{"id":406,"date":"2020-04-15T16:46:17","date_gmt":"2020-04-15T16:46:17","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-10-17T13:15:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T13:15:20","slug":"early-q1-gdp-reading-worse-than-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/early-q1-gdp-reading-worse-than-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"Early Q1 GDP Reading Worse than Thought"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Highlights:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Early estimate of Q1 GDP shows 10% annualized decline<\/li>\n<li>Economic activity down 9% (non-annualized) in March<\/li>\n<li>US retail sales, IP reports add some colour<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Recognizing the need for timelier measures of economic activity during the coronavirus crisis, Statistics Canada took the extraordinary step of releasing a March GDP &#8220;nowcast&#8221; this morning, about six weeks ahead of the official release. This early approximation based on available data suggests Canada&#8217;s economy shrank by 9% in March, the largest monthly decline on record dating back to 1961. That leaves Q1 GDP 10% lower (at an annualized rate) than the previous quarter\u2014yet another record, though one that will be smashed in Q2. A sharp slowdown heading into the current quarter and a further drop in April leaves our forecast for a 32% annualized decline in Q2 GDP looking as reasonable as any at this stage. A worse-than-expected Q1, though, adds some downside risk to our 2020 growth forecast (-4.9%) with the IMF&#8217;s projection from yesterday (-6.2%) looking a bit likelier. But we caution that it&#8217;s very early yet, and even this March GDP estimate needs to be taken with a handful of salt. We&#8217;ll get one more forecast <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/bank-of-canada-expanding-asset-purchases\/\">later this morning<\/a> when the Bank of Canada releases its own economic projections.<\/p>\n<p>StatCan&#8217;s nowcast didn&#8217;t feature any numbers beyond the headline reading\u2014industry detail was entirely qualitative. Many Canadians would have easily guessed at the sectors that were hardest hit: travel and tourism, restaurants, accommodation, non-food retail and entertainment (many of those details were mirrored in this morning&#8217;s US retail sales report, with overall sales down 8.7% in March). Government and education have also suffered from shutdowns. Health, food distribution, online retail and streaming were among the sectors seeing an increase in activity in March. In the energy sector, a collapse in prices and pullback in investment didn&#8217;t come with an immediate decline in production and transportation volumes though that&#8217;s surely on the way. There was little mention of the factory sector, though a 6.3% decline in US manufacturing output in March (also released this morning) shows Canada won&#8217;t be spared in that regard.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>StatCan&#8217;s data suggests Canada&#8217;s economy shrank by 9% in March, but RBC Economics warns the estimate should be taken with a handful of salt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":268,"featured_media":403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,93],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-data-flashes","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - 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