{"id":2273,"date":"2023-11-02T13:43:07","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T13:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/11\/02\/ontario-fall-fiscal-update-strikes-a-more-sombre-tone\/"},"modified":"2023-11-02T13:43:07","modified_gmt":"2023-11-02T13:43:07","slug":"ontario-fall-fiscal-update-strikes-a-more-sombre-tone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-fall-fiscal-update-strikes-a-more-sombre-tone\/","title":{"rendered":"Ontario fall fiscal update strikes a more sombre tone"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"title-text\">Highlights from Ontario&#8217;s Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"all-list\">\n<li>Ontario boosted its deficit projection from $1.3 billion to $5.6 billion this fiscal year despite expecting slightly stronger economic growth since Budget 2023.<\/li>\n<li>The higher deficit this year partly reflects a weaker than anticipated result in the last fiscal year. Indeed, the 2022-23 Public Accounts showed a deficit (-$5.9 billion) that was more than two times deeper (-$2.2 billion) than set out in Budget 2023. This pushed revenues and expenditures to a less advantageous starting point.<\/li>\n<li>A number of tax cuts and exemptions are keeping downward pressure on revenues. These include the HST exemption on purpose-built rental housing, a 6-month extension to the gas tax cut, and the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit \u2013 which are slated to cost the province an estimated $333 million in foregone revenue.<\/li>\n<li>Expenditure projections for FY 2023-24 have grown $1.7 billion (+0.8%) from Budget 2023. This comes almost exclusively from home and community care, programs for homelessness, and a top up of the Contingency Fund. Expenditures projections are then unchanged from Budget 2023 beyond FY 2023-24.<\/li>\n<li>Plans for a balanced budget in FY 2024-25 have been replaced with a $5.3 billion deficit. Ontario now expects to balance the budget (running a small $0.5 billion surplus) a year later in FY 2025-26.<\/li>\n<li>The net debt-to-GDP ratio was revised higher by 0.6 percentage points to 38.4% in FY 2023-24 relative to Budget 2023. Though abiding by the 40% maximum ratio the government set out for itself, the province has little wiggle room left to maintain this fiscal anchor in the face of any unexpected shock.<\/li>\n<li>Ontario\u2019s nominal GDP forecasts (3.6% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024, 4.2% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026) represent a more optimistic outlook compared to our own <a href=\"http:\/\/click.website.rbc.com\/?qs=30e9a1865517ade1abd381019527ee7eecab8511ea83d3d367aec9f32572370dae22174fb58f46771304d7c99db328138b751278bd77c22c\">reading<\/a> for the province. A weaker than expected economic environment risks keeping Ontario in the red for longer.<\/li>\n<li>Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy announced efforts to address infrastructure extensions and capacity enhancements with a $3 billion infrastructure bank. Hoping to attract more private capital to the province, the bank\u2019s focus will be on long-term care, energy, housing, and transportation.<\/li>\n<li>To the relief of Ontario municipalities, the bank is also set to support municipal infrastructure and transportation. After <a href=\"http:\/\/click.website.rbc.com\/?qs=30e9a1865517ade108ceb2e5f8bf987c5206b82e4275bca918bb93ec3e357cbc6c4ecb756502edcf318db00e156e36a0f8b59ffedaf2ae83\">freezing development charges<\/a> (a substantial source of municipal revenue), the fund will doubtlessly come as welcome news &#8211; though will still fall short of the <a href=\"http:\/\/click.website.rbc.com\/?qs=30e9a1865517ade15fe47ec8bf1d00dcbb26a5382b2928107e5b2880fb066f6644f45b0cf96323e41d02085302220cba686e259e3b1dae2c\">$4.9 billion hole <\/a>the Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) estimates would be required to close the infrastructure gap.<\/li>\n<li><strong><u>Bottom line:<\/u><\/strong> Ontario\u2019s 2023 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review paints a slightly weaker fiscal picture for the province than Budget 2023 did this spring. The deterioration began with a deeper deficit in the 2022-23 Public Accounts, bringing the province\u2019s bottom line to a less favourable starting point. With higher deficits in FY 2023-24 and a delayed rebalancing of the books (to FY 2025-26), the latest projections represent a weaker outlook for the province\u2019s indebtedness position. This risks leaving Ontario with less fiscal flexibility in the face of an unexpected shock.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"everviz-2Vo7sloY9\" class=\"everviz-2Vo7sloY9\"><\/div>\n<hr>\n<p><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong> is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook and budget commentaries.<\/em><\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">h2.title-text{font-size: 2.7rem;font-weight: 400;line-height: 1.2;margin-top:0;}.all-list{margin:0 0 30px 0;padding:0;}.all-list li{margin-left:30px;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ontario boosted its deficit projection from $1.3 billion to $5.6 billion this fiscal year despite expecting slightly stronger economic growth since Budget 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":300,"featured_media":2272,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ontario fall fiscal update strikes a more sombre tone - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ontario boosted its deficit projection from $1.3 billion to $5.6 billion this fiscal year despite expecting slightly stronger economic growth since 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