{"id":2944,"date":"2025-03-31T20:31:33","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T20:31:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2025\/03\/31\/improving-housing-affordability-in-canada-takes-a-backseat\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:15:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T18:15:32","slug":"improving-housing-affordability-in-canada-takes-a-backseat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/housing-affordability\/improving-housing-affordability-in-canada-takes-a-backseat\/","title":{"rendered":"Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-qtr\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Homeownership costs see a fourth straight drop in Canada.<\/strong>&nbsp;An average household needed to allocate 55.9% of its income to cover mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities in Q4. That\u2019s down from an all-time high of 63.8% a year earlier.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>The decline only partly restored the massive loss of affordability during the pandemic.<\/strong>&nbsp;RBC\u2019s affordability measures are still at exceptionally stretched levels nationally. In many major markets, most Canadians face extremely challenging conditions for buying a home.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Lower mortgage rates brought relief from coast to coast.<\/strong>&nbsp;Interest rate cuts drove down RBC\u2019s measures in all markets we track in Q4. (A decline in the measure represents a gain in affordability.) Toronto and Vancouver recorded the largest drops.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p><strong>Further improvement will likely come in 2025, but it could be overshadowed by trade.<\/strong>&nbsp;We see the Bank of Canada cutting its policy rate until mid-year\u2014which should continue to take a load off ownership costs. But such a market friendly development may not spur potential buyers into action if U.S. tariff-related uncertainty significantly erodes confidence. The trade war is likely to loom large over the market near term.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/04\/Housing-affordability-share.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10598\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-lHRUgLGjX\" class=\"everviz-lHRUgLGjX\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-falling-rates-move-the-needle-in-the-right-direction\">Falling rates move the needle in the right direction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year\u2019s monetary policy pivot was a turning point for affordability in this country. The drop in fixed mortgage rates\u2014which started before the BoC\u2019s first cut in June as financial markets anticipated the shift\u2014set mortgage payments associated with a home purchase on a downward course following three years of rapid escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower rates accounted for more than four-fifths of the 7.7 percentage-point decline in RBC\u2019s national composite affordability measure since Q4 2023. Household income gains explained the remainder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-fHyZ9R0nf\" class=\"everviz-fHyZ9R0nf\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Cheaper borrowing costs moved the needle lower in every part of Canada\u2014generating larger savings in the pricier markets (Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The turning point couldn\u2019t have come soon enough. Skyrocketing prices between 2020 and early-2022, and then soaring interest rates as the BoC fought inflation caused ownership costs to balloon to crisis levels by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-protracted-recovery-process-underway\">Protracted recovery process underway<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s still a long way to go to fully restore affordability, though. The improvement in the past year reversed only a third of the deterioration that took place during the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We think additional rate cuts could raise that proportion to half by the end of this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-EAmYfrJZ3\" class=\"everviz-EAmYfrJZ3\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Any further progress gets trickier once rates stabilize, because after that it rests entirely on the evolution of home prices and household income (the denominator in RBC\u2019s affordability measures). Price drops or strong income gains would be required to keep the improving trend. However, we expect prices to continue rising gradually overall\u2014with some local exceptions\u2014as supply-demand conditions stay in balance, and wages grow modestly amid persistent labour market weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-policy-changes-will-help-eventually\">Policy changes will help\u2026 eventually<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We believe significant policy efforts initiated in recent years to boost housing supply will eventually have a positive impact on affordability. It\u2019s just the benefits of many of them\u2014including easing zoning restrictions or other administrative burdens\u2014will take a long time to play out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any boost to sentiment from lower interest rates and partial improvement in affordability has been quashed this year by tariff-related fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-trade-war-worries-overtake-affordability-issues\">Trade war worries overtake affordability issues<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The huge risk the U.S. trade war poses to Canada\u2019s economy\u2014with significant potential job losses in communities that highly depend on trade with the U.S.