{"id":2911,"date":"2025-03-11T15:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2025\/03\/11\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:58:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T18:58:18","slug":"yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n
\n

The U.S. administration has described a compelling future U.S. economy\u2014one that\u2019s deleveraged from the public sector, recalibrated global trade to benefit U.S. households, and implemented new tax policies designed at least in theory to support broad based growth. But the challenge is, of course, getting there. And perhaps, what is weighing most on these goals is the growing recognition that the bridge from now to that desired outcome isn\u2019t seamless or guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve long been believers of the U.S. \u201csoft landing\u201d theme. Strong household balance sheets, a structurally tight labor market, reduced interest rate sensitivity, government spending and solid corporate profits have fuelled a relatively resilient aggregate economy. Broadly speaking, we continue to believe the U.S will avert a recession and produce moderate, albeit sub-trend, growth in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, over the past month, some \u201cyellow flags\u201d have popped up in the data that are worth monitoring closely\u2014some more concerning than others. Of course, one month of data isn\u2019t enough to shift an entire base case forecast for the world\u2019s most resilient economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, we surmise it is uncertainty itself weighing on much of these indicators\u2014an uncertainty that could reverse or change\u2014but also risks bleeding into the real economy in more tangible ways if left unchecked. Indeed, early signals of lower growth and higher inflation are consistent enough across several sectors to merit analysis. Here are some yellow flags that are worth paying close attention to in the coming months for the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sentiment data has deteriorated but it will matter most if high income households pull back<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

An array of consumer and business survey data has been showing signs of growing economic discomfort. The University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment fell in January after rising for five consecutive months, and the Conference Board consumer confidence declined in both December and January following a near record jump in October. Meanwhile, the NFIB Survey of Small Business optimism retraced more of its post-election burst in February with only a net 15% of businesses planning to create new jobs in the next three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"inflation<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re noticing this shift. And yet, putting too much emphasis on soft data has led many economists astray in the past year as they have done a poor job of leading with \u201chard\u201d data or aggregate data on which markets move and policy is largely based. Much of this divide between soft and hard data, from our perspective, has been driven by a growing spread between lower- and middle-income Americans, who are struggling under the weight of higher interest rates and a worse inflation hit compared to higher-income Americans, who are in much stronger economic shape and account for the larger share of aggregate spending, which is what we see in the hard data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acknowledging the \u201cK-shaped\u201d nature of the U.S. economy doesn\u2019t discount lower- and middle-income Americans, but it does mean that survey data won\u2019t necessarily help us forecast the aggregated, total spending ahead. In this current downtrend in sentiment, there are two particular implications. First, we remain cautious about using soft data to forecast hard data as the \u201cK-shaped\u201d nature of the economy persists. Second, and perhaps more importantly, we are monitoring for developments that will weigh, in particular, on high-income Americans such as the recent retracement in the stock market. A pullback among high-income consumers would merit a shift in our U.S. consumer outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RBC Capital Markets Chief Equity Strategist Lori Calvasina has noted, \u201cNet bulls on the weekly [American Association of Individual Investors] survey came in at -37.8% last week, taking the four-week average to -27.3%. This indicator is now more than two standard deviations below the long-term average, a level associated with major stock market drawdowns (1990, 2009, 2022).\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This development could create a negative wealth effect for higher-income consumers that shows up more meaningfully in macro data in the months ahead, producing a circuitous feedback where corporate earnings are revised lower, stock portfolios lose value, and high-income consumers pull back further on spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation expectations are popping higher in an environment when it was already a concern<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, some surveys are seeing an uptick in inflation expectations even as energy prices are lower\u2014an atypical combination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Importantly, these are appearing in consumer sentiment surveys as well as in business surveys such as the ISM Manufacturing and Services indices. Added to this, the Federal Reserve\u2019s February 2025 Beige Book<\/a> said prices had climbed \u201cmoderately,\u201d but also that firms \u201cexpected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our general view is that inflation will moderate but remain sticky above 2% off the back of rising goods prices, stall out in the improvements in shelter inflation, and resilient wage gains in a tight labor market. While we have yet to see one month of increased inflation expectations in survey data translate into broader market-based expectations or material behavioural changes, the risk of this occurring on the horizon is worth watching for. Close monitoring of month-over-month changes in inflation data will become more important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Government job cuts are already showing up in labor data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

