{"id":2347,"date":"2024-01-29T05:54:36","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T05:54:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2024\/01\/29\/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:41","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:41","slug":"canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/special-housing-reports\/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada&#8217;s housing market outlook: A tale of two halves in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Interest rates will continue to dictate the outcome of Canada\u2019s housing market in 2024 with the first and second halves showing different pictures. We expect slow activity and softer prices to persist in the early part of the year as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/BOCrateJan2024.pdf\">Bank of Canada<\/a> maintains its policy rate at a two-decade high and <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/high-rates-and-prices-make-it-less-affordable-to-own-a-home-in-canada\/\">home ownership<\/a> stays out of reach for many potential buyers. But, a <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/ordinary-pain\/\">pivot toward rate cuts<\/a> mid-year will get the wheels turning faster over the second half or perhaps even sooner. There will be a lot of pent-up demand to satisfy in the market once confidence returns, which could heat things up in a hurry. However, poor affordability conditions will restrain the recovery and make it a gradual liftoff. The larger window of opportunity for buyers is likely to open only after interest rates have dropped materially\u2014something we foresee in the latter stages of 2024 or into 2025. That\u2019s especially the case for first-time buyers who may be more financially constrained. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-dNX05Cf_s\" class=\"everviz-dNX05Cf_s\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/dNX05Cf_s\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Upside for supply<\/h2>\n<p>Improving sales prospects are bound to attract more sellers. Mortgage renewal payment shocks could also prompt more owners to put properties on the market. An influx of sellers would keep supply-demand conditions in balance, and temper any upward pressure on demand. For-sale inventories have been rebuilding over the past couple of years after reaching historical lows earlier in the pandemic. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Market to be a little busier in 2024<\/h2>\n<p>We project home resales in Canada to rebound 9.2% year-over-year to 484,400 units in 2024\u2014partially reversing massive declines of 25.1% in 2022 and 11.1% in 2023. That number of transactions would still fall short of the level reached before the pandemic in 2019 (490,900 units). We expect the recovery to strengthen in 2025 to 562,100 units\u2014a gain of 16%.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-Uvs63nb51\" class=\"everviz-Uvs63nb51\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/Uvs63nb51\/?v=4\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p><!--for h2 tag--><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">More ground to recover in B.C. and Ontario<\/h2>\n<p>The housing market varies considerably across the country and this is unlikely to change in the year ahead. Crushing home ownership costs have significantly depressed home resales in British Columbia and Ontario. There isn\u2019t much more vigour in Quebec. But other provincial markets have been broadly resilient. Activity remains near or above pre-pandemic levels in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and most of Atlantic Canada.<\/p>\n<p><!--for h2 tag--><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Rebound already taking shape in Alberta and Saskatchewan<\/h2>\n<p>We expect lower interest rates in the second half of 2024 to lift activity from coast to coast. A market uptrend is in fact already taking shape in Alberta and Saskatchewan\u2014setting both up for above-average resales growth this year of 13.5% and 9.4%, respectively. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Broader strengthening in second half<\/h2>\n<p>Other provinces are likely to turn a corner by the summer. We forecast residential transactions to rebound modestly this year in B.C. (6.4%) and Ontario (7.7%). It will be even more robust east of Ontario with growth rates as high as 15.8% in Prince Edward Island, 15.5% in Nova Scotia and 10.2% in Quebec. We think it will take bigger rate cuts or deeper price drops to make a meaningful difference for buyers in expensive markets.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-ScXqRTOuq\" class=\"everviz-ScXqRTOuq\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/ScXqRTOuq\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">No quick turnaround for prices<\/h2>\n<p>Our outlook for prices calls for the national RPS Home Price Index (HPI) to ease further by 1.0% this year, following a 2.6% decline in 2023. We see the market turnaround having a greater impact in 2025 when the HPI is forecast to rise 3.1%. In this scenario, the national index would remain below its 2022 peak throughout the two-year projection horizon. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-QpSp9DFQH\" class=\"everviz-QpSp9DFQH\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/QpSp9DFQH\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Provinces at different points of price cycle<\/h2>\n<p>Home prices across the provinces will run the gamut this year. We project gains in Alberta (2.2%), New Brunswick (0.7%), Nova Scotia (0.2%) and Saskatchewan (0.1%). But, there will be losses in Ontario (-2.0%), Manitoba (-1.8%), Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.6%), B.C. (-0.3%) and Quebec (-0.2%). No change is expected for P.E.I.