{"id":2954,"date":"2025-04-09T20:51:19","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T20:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2025\/04\/09\/newfoundland-and-labrador-budget-2025-balance-delayed-until-2026-27-amid-record-spending\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:20:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T18:20:27","slug":"newfoundland-and-labrador-budget-2025-balance-delayed-until-2026-27-amid-record-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/newfoundland-and-labrador-budget-2025-balance-delayed-until-2026-27-amid-record-spending\/","title":{"rendered":"Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2025:\u00a0Balance delayed until 2026-27 amid record spending"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Newfoundland and Labrador projects a $372 million shortfall in 2025-26, delaying plans to balance by a year to 2026-27.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Expenditures are set to cross $11 billion mark, jumping 5.1% in 2025-26.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>This increase will surpass the solid 4.1% projected rise in revenues\u2014which will be boosted by higher oil and mineral production in the province.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A worsening deficit will further add weight to the province\u2019s debt burden, which is already the heaviest in the country.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-Q73TQlrbA\" class=\"everviz-Q73TQlrbA\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.nl.ca\/budget\/2025\/budget-speech\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Newfoundland and Labrador\u2019s 2025 budget<\/a>&nbsp;arrives amid global trade uncertainty, prompting the government to delay plans to balance the budget another year. It\u2019s the latest of a string of provinces that have punted budgetary balance commitments further down the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The budgetary shortfall is now projected to deepen to $372 million in 2025-26, more than half of which ($200 million) is coming from a new contingency allowance to address trade-related spending pressures. Some of the expenditure increase will be covered by higher revenues from natural resource production (regardless of ongoing trade uncertainty), but revenue gains won\u2019t be large enough to offset its spending plans which will keep the province\u2019s books in the red for another year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-strong-economic-growth-expected-despite-trade-uncertainty\">Strong economic growth expected despite trade uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite global headwinds, the 2025 budget rests on an optimistic economic outlook. Real GDP is forecasted to rise by 4.4% in 2025, marking one of the strongest years for growth in over a decade and the first multi-year streak of expansion since 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth will be driven by rising oil and gas production, alongside the anticipated launch of the Valentine gold mine. Together, these developments will support a $448 million increase (+35%) in offshore royalties and mining taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The province also expects long-term gains from the renegotiation of the 1969 Upper Churchill Contract with Quebec, which is projected to bring in an additional $17 billion in revenue over the life of the agreement to 2075\u2014averaging $340 million per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Downside risks to the economic outlook, however, remain high due to trade uncertainty. Lower than projected growth could bring down revenues , widening the deficit further in fiscal 2025-26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color\"><strong>Economic growth assumptions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"table-complex wp-block-rbc-complex-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><table><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\">2025<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>Real GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\">Budget 2025<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">4.4<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">1.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\">Budget 2024<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">6.9<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">7.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\">RBC<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">1.7<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">1.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>Nominal GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\">Budget 2025<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">4.3<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">3.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\">Budget 2024<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">3.7<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">6.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\">RBC<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">3.2<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Source: Newfoundland &amp; Labrador Department of Finance, RBC Economics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spending momentum picks up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Expenditures are projected to increase by $536 million (+5.1%) in 2025\u201326, pushing total spending above $11 billion. This represents a significant expansion as it far exceeds the projected rate of inflation (2.5%) and population growth (0.2%), suggesting roughly half of the expenditure increase is tied to new program spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Achieving balance by 2026\u201327 hinges on the government\u2019s ability to reverse course next year, cutting spending by 3.1% and holding that line through the end of the decade\u2014a tall order if trade tensions escalate and economic conditions worsen . Newfoundland and Labrador has little experience cutting spending outright with only two year-over-year spending declines recorded in the last twenty years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color\"><strong>Newfoundland &amp; Labrador&#8217;s consolidated fiscal plan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"table-complex wp-block-rbc-complex-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><table><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">($ Millions)*<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Estimate<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Forecast<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-priority=\"\"><\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2024\/25<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2025\/26<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2026\/27<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2027\/28<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2028\/29<\/td><td data-priority=\"\">2029\/30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>Total revenues <\/strong><br><strong>(less oil risk adjustment)<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,254<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,670<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,799<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong><strong>10,686<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>11,095<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>11,316<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>Total expenditures<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,506<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>11,042<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,703<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,650<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,630<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>10,632<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>Surplus\/(Deficit)<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>(252)<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>(372)<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>96<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>51<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>381<\/strong><\/td><td data-priority=\"\"><strong>571<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">*Numbers may not add due to rounding<br>Source: Newfoundland &amp; Labrador Department of Finance, RBC Economics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Net debt-to-GDP ratio to rise over next two years<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By our calculation, Newfoundland and Labrador\u2019s net debt burden is projected to rise to an estimated 44.4% in 2025-26 from 43.7% in 2024-25\u2014exceeding the 44% projected in last year\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the fiscal plan laid out in Budget 2025, Newfoundland and Labrador will continue to hold the heaviest debt burden in Canada, making the province the least fiscally flexible to buffer the economy from new shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-4cfv0HKS-\" class=\"everviz-4cfv0HKS-\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook and budget commentaries<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Newfoundland and Labrador projects a $372 million shortfall in 2025-26, delaying plans to balance by a year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":2423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,53],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2025:\u00a0Balance delayed until 2026-27 amid record spending - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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