{"id":2933,"date":"2025-03-19T19:22:08","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T19:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2025\/03\/19\/new-brunswick-budget-2025-shifting-away-from-surplus\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:10:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T18:10:55","slug":"new-brunswick-budget-2025-shifting-away-from-surplus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/new-brunswick-budget-2025-shifting-away-from-surplus\/","title":{"rendered":"New Brunswick Budget 2025:\u00a0Shifting away from surplus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-black-disc\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>New Brunswick projects a $599 million deficit in 2025-26 following a $399 million shortfall in 2024-25, marking a shift from the recent streak of surpluses.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>General government programs, debt charges, health and a new contingency reserve account for most of the spending increase.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>Nominal gross domestic product growth assumptions are more conservative than ours, but do not reflect the full implementation of tariffs or potential Canadian countermeasures\u2014adding downside risk to the revenue outlook.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p>The budget anticipates a heavier net debt burden over the fiscal plan, reaching a post-pandemic high of 28.5% by 2028-29. This still compares well to other provinces.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-DSS18p-rn\" class=\"everviz-DSS18p-rn\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p>New Brunswick\u2019s 2025 Budget breaks a long string of surpluses, reflecting growing economic uncertainty, and increased spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest shortfall of $599 million is expected in fiscal 2025-26, mainly driven by increased program spending and a new $50-million contingency allowance to protect against unforeseen events\u2014including those related to the U.S. trade war. The move away from surpluses started with the significant downward revision to the 2024-25 fiscal balance from a $41 million surplus to a $399 million shortfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-trade-and-population-growth-risks-weigh-on-outlook\">Trade and population growth risks weigh on outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Moderating population growth has been a noted challenge for New Brunswick\u2019s outlook, but trade uncertainty could have an even more pronounced impact. Together, these challenges are keeping growth projections below the national average in 2025 and 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, revenues are expected to rise by $527 million (4%) in 2025-26\u2014$150 million short of the anticipated expenditure increase. While the nominal GDP assumptions underpinning these revenue forecasts are more conservative than ours , they do not fully account for U.S. tariffs or potential Canadian countermeasures, which are a risk to the forecast. Escalation of the trade war would further dim the province\u2019s economic outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-economic-growth-assumptions\"><strong>Economic Growth Assumptions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"table-swipe wp-block-rbc-responsive-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\">2024<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2025<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Real GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>1.5<\/td><td>1.1<\/td><td>1.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2024<\/td><td>0.7<\/td><td>1.7<\/td><td>1.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBC<\/td><td>1.1<\/td><td>1.0<\/td><td>1.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Nominal GDP growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2025<\/td><td>3.9<\/td><td>3.2<\/td><td>2.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget 2024<\/td><td>4.3<\/td><td>3.2<\/td><td>3.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBC<\/td><td>4.1<\/td><td>4.4<\/td><td>4.4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Source: New Brunswick Department of Finance, RBC Economics<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-program-spending-adds-weight-to-bottom-line\">Program spending adds weight to bottom line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Total expenditures are set to rise $677 million (4.9 %) in 2025-26\u2014with more than a third coming from general government programs ($156 million) and public debt charges ($90 million). Public debt charges are expected to approach the $700 million mark in 2025-26, nearly three times the budget allocated to New Brunswick\u2019s Housing Corp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Healthcare spending is another notable source of expenditure growth, rising $75 million in fiscal 2025-26. The increased allocation comes largely from community care clinics ($30 million) and physician compensation ($16 million).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rapid expenditure increase is addressed in Budget 2025 with acknowledgement of the unsustainability of current spending patterns. Whether spending cuts materialize, however, remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-brunswick-s-consolidated-fiscal-plan\"><strong>New Brunswick&#8217;s Consolidated Fiscal Plan<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<table class=\"table-swipe wp-block-rbc-responsive-table-block is-style-table-striped\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">($ millions)<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Estimate<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Forecast<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><th scope=\"col\"><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td><br>2024\/25<\/td><td><br>2025\/26<\/td><td><br>2026\/27<\/td><td><br>2027\/28<\/td><td><br>2028\/29<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total revenues<\/td><td>13,266<\/td><td>13,792<\/td><td>14,247<\/td><td>14,749<\/td><td>15,260<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total expenditures<\/td><td>13,665<\/td><td>14,341<\/td><td>14,694<\/td><td>15,053<\/td><td>15,404<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Contingency<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>50<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surplus\/(Deficit)<\/td><td>-399<\/td><td>-599<\/td><td>-447<\/td><td>-304<\/td><td>-144<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Net debt-to-GDP (%)<\/td><td>25.6<\/td><td>26.6<\/td><td>27.7<\/td><td>28.3<\/td><td>28.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Source: New Brunswick Department of Finance, RBC Economics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-sm-font-size\">Note: Contingency allowance undisclosed beyond 2025-26.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-hlf\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-slight-rise-in-debt-load-won-t-jeopardize-past-progress\">Slight rise in debt load won\u2019t jeopardize past progress<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>New Brunswick\u2019s fiscal position has been a source of strength in recent years. Concerted efforts were made to shrink the debt burden in recent decades\u2014which is now the lowest it\u2019s been in more than 30 years. This gives it more flexibility to navigate uncertain times without large and broad-based spending cuts to government programs and services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In response to the current climate, the government plans to deviate from its declining net debt-to-GDP trajectory. The debt burden is now projected to rise over the course of the fiscal plan, reaching 28.5% by 2025-29. Despite the increase, New Brunswick will continue to have one of the lightest debt burdens among all provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-R0aljXjS4\" class=\"everviz-R0aljXjS4\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook and budget commentaries.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse6fd8e1bb\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse6fd8e1bb\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks-2933-6fd8e1bb\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ProvincialandFiscalOutlooks\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Disclaimer\"><div>Disclaimer<\/div><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse6fd8e1bb\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p>This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Brunswick projects a $599 million deficit in 2025-26 following a $399 million shortfall in 2024-25, marking a shift from the recent streak of surpluses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":2421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[105,115,52],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-budget","tag-canada","tag-new-brunswick"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Brunswick Budget 2025:\u00a0Shifting away from surplus - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New Brunswick projects a $599 million deficit in 2025-26 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