{"id":2940,"date":"2025-03-25T15:57:34","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T15:57:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2025\/03\/25\/quebec-budget-2025-record-deficit-and-a-long-and-conditional-path-to-balance\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:13:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T18:13:48","slug":"quebec-budget-2025-record-deficit-and-a-long-and-conditional-path-to-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/quebec-budget-2025-record-deficit-and-a-long-and-conditional-path-to-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Quebec Budget 2025:\u00a0Record deficit and a long and conditional path to balance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-qtr\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s budgetary shortfall will deepen to a record $13.6 billion in 2025-26 following a marginally shallower deficit in 2024-25 ($10.4 billion).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The plan to balance hinges on improving Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s revenue base and securing additional federal transfers, but still has gaps.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The province boosts its contingency reserve fund and announces $5.4 billion in support of innovation and economic revitalization over five years, in part, to hedge against trade-related shocks.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>A public expenditure review identifies $3 billion in savings by 2029-30, supporting a reduction in inflation-adjusted expenditures over the planning period.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Province loosens longer-term debt reduction targets as indebtedness shifts to a higher track.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-oM3ZerLOc\" class=\"everviz-oM3ZerLOc\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.finances.gouv.qc.ca\/Budget_and_update\/budget\/documents\/Budget2526_BudgetPlan.pdf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-2940-ad91e107\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s 2025 Budget\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s 2025 Budget<\/a>&nbsp;focuses on stimulating wealth creation and fostering innovation\u2014top priorities for both the short and longer terms that have been heightened by the current trade turbulence. Unlike the Coalition Avenir Quebec government\u2019s prior budgets, this edition opted for more targeted supports\u2014 particularly for businesses, healthcare, and education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the narrower focus, Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s deficit is expected to grow to $13.6 billion in 2025-26\u2014the largest in its history (in nominal terms). This larger shortfall primarily reflects increased allocations to the contingency reserve fund and postponement of the capital gains inclusion rate changes to January 1, 2026\u2014something the federal government recently abandoned entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The larger deficit follows a slightly smaller shortfall of $10.4 billion in 2024-25. Stronger-than-expected economic activity boosted revenues beyond initial projections, leaving the contingency reserve fund unused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As promised\u2014and as required by provincial law\u2014Budget 2025 provides a plan to return to balance by 2029-30. Achieving this goal hinges in large part on securing higher federal transfers and improving Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s revenue base by enhancing economic potential. These conditions may prove difficult in the current macroeconomic climate. And yet, this plan is still incomplete with a $2.5 billion gap persisting by the terminal year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-revenue-growth-tempered-by-economic-conditions\">Revenue growth tempered by economic conditions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Revenue growth is expected to be weak in 2025-26, increasing by just 0.7%. Trade disruptions are expected to dampen export activity and overall economic momentum. Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s baseline economic assumptions are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/economics\/economy-and-markets\/macroeconomic-outlook\/canadas-growth-prospects-brighten-in-2025-but-not-without-challenges\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-2940-ad91e107\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"in line with ours\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">in line with ours<\/a>&nbsp;and assume imposed U.S. tariffs will be in place for roughly 2 years and average 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A downside scenario assuming 25% across-the-board tariffs is provided for indicative purposes. It results in a contraction of 0.1% in GDP in 2025 and deeper deficit of $14.8 billion in 2025-26. This outcome, however, remains contained due to the $2 billion contingency reserve fund the province is setting aside for the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color\" id=\"h-quebec-economic-growth-assumptions\"><strong>Qu\u00e9bec economic growth assumptions<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"table-swipe wp-block-rbc-responsive-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\">2024<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2025<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Real GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>1.4<\/td><td>1.1<\/td><td>1.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024 Fall Economic Update<\/td><td>1.2<\/td><td>1.5<\/td><td>1.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2024<\/td><td>0.6<\/td><td>1.6<\/td><td>1.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBC<\/td><td>1.3<\/td><td>1.2<\/td><td>1.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Nominal GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>5.3<\/td><td>3.4<\/td><td>3.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024 Fall Economic Update<\/td><td>4.6<\/td><td>3.6<\/td><td>3.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2024<\/td><td>4.0<\/td><td>3.8<\/td><td>3.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBC<\/td><td>5.3<\/td><td>3.8<\/td><td>3.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-targeted-spending-measures-for-businesses-healthcare-and-education\">Targeted spending measures for businesses, healthcare and education<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2025 demonstrates a greater effort to control expenditures. Total expenditures are set to rise $2.5 billion (1.5%) in 2025-26, representing a small decrease after adjusting for inflation. Still, at $166 billion, expenditures remain well ahead of projected revenues, contributing to the large budgetary deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New spending measures focus on stimulating wealth creation, strengthening healthcare, and enhancing education, with associated costs of $5.4 billion, $3.9 billion, and $1.1 billion, respectively, over five years. This includes $4.1 billion in transitional assistance for businesses affected by U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government also plans to enhance the Qu\u00e9bec Infrastructure Plan (QIP) by $11 billion (7%), raising total infrastructure investment to $164 billion over ten years. These funds will target improvements in healthcare, education, and transportation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2025 contains a hefty $12.3 billion in additional measures over five years. But with the public expenditure review launched last year identifying $3 billion in savings by 2029-30, the net hit on the budget\u2019s bottom line over the fiscal planning period is expected to be to $9.