing orders are relaxed though there&#8217;s great uncertainty as to when this will happen. Our baseline assumption is sometime in June. Exceptionally low interest rates will help spur the recovery. The strength of this recovery, however, will crucially depend on the damage suffered by the labour market. We expect the unemployment rate to surge into double-digits in all provinces this month before easing gradually thereafter. The longer unemployment stays high, the slower the housing market recovery will be. Our current view is the recovery will stretch into 2021 in most markets. <\/p>\n<h4>Odds of a major price drop are still low<\/h4>\n<p>Despite the rough patch ahead, we expect property values to generally hold up. We believe the initial position of strength\u2014current tight demand-supply conditions in most major markets\u2014will provide some cushion against a correction. Our base case scenario has the recent acceleration in home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal tapering off in the period ahead. The price outlook isn&#8217;t as rosy in the prairies, however, where softer market conditions and the plunge in crude oil prices are poised to further drive prices lower. <\/p>\n<p><em>RBC Senior Economist, Robert Hogue, joins the 10-Minute Take podcast to discuss his outlook on the Canadian housing market.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"166\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay\" src=\"https:\/\/w.soundcloud.com\/player\/?url=https%3A\/\/api.soundcloud.com\/tracks\/799675402&#038;color=%23000000&#038;auto_play=false&#038;hide_related=false&#038;show_comments=false&#038;show_user=true&#038;show_reposts=false&#038;show_teaser=true\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-23215\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See PDF with complete charts<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/housespecial-mar20.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_046\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Monthly Housing Repor April 2020 PDF\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Home resales plummeted in March and larger declines are expected in April, says RBC Economics; however, the shock will be temporary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":413,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,50],"tags":[11,17],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-monthly-housing-market-update","tag-economy","tag-housing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pandemic Throws Housing Market off Course - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Home resales plummeted in March &amp; larger declines expected in April, says RBC Economics; however, the shock to Canadian Housing Market Update will be 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href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Housing<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Housing Market Update<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Housing<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Housing Market Update<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Housing<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Housing<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 6 years ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on April 17, 2020","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on April 17, 2020 9:33 pm","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025 4:54 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/265"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}