{"id":2422,"date":"2024-03-20T14:02:56","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T14:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2024\/03\/20\/new-brunswick-budget-2024-planning-a-surplus-for-the-seventh-year-in-a-row\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:40","slug":"new-brunswick-budget-2024-planning-a-surplus-for-the-seventh-year-in-a-row","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/new-brunswick-budget-2024-planning-a-surplus-for-the-seventh-year-in-a-row\/","title":{"rendered":"<b>New Brunswick Budget 2024:<\/b> Planning a surplus for the seventh year in a row"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>New Brunswick projects a $41 million surplus in 2024-25\u2014marking the seventh year it\u2019s kept the books in the black.<\/li>\n<li>It will sustain rapid expenditure growth (6.4%) before slowing spending in the out years of the fiscal plan.<\/li>\n<li>Revenue growth is set to more than double (4.7%) from the previous fiscal year due to robust income from taxation and higher federal transfers.<\/li>\n<li>The budget anticipates a higher net debt burden over the course of the fiscal plan relative to Budget 2023 but will keep the net debt-to-GDP on a downward trajectory.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">No surprises to the bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>New Brunswick\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/main-estimates-2024-2025-budget-principal.pdf\">2024 Budget<\/a> kept expectations for a modest $41 million surplus in 2024-25\u2014marking a seventh consecutive surplus year in the province. Its latest estimate for the 2023-24 surplus was upwardly revised to $247 million\u2014seven times higher than the $35 million expected in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/2023-2024_second_quarter_report.pdf\">Q2 fiscal update<\/a> released last quarter. That\u2019s the fourth year in a row that the province has exceeded its fiscal surplus projection.<\/p>\n<p>High inflation, economic uncertainty, and robust population growth have tested the precision of provincial forecasts\u2014including those put out by the government. But we see provincial budget estimates capturing expenditures and revenues more accurately as these trends normalize.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-eDToH5yM9\" class=\"everviz-eDToH5yM9\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Healthcare and housing funding take a backseat to debt charges<\/h2>\n<p>Total expenditures are set to rise $744 million (6.4%) in 2024-25 with half the increase coming from education\u2014both post-secondary and early childhood learning ($226 million), and general government ($148 million).<\/p>\n<p>Increased funding for social development will account for an additional $109 million in the upcoming fiscal year and includes greater investment for seniors and long-term care ($126 million) and income security ($40 million). Other programs such as child welfare and youth services, however, are set to see a funding decline (-$9.5 million).<\/p>\n<p>Public debt charges are also expected to take up a relatively large share of the expenditure increase ($66 million). Save for the above-mentioned expense categories, public debt charges are set to see the largest dollar increase in 2024-25\u2014outpacing the combined funding increase for housing ($62 million) and healthcare ($1.7 million).<\/p>\n<p>The budget kept healthcare spending virtually flat from 2023-24 despite expectations for the population to increase another 2% this year. Healthcare funding increases are still set to lag the inflation rate and population growth over the last two years, even with a sizable 13% funding increase in last year\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Consumer resilience sustains strong revenue growth<\/h2>\n<p>New Brunswickers hold the lowest ratio of household debt to disposable income in the country\u2014a point of strength <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/the-canadian-economic-slowdown-is-not-over\/\">that will cushion the province<\/a> from a sharp economic downturn, boding well for provincial revenues too.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, own-source provincial income (largely from taxation) is poised to grow another 4.8% in 2024-25. Federal transfers are also expected to pick up another 4.4% in the upcoming fiscal year as its population takes up a larger share of Canada\u2019s demographic pie. This should give total provincial revenue a boost to $13 billion\u2014matching expenditure growth in the upcoming fiscal year. The province plans to keep up revenue and expenditure over the remainder of the fiscal plan, delivering small surpluses in 2025-26 and 2026-27.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-table-rAh1m0iZ6\"><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Infrastructure enhancements to support a growing province<\/h2>\n<p>The latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/2024-2025-capital-estimates-budget-de-capital-2024-2025.pdf\">capital plan<\/a> includes $3.6 billion over three years\u2014a third of which ($1.2 billion) is set to be spent in the upcoming fiscal year. This marks a $200 million increase from the 2024-25 capital expenditure announced in last year\u2019s capital budget, reflecting elevated costs due to unusually high inflation as well as the need to accommodate a growing population.<\/p>\n<p>Education is set to see the largest funding increase in absolute dollar terms\u2014$62 million. About $50 million will go to improvements and land acquisition for schools, and another $10 million will be invested to begin construction on six new schools in the province.<\/p>\n<p>Transportation and infrastructure will eat up another $60 million in new costs. About $50 million will be invested in maintenance and improvement of public infrastructure while the remaining $10 million is set to accommodate higher prices for material and labour of existing projects.<\/p>\n<p>Public health will see a funding increase of $37 million in 2024-25 compared to spending intentions set out in last year\u2019s capital budget. The extra funding will support ongoing renovations and improvements to the healthcare facilities.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">On track for longer-term fiscal sustainability<\/h2>\n<p>New Brunswick has made remarkable efforts to better its fiscal position over the last decade, and Budget 2024 seemed to keep that agenda rolling. New Brunswick\u2019s debt burden is still expected to fall middle of the pack relative to other Canadian provinces despite a planned increase in net debt-to-GDP. <\/p>\n<p>It now expects its net debt-to-GDP to reach 26.7% in 2024-25 (up from 24.2% in budget 2023), inching lower to 25.6% in 2026-27. We continue to see this as a sustainable path forward despite the heavier debt load. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-9eRzbRS4m\" class=\"everviz-9eRzbRS4m\"><\/div>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">h2.title-text{font-size: 2.8rem;font-weight: 400;line-height: 1.2;margin-top: 36px;}.image-sm{width: 90%!important;margin: 0 auto;display: flex;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Brunswick projects a $41 million surplus in 2024-25\u2014marking the seventh year it\u2019s kept the books in the black.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":2420,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Brunswick Budget 2024: Planning a surplus for the seventh year in a row - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New Brunswick projects a $41 million surplus in 2024-25\u2014marking the seventh year it\u2019s kept 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