{"id":2431,"date":"2024-03-27T14:35:45","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T14:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2024\/03\/27\/ontario-budget-2024-balancing-priorities-not-the-books\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:40","slug":"ontario-budget-2024-balancing-priorities-not-the-books","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2024-balancing-priorities-not-the-books\/","title":{"rendered":"<b>Ontario Budget 2024:<\/b> Balancing priorities, not the books"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Province anticipates $9.8 billion deficit, scrapping last year\u2019s plan for a surplus ($200 million) in 2024-25.<\/li>\n<li>Return to balance has been delayed two years to fiscal 2026-27.<\/li>\n<li>Revenue growth is expected to slow to a crawl in 2024-25 (0.6%) as Ontario\u2019s economic outlook weakens. <\/li>\n<li>Infrastructure expansion remains an investment priority. <\/li>\n<li>Ontario is on track to meet two out of the three self-imposed fiscal anchors in 2024-25.<\/li>\n<li>Net debt-to-GDP is revised higher and now set to increase until fiscal 2025-26.  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"everviz-table-KPishTdZY\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Erasing progress made in last year\u2019s budget<\/h2>\n<p>The word \u201cbalance\u201d appeared several times in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/2024-ontario-budget-en.pdf\">2024 Ontario Budget<\/a> despite red ink splayed over the books for the next two fiscal years. The buzzword refers mainly to balancing of priorities\u2014like housing, municipal infrastructure support and making life more affordable\u2014rather than provincial finances.<\/p>\n<p>The Ontario government is now planning for the deepest deficit in a decade, outside of the pandemic years. The $9.8 billion shortfall in 2024-25 is expected to be more than three times deeper than the 2023-24 deficit ($3.1 billion) and replaces the anticipated $200 million surplus announced in last year\u2019s budget\u2014even after shrinking the contingency reserve fund. Budget 2024 takes a detour just one year after touting plans for a <a href=\"https:\/\/budget.ontario.ca\/2023\/brief.html\">speedy return to fiscal balance<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-bh2Aiaheg\" class=\"everviz-bh2Aiaheg\"><\/div>\n<p>Slower than expected revenue\u2014particularly from personal income taxes\u2014are playing a big role in the budget shortfall. In fact, total revenue is expected to remain relatively unchanged at $206 billion from the 2023-24 revenue estimate , reflecting expectations for weaker economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>Total expenditure, on the other hand, is set to grow to $215 billion (3.5%)\u2014further widening the gap between government spending and income in the fiscal year ahead.<\/p>\n<p>The province is now expecting a higher net debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25 relative to previous estimates. The new fiscal plan will also keep the debt burden on a higher trajectory during most of the fiscal plan, flirting with the upper bound (40%) of the net debt-to-GDP fiscal limit set in Budget 2023. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">There seems to be \u2018enough\u2019 money to go around <\/h2>\n<p>Total expenditure is now set to reach $215 billion, an increase of $7.2 billion (3.5%) from the 2023-24 estimate. Of that increase, other programs (mainly related to infrastructure supports) are set to see more than half ($4.7 billion) of the new funding. A good chunk of this ($1 billion) will go to support the implementation of h<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ontario.ca\/page\/ontario-connects-making-high-speed-internet-accessible-in-every-community\">igh-speed internet across all Ontario communities<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A portion of the additional $4.7 billion that\u2019s been allocated to other programs will also fund Ontario\u2019s new <a href=\"https:\/\/news.ontario.ca\/en\/release\/1004332\/ontario-investing-over-18-billion-to-build-more-homes\">Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program<\/a> ($1.8 billion over three years) which will support core infrastructure projects including roads and water systems. This, we expect, comes as welcome news for municipalities after <a href=\"https:\/\/ero.ontario.ca\/notice\/019-6172\">government-imposed cuts to residential development charges<\/a> came into effect last year, hampering municipal revenue collection.<\/p>\n<p>Interest on debt ($1.1 billion) and health ($1 billion) will eat up another $2.1 billion in new spending, reflecting interest costs and a growing debt burden. Retroactive pay to public  sector workers will take up a significant portion of new health spending after the wage restraint legislation, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.ontario.ca\/en\/backgrounder\/52522\/protecting-a-sustainable-public-sector-for-future-generations-act-2019\">Bill 124<\/a>, was ruled unconstitutional.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-vECHVhUpf\" class=\"everviz-vECHVhUpf\"><\/div>\n<p>Post-secondary funding is one of two expense categories to see a cut in 2024-25 (-$400 million). This reflects the recently announced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/immigration-refugees-citizenship\/news\/2024\/01\/canada-to-stabilize-growth-and-decrease-number-of-new-international-student-permits-issued-to-approximately-360000-for-2024.html\">cap on foreign international students<\/a>, which is expected to <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/proof-point-international-student-cap-wont-immediately-cut-rental-demand-in-canada\/\">impact international student enrollment<\/a> in Ontario in the upcoming fiscal year.   <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Delayed economic rebound to weigh on revenue<\/h2>\n<p>The province was expecting Ontario\u2019s economy to rebound this year at the time of Budget 2023, but few economic indicators now support this projection. Growth projections for 2024 have since been revised lower to reflect the province\u2019s weakening economic backdrop and are closely aligned with <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/the-canadian-economic-slowdown-is-not-over\/\">our own<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-table-DwRlOfE26\"><\/div>\n<p>Revenue projections have also been revised substantially lower from previous baselines with a cyclical trough now expected in fiscal 2024-25. Revenue is now expected to grow just marginally to $206 billion (0.6% from 2023-24 estimate). Soft personal income taxes will be the main factor restraining revenue growth as Ontario\u2019s labour market wavers.<\/p>\n<p>The government made little changes to its tax system despite the planned spending spree. In fact, new adjustments have come in the form of additional cuts. The government intends to keep the 5.7 cent per litre <a href=\"https:\/\/news.ontario.ca\/en\/release\/1004350\/ontario-extending-gas-tax-cuts-to-keep-costs-down-for-families\">gas tax cut<\/a> until the end of the calendar year\u2014costing the province $620 million in lost revenue in 2024-25. Elimination of the wine basic tax (effective April 1, 2024) will cost an additional $8 million in the upcoming fiscal year.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Investing in transportation <\/h2>\n<p>The budget includes capital investment of $103 billion over four years, including $26.2 billion in fiscal 2024-25. Transportation will remain a priority as in previous years\u2014eating up more than half (56%) of planned capital spending.<\/p>\n<p>Public transit investments ($10.7 billion) will account for the lion\u2019s share in 2024-25. This includes funding support for GO Transit service increases and advancing work on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrolinx.com\/en\/projects-and-programs\/ontario-line\">Ontario Line<\/a> among other initiatives. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Flirting with the limits of its fiscal anchors<\/h2>\n<p>The Ontario government maintains the three fiscal anchors outlined in Budget 2023 (net debt-to-GDP below 40%, net debt-to-revenue below 200%, and interest on debt-to-revenue below 7.5%). The latest fiscal plan, however, already violates one of them (net debt-to-revenue) and is flying very close to the upper bounds of another (net debt-to-GDP).<\/p>\n<p>We hope to see the Ontario government keep its fiscal plans within self-imposed guidelines in the future\u2014especially given its leniency relative to other provinces.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-table-C5rya4XdF\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Staying near the top of Canada\u2019s provincial debt burden <\/h2>\n<p>Budget 2024 reverses some of the earlier strides made in reducing the province\u2019s debt burden. It now expects the net debt-to-GDP ratio to increase to 39.2% in 2024-25 from an estimated 38% in 2023-24\u2014and continuing upwards until fiscal 2025-26.<\/p>\n<p>The province has left little wiggle room for itself with the debt burden now peaking at 39.5% in 2025-26. This isn\u2019t an ideal situation given the uncertain economic outlook and the potential revenue risk. Wage settlements from Bill 124 could further elevate spending, adding risk to the expenditure side of the ledger.<\/p>\n<p>Credit rating agencies may not look fondly at the budget, given the regression in the province\u2019s fiscal guidelines. Let\u2019s hope the economic situation turns around quickly so that the Budget 2025 brings the government back on track.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-E_eLAb8r8\" class=\"everviz-E_eLAb8r8\"><\/div>\n<hr>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">h2.title-text{font-size: 2.8rem;font-weight: 400;line-height: 1.2;margin-top: 36px;}.image-sm{width: 90%!important;margin: 0 auto;display: flex;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Province anticipates $9.8 billion deficit, scrapping last year\u2019s plan for a surplus ($200 million) in 2024-25. Return to balance has been delayed two years to fiscal 2026-27. Revenue growth is expected to slow to a crawl in 2024-25 (0.6%) as Ontario\u2019s economic outlook weakens. Infrastructure expansion remains an investment priority. Ontario is on track to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":300,"featured_media":2429,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ontario Budget 2024: Balancing priorities, not the books - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-budget-2024-balancing-priorities-not-the-books\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ontario Budget 2024: Balancing priorities, not the books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Province anticipates $9.8 billion deficit, scrapping last year\u2019s plan for a surplus ($200 million) in 2024-25. 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