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ongoing tensions over public sector wage demands pose a significant risk to the expenditure forecast, as future settlements could exceed current projections. Further delays or cancellation of the capital gains inclusion rate changes add another&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/provincial-budget-preview-preparing-for-uncertainty\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">layer of uncertainty<\/a>&nbsp;to the fiscal outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color\" id=\"h-quebec-s-consolidated-fiscal-plan\"><strong>Quebec&#8217;s consolidated fiscal plan<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"table-swipe wp-block-rbc-responsive-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">($ millions)<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Estimate<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Forecast<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td>2024\/25<\/td><td>2025\/26<\/td><td>2026\/27<\/td><td>2027\/28<\/td><td>2028\/29<\/td><td>2029\/30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total revenues<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>155<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>156<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>165<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>171<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>176<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>181<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Own-source revenue<\/td><td><strong>125<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>126<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>133<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>138<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>143<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>148<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Federal transfers<\/td><td>31<\/td><td>32<\/td><td>32<\/td><td>33<\/td><td>33<\/td><td>33<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total expenditures<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>163<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>166<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>170<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>174<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>176<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>179<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Program expenses<\/td><td>153<\/td><td>156<\/td><td>160<\/td><td>162<\/td><td>164<\/td><td>167<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debt service<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>12<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Contingency reserve<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>&#8211;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2.0<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2.0<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1,5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1.5<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Accounting<\/strong> <strong>Surplus\/(Deficit)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-8.1<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-11.4<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-7.1<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-4.2<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-1.3<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>0.4<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Gap to be bridged<\/strong><\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td>&#8211;<\/td><td><strong>1.0<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2.5<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposits into the Generations Fund<\/td><td>2.4<\/td><td>2.2<\/td><td>2.4<\/td><td>2.5<\/td><td>2.6<\/td><td>2.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Budgetary balance for the purposes of the Balanced Budget Act<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-10.4<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-13.6<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-9.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-5.7<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-1.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>0.1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Net Debt-to-GDP (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>38.7%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>40.4%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>41.5%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>41.9%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>41.0%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>39.8%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Source: Minist\u00e8re des Finances du Qu\u00e9bec, RBC Economics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-indebtedness-picture-dims\">Indebtedness picture dims<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget 2025 shows some deterioration in the province\u2019s indebtedness position over most of the fiscal plan. That\u2019s despite stronger-than-expected growth in 2024 which brightened the near-term picture. Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s debt burden is now expected to rise to 38.7% in 2025-26 and continue climbing to 41.9% in 2027-28. This level comes just shy of the 43.1% reported during the pandemic when stimulus packages and weak economic growth drove up the ratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s relatively high debt burden remains a vulnerability as it limits the province\u2019s fiscal flexibility to respond to unexpected shocks, including ongoing U.S. trade tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s deteriorating financial picture may also raises scrutiny among credit rating agencies which raised red flags over last year\u2019s budget. A credit rating downgrade would make debt servicing&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/economics\/featured-insights\/governments-face-higher-interest-costs-when-straying-from-fiscal-anchors\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-2940-ad91e107\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"more costly\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">more costly<\/a>&nbsp;for Qu\u00e9bec\u2014a line item that is already projected to eat up nearly $10 billion in spending in 2025-26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-Kxx_fWFOf\" class=\"everviz-Kxx_fWFOf\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook and budget commentaries.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse33a29988\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse33a29988\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-2940-33a29988\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Disclaimer\"><div>Disclaimer<\/div><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse33a29988\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p>This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s 2025 Budget focuses on stimulating wealth creation and fostering innovation\u2014top priorities for both the short and longer terms that have been heightened by the current trade turbulence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":2411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,27],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-quebec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quebec Budget 2025:\u00a0Record deficit and a long and conditional path to balance - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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