{"id":2260,"date":"2023-10-13T20:43:21","date_gmt":"2023-10-13T20:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/10\/13\/home-prices-edge-lower-in-canada\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:41","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:41","slug":"home-prices-edge-lower-in-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/home-prices-edge-lower-in-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"Home prices edge lower in Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The fall season is shaping up to be a relatively quiet period for Canada\u2019s housing market.  Early evidence in September confirmed that higher interest rates continue to restrain real estate activity across most of the country\u2014with Alberta once again bucking the trend with its sustained vigour. Home resales fell 1.9% m\/m nationwide, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.<\/p>\n<p>This retrenchment takes place at a time when more sellers are coming to market. New listings have increased in each of the last six months, and in September surpassed their pre-pandemic level by 10%.<\/p>\n<p>A sharp easing of supply-demand conditions since summer has brought most markets into better balance, while tipping Ontario into a buyer\u2019s market. This has relieved the upward pricing pressure that built in the spring. Canada\u2019s aggregate MLS Home Price Index in fact fell slightly month-over-month in September (-0.3%) for the first time since March. We expect prices to soften further through the remainder of this year and possibly into early next as market conditions continue to tilt in favour of buyers. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-GKzage1ZR\" class=\"everviz-GKzage1ZR\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/GKzage1ZR\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2>Sales retreat across most provinces<\/h2>\n<p>Sales declines were widespread last month with few markets reporting advances. Even Calgary\u2014currently Canada\u2019s housing hotspot\u2014recorded its first dip (-1.8% m\/m) in six months in September.<\/p>\n<p>Among Canada\u2019s larger markets, the pullback was sharpest in Vancouver (-5.6% m\/m). Though the latest backstep in Toronto looked comparatively modest at -1.8%, the fall since this spring\u2019s peak is substantially more pronounced (-22.4%) than in Vancouver (-13.7%). Sharp declines in markets surrounding the GTA\u2014including the Niagara region (-14.5% m\/m) and Hamilton-Burlington area (-7.1% m\/m)\u2014further weighed on provincial activity in Ontario. Winnipeg (-1.0% m\/m) and Saskatoon (-3.9%) were also among the markets experiencing slower activity last month in Western Canada.<\/p>\n<p>The few markets where resales picked up in September included Edmonton (+7.2% m\/m), Halifax (+5.9%), Montreal (+1.5%) and Quebec City (+1.1%). <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-xviEK1VnM\" class=\"everviz-xviEK1VnM\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/xviEK1VnM\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2>New listings tip Ontario into buyers\u2019 market<\/h2>\n<p>September marked another month of easing supply-demand conditions. Muted sales activity alongside an uptick in new listings brought the sales-to-new listings ratio down to a 14-month low at the national level (51%)\u2014a level that is considered balanced.<br \/>\nThe ratio, however, points to conditions now favouring buyers in Ontario, and more clearly so in the Greater Toronto Area, the Niagara region, and Barrie. But many other markets (including Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton-Burlington, and London) teeter on the brink of falling into this category as well.<\/p>\n<p>Though less stark than Ontario, stalling sales amid an influx of new listings has worked to rebalance markets in B.C. and most of the Maritime region. Supply-demand conditions in New Brunswick and Canada\u2019s prairies, on the other hand, remain tight. Still, we expect souring market sentiment will soon impact these markets too to some degree.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-WaFoklUy-\" class=\"everviz-WaFoklUy-\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/WaFoklUy-\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h2>Prices softening<\/h2>\n<p>The sharp swing in market conditions in recent months has significantly dampened upward price pressures across the country. The slight fall in the aggregate MLS HPI for Canada in September may be a sign of things to come. Look no further than Ontario for evidence of renewed price weakness. Ontario markets in and around the GTA posted the largest month-to-month declines in September, while price growth in other areas of the province remained relatively flat.<\/p>\n<p>Though still better supported than in Ontario, prices in B.C. and Quebec further moderated their rate of appreciation last month. Between August and September, price gains were less than half as large as the ones recorded in August in Vancouver (+0.3% m\/m) and Victoria (+0.6%). A similar moderation took place in Montreal (0.5%) and Quebec City (-0.8%).<\/p>\n<p>With the exception of Regina (-0.6% m\/m), home prices in the Prairies continued to climb at a solid pace\u2014reaching record-highs in Edmonton, Calgary and Saskatoon. Likewise, prices out east stayed on an upward trajectory, entering all-time high territory in Newfoundland &#038; Labrador, Moncton and Saint John.<\/p>\n<h2>Market cooling expected to further restrain price growth <\/h2>\n<p>Higher interest rates, affordability challenges and economic uncertainty are likely to keep homebuyer demand muted in the near term. At the same time, higher interest costs may also exert increasing pressure on existing homeowners to sell, keeping the flow of new listings going. Together these trends would hand buyers more pricing power in the months ahead, driving prices further down in Ontario while restraining gains elsewhere in the country.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/September-snapshot.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1067\" height=\"392\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52686\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div class=\"img w-mob-100\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-30186\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See PDF with complete charts<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" style=\"text-decoration: none;\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/MHU-October-2023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">h2{font-size:23px;font-weight: 500;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The fall season is shaping up to be a relatively quiet period for Canada\u2019s housing market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":2258,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,50],"tags":[],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-monthly-housing-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Home prices edge lower in Canada - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Housing<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Housing Market Update<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Housing<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Housing Market Update<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 3 years ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on October 13, 2023","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on October 13, 2023 8:43 pm","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025 4:54 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/189"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2260"},{"taxonomy":"rbc_econ_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbc_econ_content_type?post=2260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}