{"id":2936,"date":"2025-03-20T14:01:05","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T14:01:05","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:12:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T18:12:22","slug":"saskatchewan-budget-2025-maintaining-a-surplus-despite-trade-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/saskatchewan-budget-2025-maintaining-a-surplus-despite-trade-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Saskatchewan Budget 2025:\u00a0Maintaining a surplus despite trade risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-qtr\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Saskatchewan intends to maintain a small $12 million surplus in 2025-26 after a deeper than expected deficit of $660 million 2024-25.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>No contingency fund was included in the plan to account for uncertainty related to the duration and impact of tariffs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Government moved forward with tax cuts, costing $250 million in forgone revenue in fiscal 2025-26.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The roll off of one-time costs (like crop insurance claims) will allow expenditures to settle below their 2024-25 level (-0.1%) without large cuts to program spending.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The roll off of one-time costs (like crop insurance claims) will allow expenditures to settle below their 2024-25 level (-0.1%) without large cuts to program spending.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-kQJAMO6wu\" class=\"everviz-kQJAMO6wu\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>Saskatchewan\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/budget.saskatchewan.ca\/pub\/documents\/2025-26%20Budget%20materials\/2025-26-provincial-budget---web.pdf\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2025 Budget<\/a>&nbsp;forecasts a modest $12 million surplus, reflecting solid revenue growth and a slight dip in expenditures due to the roll off of one-time expenses. This is expected to put its books back in the black after recording a deeper than expected $661 million deficit in 2024-25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Surpluses are expected to be modest at first\u2014$12 million in fiscal 2025-26\u2014and gradually grow to $217 million by the end of the fiscal plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Saskatchewan has opted not to include a contingency fund in its budget despite the risk of trade-related disruptions. Modest surpluses and continued revenue growth, however, provide some flexibility to manage unforeseen spending needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-revenue-growth-driven-by-resource-royalties\">Revenue growth driven by resource royalties<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The government delivered on its election promise of tax relief by lowering the basic personal, spousal, dependent child, and seniors supplement by $500 per year over the next four years. These efforts are set out in the Saskatchewan Affordability Act, which is estimated to cost $250 million in forgone revenue this year. The changes come alongside other affordability and growth-enhancing measures, including increasing the disability tax credit by 25% and maintaining the small business tax rate at 1% permanently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with numerous tax cuts, revenues are expected to grow $648 million (3.2%) in fiscal 2025-26. A significant portion f this growth\u2014nearly one third\u2014is set to come from non-renewable resource revenues ($197 million), particularly uranium. Significant growth in this revenue stream reflects improved profitability, increased sales volumes, and continued weakening of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, which should bode well for exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/provincial-budget-preview-preparing-for-uncertainty\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">We\u2019ve argued before<\/a>&nbsp;that resource royalty volatility remains a key source of uncertainty for revenues\u2014something that will be heightened amid trade tensions, which impact exports as well as the exchange rate. It\u2019s worth noting that our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/canadas-growth-prospects-brighten-in-2025-but-not-without-challenges\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">nominal GDP forecast<\/a>&nbsp;is slightly less optimistic than assumptions underpinning this budget, posing further downside risk to revenue projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color\" id=\"h-economic-growth-assumptions\"><strong>Economic growth assumptions<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"table-swipe wp-block-rbc-responsive-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\">2024<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2025<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Real GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>1.6<\/td><td>1.8<\/td><td>2.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2024<\/td><td>1.0<\/td><td>1.8<\/td><td>2.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBC<\/td><td>1.9<\/td><td>1.9<\/td><td>2.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Nominal GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>4.2<\/td><td>2.6<\/td><td>3.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>2.1<\/td><td>3.2<\/td><td>3.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBC<\/td><td>4.1<\/td><td>1.9<\/td><td>2.6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of Finance, RBC Economics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-one-time-costs-roll-off-the-ledger-in-2025-26\">One-time costs roll off the ledger in 2025-26<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Expenditures are expected to decrease $25 million (-0.1%) in fiscal 2025-26, largely due to the roll-off of crop insurance claims from earlier droughts, which resulted in a higher-than-anticipated claims. This is expected to reduce agricultural expenses by $174 million in 2025-26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn\u2019t the only expense category that will lighten in the upcoming fiscal year. The settlement of the teachers\u2019 collective bargaining agreement also added to one-time cost adjustments in 2024-25 due to retroactive salary adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Health expenses also exceeded the budget allocation by $382 million in 2024-25 due to increased service demand. This, however, is expected to stabilize moving forward as population growth slows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Saskatchewan anticipates higher financing charges. These are expected to grow by $110 million in fiscal 2025-26, reflecting the slightly heavier debt burden. This is the largest increase of any expense category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-rbc-dark-blue-tint-color has-text-color\" id=\"h-saskatchewan-s-consolidated-fiscal-plan\"><strong>Saskatchewan&#8217;s consolidated fiscal plan<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"table-swipe wp-block-rbc-responsive-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">($ millions)<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Estimate<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Forecast<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td><strong>2024\/25<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2025\/26<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2026\/27<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2027\/28<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2028\/29<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total revenues<\/strong><\/td><td>20,408<\/td><td>21,056<\/td><td>21,835<\/td><td>22,643<\/td><td>23,481<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Total expenditures<\/strong><\/td><td>21,069<\/td><td>21,044<\/td><td>21,759<\/td><td>22,499<\/td><td>23,264<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Surplus\/(Deficit)<\/strong><\/td><td>(660.6)<\/td><td>12.2<\/td><td>75.8<\/td><td>143.9<\/td><td>216.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Net Debt-to-GDP (%)<\/strong><\/td><td>13.9<\/td><td>14.6<\/td><td>14.9<\/td><td>15<\/td><td>14.8<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of Finance, RBC Economics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-maintaining-a-strong-fiscal-stance\">Maintaining a strong fiscal stance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Saskatchewan\u2019s net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise modestly from 14.6% in 2025-26 to 15% in 2027-28 before returning to a downtrend. It continues to boast of one of the lowest debt burdens and highest credit ratings among Canadian provinces, a testament to its prudent financial management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This strong fiscal position provides it with the flexibility to respond to emerging risks\u2014including trade related\u2014without needing to implement broad-based cuts to essential programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-lbwNvSwqy\" class=\"everviz-lbwNvSwqy\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-light-grey-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-light-grey-background-color has-background is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook and budget commentaries.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse31adc1f3\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse31adc1f3\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-2936-31adc1f3\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Disclaimer\"><div>Disclaimer<\/div><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse31adc1f3\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p>This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saskatchewan\u2019s 2025 Budget forecasts a modest $12 million surplus, reflecting solid revenue growth and a slight dip in expenditures due to the roll off of one-time expenses. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":2426,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,28],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-saskatchewan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Saskatchewan Budget 2025:\u00a0Maintaining a surplus despite trade risk - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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