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-IH6WQUirO\" class=\"everviz-IH6WQUirO\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/IH6WQUirO\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<p>Next year looks more uniform with moderate price advances projected in every province.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Booming population vs. poor affordability<\/h2>\n<p>Major forces are working in opposite directions in the housing market. On one side, booming population growth sustains strong underlying demand for homes (including rentals). On the other end, high housing costs restrict many Canadians\u2019 path to homeownership. In 2024, that path is likely to widen once interest rates fall meaningfully. The severe loss of affordability\u2014arising from soaring prices earlier in the pandemic and the run-up in interest rates since March 2022\u2014has been the dominant force in the past two years plunging the market into a deep correction and causing a significant buildup in pent-up demand.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-9gQT_fk36\" class=\"everviz-9gQT_fk36\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/9gQT_fk36\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<p>We believe the federal government\u2019s recent decision to cap the issuance of study permits to international students for two years will have a marginal impact on overall homebuyer demand in Canada. But pressure on local rental markets near post-secondary institutions in Ontario and B.C. could ease as a result.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Mortgage renewal payment shock<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/real-estate\/mortgages\/mortgage-holders-cope-loan-renewals-banks\">Steep payment increases<\/a> that await fixed-rate mortgage holders at term renewal will hit many Canadians hard. These increases could be too much for some owners who may have to sell. But we see the risk of a wave of distressed sellers as contained. Most mortgage holders have been stringently stress-tested against a spike in rate\u2014qualifying at a rate at least 2 percentage points above the rate they received\u2014at origination. Indeed, this prudent factor has significantly contributed to maintaining mortgage delinquencies at a historical low in this country to date. In any case, for-sale inventories have plenty of room to rise before they reach problematic levels. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-c6N1DwmJI\" class=\"everviz-c6N1DwmJI\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/c6N1DwmJI\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"title-text\">Homebuilding key to longer-term balance<\/h2>\n<p>While we don\u2019t expect the current booming rate of population growth to be sustained, demographic factors are likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future in Canada. They could easily heat up the housing market to an uncomfortable degree again once the cyclical downturn has run its course. Whether it happens will come down to the supply response. We estimate Canada will need to grow its housing stock by an average of 315,000 units every year between now and 2030 just to keep up with household formation. That\u2019s more than a third above the pace of housing completions in the past few years (which ranged between 220,000 and 240,000 units annually). Needless to say it\u2019s a tall order, especially considering the labour challenges the construction industry is facing. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"everviz-table-Fdk4WxuIF\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/Fdk4WxuIF\/?v=9\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"everviz-table-uHnSGSMzE\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/uHnSGSMzE\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div class=\"img w-mob-100\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-30186\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See PDF version of report<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" style=\"text-decoration: none;\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/Canadian-Housing-Market-Forecast-Update-2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\n<p><em><b>Robert Hogue<\/b> is an Assistant Chief Economist at RBC responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies. He joined RBC in 2008.<\/em><\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">h2.title-text{font-size: 2.8rem;font-weight: 400;line-height: 1.2;}.chart-title {font-weight: 500; color: #588886!important;text-align: center;line-height: 1.2;margin: 40px auto 5px auto;font-size: 25px;}.chart-subtitle{font-weight:500;text-align:center;color:#899299;font-size:18px;}.source-text {font-size: 14px;text-align: center;line-height: 1.2;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interest rates will continue to dictate the outcome of Canada\u2019s housing market in 2024. We expect slow activity and softening prices in the early part of the year as the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate high.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":2345,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-special-housing-reports"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canada&#039;s housing market outlook: A tale of two halves in 2024 - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/canadas-housing-market-outlook-a-tale-of-two-halves-in-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Canada&#039;s housing market outlook: A tale of two halves in 2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Interest rates will continue to dictate the outcome of Canada\u2019s housing market in 2024. 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