These yellow flags are not solely isolated to sentiment. Government layoffs are showing up in jobs data, and potentially bleeding into other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. added 151,000 jobs<\/a> in February, which is far from problematic, but the federal government cut 10,000 jobs, which is likely to accelerate. Meanwhile, Challenger Job Cuts jumped 103% year-over-year. Initial jobless claims suggest the federal job cuts are modest so far, but the number of initial claims filed by federal workers more than doubled in the week of Feb. 22, and will likely continue to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Government<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Secretary Treasury Scott Bessent highlighted in his speech<\/a> at the Economic Club of New York that one of the administration\u2019s goals is to de-lever the public sector in order to support the private sector and government job losses could be transitioned to private sector hiring. We\u2019ve covered<\/a> how that process could be tricky and lagged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what is also becoming clear is the indirect ways that government cuts may filter through the economy via contractors and uncertainty around future funding. For example, news that some universities are freezing hiring is another example of potential bleed through. We continue to develop methods of measuring the (negative) multiplier effects of government job cuts and will produce more updates ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growing evidence higher rates are weighing on economy via consumer debt and housing activity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Consumers added over US$56 billion to their non-real estate personal debt loads in December and January with much of the increase coming from credit card spending. As a result, they are now spending 2.5% of their monthly disposable income on non-mortgage monthly interest payments\u2014a share that is at risk of rising with the Fed on pause amid rising credit card bills, already high auto payments, and the burden of student loan repayments. This dynamic is weighing disproportionately on younger households more reliant on debt and credit to finance major purchases. This growing debt burden is also beginning to show up in the hard data with real personal spending declining by more than 5% at an annualized rate in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One sector, in particular, that continues to see anemic activity is the housing market. Affordability measures are near record highs, meaning home ownership will remain out of reach for many young households. What\u2019s worse is the primary mechanism to lower mortgage rates (i.e., the Fed lowering interest rates) is unlikely to improve affordability, because of the well-documented lock-in effect wherein existing homeowners have little incentive to leave favourable mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Trade shock is in play creating distortions but larger drags on growth are ahead<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tariff trade distortions are already in play. As we highlighted in How to measure a tariff shock<\/a><\/em>, we expect two things to occur before a tariff is even applied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, an uncertainty shock that weighs on activity\u2014plenty evidence of that above. Second, a front-loading of trading activity that creates a surge in imports in anticipation of future price increases. We witnessed this in January\u2019s trade data, even though, there were some nuances to the reporting related to gold bar imports. Still, it has mechanically pushed the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow forecast for Q1 gross domestic product into negative territory. We qualify this more as a distortion rather than a representation of a cyclical slowdown\u2014recessions don\u2019t start with surges in import activity. But, combined with the yellow flags above, it won\u2019t help optimism for growth and will likely continue to distort a range of variables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Frances Donald<\/strong> is the Chief Economist at RBC and oversees a team of leading professionals, who deliver economic analyses and insights to inform RBC clients around the globe. Frances is a key expert on economic issues and is highly sought after by clients, government leaders, policy makers, and media in the U.S. and Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mike Reid<\/strong> is a Senior U.S. Economist at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC’s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Over the past month, some \u201cyellow flags\u201d have popped up in the data that are worth monitoring closely\u2014some more concerning than others.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":1243,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[94,81],"tags":[65,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-featured-analysis","category-us-analysis","tag-inflation","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Over the past month, some \u201cyellow flags\u201d have popped up in the data that are worth monitoring closely\u2014some more concerning than others.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-11T15:56:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-31T18:58:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"7250\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"3500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aidansmithedgell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aidansmithedgell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aidansmithedgell\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd\"},\"headline\":\"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-11T15:56:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-31T18:58:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\"},\"wordCount\":1546,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Inflation\",\"Labour Market\",\"U.S.\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Featured Analysis - US\",\"U.S. Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\",\"name\":\"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching - RBC Economics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-11T15:56:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-31T18:58:18+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80\",\"width\":7250,\"height\":3500},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\",\"name\":\"RBC Economics\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd\",\"name\":\"aidansmithedgell\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e247c7ada7a3507bb5f106189e928be8cf5b67a3b04e14a610c1d079d7f57847?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e247c7ada7a3507bb5f106189e928be8cf5b67a3b04e14a610c1d079d7f57847?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e247c7ada7a3507bb5f106189e928be8cf5b67a3b04e14a610c1d079d7f57847?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"aidansmithedgell\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/aidansmithedgell\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching - RBC Economics","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching","og_description":"Over the past month, some \u201cyellow flags\u201d have popped up in the data that are worth monitoring closely\u2014some more concerning than others.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/","og_site_name":"RBC Economics","article_published_time":"2025-03-11T15:56:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-03-31T18:58:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":7250,"height":3500,"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"aidansmithedgell","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"aidansmithedgell","Est. reading time":"8 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/"},"author":{"name":"aidansmithedgell","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd"},"headline":"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching","datePublished":"2025-03-11T15:56:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-31T18:58:18+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/"},"wordCount":1546,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80","keywords":["Inflation","Labour Market","U.S."],"articleSection":["Featured Analysis - US","U.S. Analysis"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/","name":"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching - RBC Economics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80","datePublished":"2025-03-11T15:56:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-31T18:58:18+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80","width":7250,"height":3500},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/yellow-flags-the-cracks-forming-in-the-u-s-economy-that-were-watching\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u2018Yellow flags\u2019: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we\u2019re watching"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/","name":"RBC Economics","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd","name":"aidansmithedgell","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e247c7ada7a3507bb5f106189e928be8cf5b67a3b04e14a610c1d079d7f57847?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e247c7ada7a3507bb5f106189e928be8cf5b67a3b04e14a610c1d079d7f57847?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e247c7ada7a3507bb5f106189e928be8cf5b67a3b04e14a610c1d079d7f57847?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"aidansmithedgell"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/aidansmithedgell\/"}]}},"author_meta":{"display_name":"aidansmithedgell","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/aidansmithedgell\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80&w=300","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/US-Inflation-Watch-Banner-Image_Banner-wide.png?quality=80","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Featured Analysis - US<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S. Analysis<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Featured Analysis - US<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S. Analysis<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Inflation<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Labour Market<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/us-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S.<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Inflation<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Labour Market<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">U.S.<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 1 year ago","modified":"Updated 3 weeks ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on March 11, 2025","modified":"Updated on March 31, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on March 11, 2025 3:56 pm","modified":"Updated on March 31, 2026 6:58 pm"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/189"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2911"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2911\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3916,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2911\/revisions\/3916"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2911"},{"taxonomy":"rbc_econ_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbc_econ_content_type?post=2911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}