\u2014has prompted many market participants to adopt a wait-and-see approach. This led to a sharp slowdown in home resale activity in most of Canada in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see the housing market remaining on edge as long as tariff threats persist. Affordability consideration will likely take a backseat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"columbia\">Victoria: Buyers still face affordability hurdles despite improvement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Victoria saw a notable improvement in affordability in the past year with RBC\u2019s aggregate measure falling to 68.8% in Q4, an 11 percentage-point drop. Still, affordability remains a serious challenge, which continues to weigh heavily on buyers. The housing market recovery has lost substantial momentum this year after picking up steam in the fall. New listings rose nearly 20%, leading supply-demand conditions to loosen noticeably. If sustained, we expect this will moderate home price appreciation in the period ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vancouver-area-gradual-relief-from-record-high-costs\">Vancouver area: Gradual relief from record high costs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Affordability in Vancouver improved again in Q4 with RBC\u2019s measure falling 4.0 percentage points to 92.8%\u2014lowest level in nearly two years. This represents a meaningful reversal of the pandemic-era affordability erosion, yet ownership remains out of reach for many. A budding market rally late last year has since faltered as buyers and sellers retreat. Home resales are little changed from a year ago, but available supply has increased markedly\u2014especially amid soft demand. Such conditions are beginning to modestly erode property values, which had been mostly flat for about a year. We see the erosion process continuing in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"alberta\">Calgary: Still strong but in a better balance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Calgary has long been among the more robust markets in Canada, though it has shown signs of cooling in the past year. Trade uncertainty has been a further headwind, contributing to sales transactions slipping more than 12% from a year ago. Homebuyers have seen ownership costs decline, though only moderately. RBC\u2019s aggregate affordability measure at 41.5% is down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago, yet it\u2019s still well above the 38.8% long-term average. The good news is that rapid inventory rebuilding\u2014thanks in part to strong housing construction\u2014has rebalanced the market. This shift has considerably moderated price gains, which should drive further improvement in affordability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-edmonton-price-gains-stall-affordability-progress\">Edmonton: Price gains stall affordability progress<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The hectic pace of activity hasn\u2019t let up much\u2014in part because affordability compares favourably to other major markets. Home resales are up more than 4% from the same period last year, but could potentially be even higher if there was more inventory. Edmonton is one of the few markets where active listings still track lower, which sustains strong competition between buyers and upward price pressure. The downside is that affordability is barely getting better. In fact, RBC\u2019s aggregate measure stalled at 33.6% in Q4 as strong price growth offset the impact of lower rates. We expect slow improvement to persist in the near term while supply-demand conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"saskatchewan\">Saskatoon: All fired up<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A booming population continues to fuel housing demand with resales hovering above pre-pandemic highs. However, supply is struggling to keep up\u2014forcing buyers to bid up prices assertively. This has kept the benchmark price on a solid uptrend. Saskatoon\u2019s housing affordability improved modestly in Q4 with RBC\u2019s aggregate measure falling 0.4 percentage points from Q3 to 32.2%. The share of income needed to cover ownership costs remains within historical norms, but tight supply conditions suggest further price growth may slow future improvements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-regina-super-busy-and-affordable\">Regina: Super busy and affordable<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Regina retains its status as the most affordable market we track in Canada with an RBC aggregate measure of 26.1%. It\u2019s no surprise then that the market is very busy. Resales transactions are holding near record highs despite slipping slightly this year. A rise in newly completed units has helped contain home value appreciation, though upward pressure persists amid tight supply-demand conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"manitoba\">Winnipeg: Recovery on track<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Mounting economic uncertainty hasn\u2019t derailed the market recovery. Home resales and prices still track higher\u2014up 12% and 8% from a year ago, respectively\u2014propelled in part by solid population growth. The flow of supply has eased a little with new listings running some 3% below year-ago levels, which makes it a more competitive landscape for buyers. Winnipeg\u2019s affordability saw a small improvement in Q4 with RBC\u2019s aggregate measure declining 0.5 percentage points to 31.6%\u2014still above the long-run average (29.3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ontario\">Toronto area: High ownership costs weigh on activity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Owning a home in Toronto became more affordable over the past year. Lower interest rates contributed to a sharp 13.1 percentage point decline in RBC\u2019s aggregate measure to 70.8%. However, ownership costs remain exceptionally high, keeping many potential buyers sidelined. A rise in inventory has strengthened buyer leverage, particularly in the condo segment. This has led to modest price declines, and downward pressures could intensify. Activity has recently sunk to its lowest level this cycle as market participants hit pause in the face of trade turbulence, deteriorating labour markets and stretched affordability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ottawa-market-softens-amid-economic-uncertainty\">Ottawa: Market softens amid economic uncertainty<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The weight of ownership costs continued to ease in the Ottawa area in Q4. RBC\u2019s affordability measure dropped for a fourth consecutive time by 1.8 percentage points to 45.6%, reflecting