{"id":2754,"date":"2024-10-25T17:25:56","date_gmt":"2024-10-25T17:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2024\/10\/25\/how-canadas-new-immigration-targets-will-impact-the-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-10-16T16:05:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T16:05:16","slug":"how-canadas-new-immigration-targets-will-impact-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/how-canadas-new-immigration-targets-will-impact-the-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"How Canada\u2019s new immigration targets will impact the economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"carousel-one\" class=\"carousel-wpr side-controls mar-b-0\" style=\"background: #fff\" role=\"region\">\n<div class=\"carousel-inner eh-wpr\">\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 1 of 9<\/div>\n<div class=\"cover-top pad-lr\">\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"sp-para pad-lr\">The Canadian government has been under growing pressure to align the inflow of newcomers to the country with current labour market needs and infrastructure capacity\u2014which prompted a massive reversal of the post-pandemic immigration plan set by the federal government. <\/p>\n<p class=\"p-ins pad-lr\">Ambitious immigration targets were originally put forward to tackle labour market imbalances and financial stress on government balance sheets from an aging population.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p-ins pad-lr\">In the years after the pandemic, policies around work permit eligibility were relaxed to address short-term labour supply shortages. International study permit allocations also expanded as post-secondary institutions turned to international students as a funding source to make up for cuts in government transfers and domestic tuition caps or freezes. This lead to a surge in new non-permanent residents to Canada, which surpassed the one million mark in 2023.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sp-img\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/Icon-blurbs-for-immigration-piece-10.25-08_v2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1250\" height=\"1250\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 2 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-xqIVcFhLq\" class=\"everviz-xqIVcFhLq\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-01.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62817\" \/><\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) cut permanent resident <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/immigration-refugees-citizenship\/news\/2024\/10\/20252027-immigration-levels-plan.html\">targets<\/a> 20% from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025 and plans to keep it on a downtrend after that with 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the cuts, new targets for permanent residents will still be well above levels seen before the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 3 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-Ub9G2jB-F\" class=\"everviz-Ub9G2jB-F\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-06.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62818\" \/><\/li>\n<li>For the first time ever, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has released targets for non-permanent residents in an effort to control rapid population growth following a surge of arrivals.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 4 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-PdAuUy0xU\" class=\"everviz-PdAuUy0xU\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-07.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62819\" \/><\/li>\n<li>The IRCC intends to reduce the number of non-permanent residents in the country to 5% of the total population. They represented 7.3% of the population as of July. This implies a net reduction of nearly 900,000 non-permanent residents over the next two years.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 5 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-pP6yVWnau\" class=\"everviz-pP6yVWnau\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-02.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62820\" \/><\/li>\n<li>More than 40% of overall permanent resident admissions next year are expected to be from non-permanent residents, who are transitioning to permanent residency. Still, the stock of net new permanent and non-permanent residents is expected to drop in 2025 and 2026 under the latest plan. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 6 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-bf3eGqqwg\" class=\"everviz-bf3eGqqwg\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-05.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62821\" \/><\/li>\n<li>Roughly 1.3 million non-permanent residents would be required to either leave Canada or transition into permanent residency in 2025 under the current targets. That\u2019s more than double the gross outflow we\u2019ve seen in the last two years. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 7 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-nr5I1jeqS\" class=\"everviz-nr5I1jeqS\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-04.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62846\" \/><\/li>\n<li>Permanent residents and non-permanent residents accounted for 98% of population growth in 2023 and 2024. The targeted reduction in the number of newcomers would slightly shrink Canada\u2019s population by 0.2% in each of the next two years, according to IRCC.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 8 of 9<\/div>\n<div id=\"everviz-HP874GfTh\" class=\"everviz-HP874GfTh\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"bg-blue-sp\">\n<ul class=\"info-con\">\n<li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/icon_01-03.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"625\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62822\" \/><\/li>\n<li>Limiting immigration to the extent proposed would sharply slow down the increase in new households. This will help realign housing demand with supply\u2014so long as homebuilding can be sustained near current levels. Reducing the supply gap would go a long way toward alleviating the intense pressure many Canadians are under when looking for a home they can afford.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-item\" style=\"background: #e7eef1\">\n<div class=\"sp-page\">Slide 9 of 9<\/div>\n<p class=\"sp-para pad-lr\">These new immigration targets will help rebalance Canada\u2019s housing market, but a shift to strict population controls will come with <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/not-addressing-population-aging-can-be-very-costly\/\">consequences<\/a> as well. <\/p>\n<p class=\"sp-para pad-lr\">The policy shift is putting Canadian demographics back on an aging trend, and thereby, limiting the number of hours worked available in the economy without necessarily lowering the unemployment rate. That\u2019s because the cooling in demand arising from having fewer consumers in the country will offset any shrinkage in the labour force, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sp-para pad-lr\">Significantly reduced population growth will also weigh on government balance sheets as an accelerated aging population puts upward pressure on healthcare costs and pension obligations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sp-para pad-lr\">Plans to lower population growth, if fully and successfully implemented, could subtract nearly a percentage-point from our growth forecast for Canada over the next three years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"carousel-ctrl\">\n<p><button class=\"carousel-prev\" data-dig-id=\"enterprise-460gftfDIgHj-2\">Go to previous slide<\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"carousel-indicators\"><\/div>\n<p><button class=\"carousel-next\" data-dig-id=\"enterprise-460gftfDIgHj-1\">Go to next slide<\/button><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<style 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