{"id":2120,"date":"2023-05-17T14:04:37","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T14:04:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/05\/17\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/"},"modified":"2023-05-17T14:04:37","modified_gmt":"2023-05-17T14:04:37","slug":"five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/","title":{"rendered":"Five signs North America\u2019s labour markets are starting to crack"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Labour markets have been far more resilient than expected in early 2023. Employment has surged higher in both the U.S. and Canada and the unemployment rate is at or around multi-decade lows. Still, while traditional \u2018headline\u2019 measures of labour markets are firm, signs of vulnerability are emerging under the surface. These, combined with the impact of aggressive interest rate hikes over the past year, suggest labour demand is softening.<\/p>\n<p>Here are five signals that labour markets aren\u2019t as solid as they seem:<\/p>\n<h4>1.\tThe scramble to hire staff is losing momentum<\/h4>\n<p>The U.S. private sector job opening rate has been declining since March 2022. That hasn\u2019t yet generated a lot of net job losses, because demand was so far above available supply in the early days of the pandemic recovery. Regardless, there were 1.6 job openings per unemployed worker as of March, down from more than two per employed worker a year earlier. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-eq-O8V5rJ\" class=\"everviz-eq-O8V5rJ\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/eq-O8V5rJ\/?v=5\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>2.\tLayoffs are edging higher<\/h4>\n<p>Though still low, weekly claims for state jobless benefits are also on the upswing. U.S. jobless claims\u2014which have historically increased ~30% from their lowest point ahead of recessions\u2014 are already up more than 25% from late last year. And this happened in less than seven months (\u2018normal\u2019 would be closer to a year). The share of eligible workers receiving unemployment insurance is also still very low but is up about half a percentage point from summer 2022.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-JXRA1wuxs\" class=\"everviz-JXRA1wuxs\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/JXRA1wuxs\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>3.\tFewer workers are testing their luck in the job market<\/h4>\n<p>The share of workers quitting their jobs has been declining. Workers quit less often when job markets are softening and finding new work becomes less certain. And over the last two and a half decades, the economy-wide quit rate has only substantially declined during recessions. Wage increases from job switches are typically larger than within-job pay increases, so wage growth has also slowed. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-6BZl7A_a_\" class=\"everviz-6BZl7A_a_\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/6BZl7A_a_\/?v=8\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>4.\t\u201cTemporary help services\u201d employment has rolled over in the U.S.<\/h4>\n<p>Employment at temporary help agencies typically leads the labour market cycle. These are among the first jobs to be added during an upswing (it\u2019s cheaper and less risky for businesses to hire more from temp agencies when demand is first rising) and they\u2019re also the easiest jobs to cut when demand starts to slow. Temporary help services jobs have already declined in five of the last six months and are down over 5% from peak levels last year.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-OJnlgp_nW\" class=\"everviz-OJnlgp_nW\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/OJnlgp_nW\/?v=6\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>5.\tJob openings are also slumping in Canada<\/h4>\n<p>The number of job openings in Canada has also been slipping\u2014both in Statistics Canada data and on the job search site Indeed.com. The unemployment rate is still exceptionally low at 5.0% as of April (just off the record 4.9% lows from summer 2022.)  But businesses reported a sharp easing in the intensity of labour shortages in Q1. And wage growth expectations have been edging lower. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-_DSSbgktSi\" class=\"everviz-_DSSbgktSi\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/_DSSbgktSi\/?v=1\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em><strong><em>Nathan Janzen<\/em><\/strong> is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><b>Carrie Freestone<\/b> is an Economist with RBC and a member of the macroeconomic analysis group. She is responsible for examining key economic indicators including consumer spending, labour markets, GDP, and inflation.<\/em><\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span>caption{background: #002750;color: #fff; text-align:left; padding: 0 10px;}table {margin-bottom: 10px;}.thead-light{border: red;}td, th {text-align: left;}.tx-sm{font-size:14px;}.mar40bot{margin-bottom:40px;}.mar20bot{margin-bottom:20px;}.tableizer-table td {padding: 6px 18px;margin: 1px;border-bottom: 1px solid #eee; font-size:15px;}.tableizer-table th {font-weight: bold;}.ft-bold {font-weight: 700;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Labour markets have been far more resilient than expected in early 2023. Employment has surged higher in both the U.S. and Canada and the unemployment rate is at or around multi-decade lows. Still, while traditional \u2018headline\u2019 measures of labour markets are firm, signs of vulnerability are emerging under the surface. These, combined with the impact [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":2118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,82,84],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-featured-analysis","category-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Five signs North America\u2019s labour markets are starting to crack - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Five signs North America\u2019s labour markets are starting to crack\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Labour markets have been far more resilient than expected in early 2023. Employment has surged higher in both the U.S. and Canada and the unemployment rate is at or around multi-decade lows. Still, while traditional \u2018headline\u2019 measures of labour markets are firm, signs of vulnerability are emerging under the surface. These, combined with the impact [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-17T14:04:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-531-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1236\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"aidansmithedgell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"aidansmithedgell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"aidansmithedgell\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/466b148147b6e1461c12a15420fc76fd\"},\"headline\":\"Five signs North America\u2019s labour markets are starting to crack\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-17T14:04:37+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/\"},\"wordCount\":536,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-531-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"articleSection\":[\"Canadian Analysis\",\"Featured Analysis\",\"Insights\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/five-signs-north-americas-labour-markets-are-starting-to-crack\/\",\"name\":\"Five signs North America\u2019s labour markets are starting to crack - 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