lower mortgage rates and rising income. However, conditions remain stretched compared to historical levels. This is likely one of the factors restraining activity. Resales are down more than 6% this year. The threat of tariffs and a softer job market are no doubt also curbing the market\u2019s trajectory. So far, supply and demand have remained in balance, and prices continue to rise modestly. But any further weakening in demand could stall the recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"quebec\">Montreal area: Market heat poised to partly dissipate<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Montreal\u2019s affordability saw modest improvement in Q4 with RBC\u2019s aggregate measure falling to 48.2%, a 4.2 percentage point decline from a year ago. The market had been very active until trade turbulence put a sudden halt to the long rebound in activity since 2023. Supply-demand conditions are now easing, though it remains relatively tight. Earlier brisk demand and levelling inventories have increased competition between buyers and heated up prices. We expect some of this heat will dissipate in the period ahead. Any sizable economic shock from the trade war could accelerate this cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-quebec-city-rising-prices-limit-drop-in-ownership-costs\">Quebec City: Rising prices limit drop in ownership costs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The market carries substantial momentum as lower interest rates and strong population growth drive up demand. Affordability looks relatively favourable against many other markets\u2014including Montreal. Home resales are running some 8% above year-ago levels. And, with inventory continuing to shrink, upward price pressure is intense. In fact, gains in property values are among the strongest in the country. This has limited the improvement in affordability, however. RBC\u2019s aggregate measure at 33.8% is down only 1.4 percentage points from a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"atlantic\">Saint John: Stuck in a low gear<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Saint John\u2019s aggregate measure stands at 32.4%, down 2.3 percentage points from its record high in 2023. Ownership remains more accessible than in most other markets, but solid price gains have slowed progress toward restoring affordability and dampened the recovery in demand. Activity is stuck in a low gear amid slowing population growth, souring labour markets and an earlier rise in ownership costs. It could also be that sellers aren\u2019t willing to bend as the supply of homes for sale remains tight compared to demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-halifax-earlier-affordability-losses-still-sting\">Halifax: Earlier affordability losses still sting<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The massive loss of affordability during the pandemic still stings Halifax homebuyers despite a partial reversal in the past year. They\u2019ve been slow to return to the market since the BoC began cutting rates in June with home resales still down nearly 25% from pre-pandemic levels. Low inventory may also be a restraining factor. Interest rate cuts, a strong inflow of newcomers and a solid pace of job creation should be driving housing demand harder at this point\u2014especially since Nova Scotia is among the least exposed provinces to U.S. tariffs. Tight supply-demand conditions are likely to keep prices on an upward trajectory in the near term, which could restrain the pace of improving affordability. RBC\u2019s measure for Halifax eased 1.5 percentage points in Q4 to 43.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-st-john-s-firing-on-all-cylinders\">St. John\u2019s: Firing on all cylinders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The market is in full swing fuelled by growing demand spurred by positive economic and demographic trends. Home resales have surged 26% from a year ago to close to all-time highs, and prices have reached record levels\u2014up between 6% and 12% in the past 12 months depending on the measure. Trade uncertainty poses a downside risk, but low supply is likely to support further price gains ahead. Ownership costs remain relatively affordable with RBC\u2019s aggregate measure at 28.9%\u2014the second lowest among tracked markets. Modest price gains are expected to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-read-the-full-housing-trends-and-affordability-report-for-extensive-market-by-market-analysis\">Read the full Housing Trends and Affordability report for extensive market-by-market analysis.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns has-border-color has-grey-border-color is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-width:1px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/04\/gdp-table_faaaa9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10599\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading mar-t-dbl mar-l-dbl\" id=\"h-download-the-report\">Download the Report<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-a89b3969 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\"><div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-button btn before is-style-tertiary tertiary\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Housing-Affordability_0325.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-HousingAffordability-CanadianAnalysis-2944-ac1049e3\" data-dig-category=\"LP-HousingAffordability-CanadianAnalysis\" data-dig-action=\"button click\" data-dig-label=\"Download-https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Housing-Affordability_0325.pdf \">Download<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Robert Hogue<\/strong>&nbsp;is an Assistant Chief Economist, responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last year\u2019s monetary policy pivot was a turning point for affordability in this country<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":2941,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,46],"tags":[108,115,17],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-housing-affordability","tag-affordability","tag-canada","tag-housing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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