{"id":3306,"date":"2025-08-29T16:01:25","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T16:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2025\/08\/29\/us-week-ahead-payrolls-at-the-nexus-of-less-demand-and-supply-of-workers\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T19:19:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T19:19:07","slug":"us-week-ahead-payrolls-at-the-nexus-of-less-demand-and-supply-of-workers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-week-ahead-payrolls-at-the-nexus-of-less-demand-and-supply-of-workers\/","title":{"rendered":"US Week Ahead: Payrolls at the nexus of less demand and supply of workers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The job market likely furthered softened in August and we expect the release to continue to show evidence of both slowing cyclical demand and slowing structural supply of workers. Those forces should net out to our expectation of a cool but not frozen 64k jobs added in August<\/mark><\/strong>, and just like last month<\/a>, revisions will continue to add to volatility. We see the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3%.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Bigger picture, our forecast continues to see a rise in the unemployment rate towards 4.6% by Q1 2026 and enough cyclical weakness in the labor market for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting (our current base case is the first cut is in December). In historical context, however, a 4.6% unemployment rate at peak would suggest very limited slack in the U.S. job market, reflecting the dichotomy of an economic slowdown coupled with a structural floor under how weak the job market can get.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To parcel out these impacts, we\u2019ll be watching this particular Nonfarm Payrolls piece through 4 core lenses:<\/p>\n\n\n\n