Toronto area \u2014 More sellers come to market<\/h2>\n
More sellers are coming out of the woodwork in Toronto\u2019s housing market with another big influx of new listings in June. There were nearly 18,000 new units put up for sale, representing a 9.3% increase (seasonally adjusted) from May. High rates of seller activity wasn\u2019t a one-off either. The influx was the third consecutive monthly increase\u2014keeping the number of active listings well above their year ago level (68%). Condo apartments led the way again with an 84% annual increase, while single-detached homes saw a lesser, but still significant 56% rise. A slight uptick in sales activity (4.2%) from May helped absorb some of the new inventory on the market, but not enough to keep active listings from reaching a 14-year high of 23,600 in June. The recent lift in activity suggests the Bank of Canada\u2019s June 5th<\/sup> rate cut<\/a> didn\u2019t go unnoticed. Still, sales activity continues to sit 13% below its year ago level. Prices are in a state of flux. The slight uptick in the composite MLS benchmark price in June (0.4%) did little to reverse the steeper price declines that came last fall, keeping prices down 4.6% from a year ago. Price dips have been steepest for apartments, down 4.7% from a year ago, particularly in the 416 area (Toronto proper) and Durham region. We think it\u2019ll take steeper interest rate cuts before prices and activity in Toronto heat up again.<\/p>\n Montreal\u2019s housing market saw more action this June. Transactions increased an estimated 4% from May\u2014halting three consecutive months of deteriorating activity. At the same time, sellers released more listings in the market. A similar increase in supply preserved Montreal\u2019s supply-demand market dynamic\u2014keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio relatively stagnant. Similar jumps in buyer and seller activity did little to chip away at existing inventory, which has been growing over the course of the year. We estimate active listings are now 24% above their year ago level, which is keeping competition between buyers from heating up the market. Indeed, the median price for single-family homes have come down since May (-1.2%) and decelerated marginally for condo apartments. We think inventories are likely to continue trending higher in Montreal. That should keep a lid on price appreciations in the months ahead.<\/p>\n An uptick in sales in June has offset some of the decline in transactions last month. We estimate a 5% monthly \u00a0(seasonally adjusted) increase kept sales lingering around their 2024 high. But that still isn\u2019t enough to bring sales above their year-ago level. We still need to see another month or two of solid activity before we can comfortably characterize the increase as a bounce back in market activity. The lift to sales activity was met with an even larger increase in new listings, which we estimate jumped 9.5% from May. That\u2019s kept active listings on the rise, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio down to its lowest since January 2023. Stagnant market dynamics also kept price growth slowly decelerating for most of this year. The large boost to new listings last month, however, brought monthly prices down slightly for the first time since November. The composite MLS benchmark home price index is now just 0.5% above a year ago. Like Toronto, \u00a0prices held up better for lower density homes in the Greater Vancouver Area. We expect the influx of multi-unit dwellings is playing a role in the pricing dynamics as more availability relaxes some of the competition for attached and apartment dwellings. In fact, almost all the growth in new listings over the last 12 months has come from medium and high-density housing. The number of single-detached homes for sale, on the other hand, is virtually unchanged from a year ago. We expect inventories to build further \u00a0in the months ahead as budget constrained buyers wait for more rate cuts before entering the market.<\/p>\n Another increase in sales this June brought sales activity up to a five month high (seasonally adjusted). Sales activity over the last two months more than offset the sharp dip recorded in April, making the softness this spring look modest relative to other major Canadian markets. Price appreciations have slowed since the spring, but are still robust by historical standards and continue to outpace all other major markets \u00a0by a longshot. The MLS composite home price index is now 8.5% above last year with price appreciation concentrated in row and apartment dwellings (17% y\/y). Single and semi-detached homes saw a lesser-but still robust 12% annual gain. We think a turning point for the Bank of Canada\u2019s monetary policy was enough to entice more buyers to market as explosive population growth \u00a0continues to build up demand. Even though affordability in Calgary has eroded dramatically in recent years, it\u2019s still among the most affordable<\/a> of the major markets we track\u2014giving buyers an edge compared to other major markets in Ontario and B.C. Still, mounting budgetary pressures is likely to keep a lid on market activity in the months ahead, supporting a gradual increase rather than spike in Calgary\u2019s market activity.<\/p>\nMontreal area \u2014 Market dynamics stay stagnant<\/h2>\n
Vancouver area \u2014 Hanging in balance<\/h2>\n
Calgary \u2014 Tight competition keeps prices up<\/h2>\n
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