{"id":2107,"date":"2023-05-05T14:02:49","date_gmt":"2023-05-05T14:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/05\/05\/canadas-housing-markets-heat-up-this-spring\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","slug":"canadas-housing-markets-heat-up-this-spring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/local-real-estate-markets\/canadas-housing-markets-heat-up-this-spring\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s housing markets heat up this spring"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There were hints for some time the cyclical bottom would be reached this spring but April pretty much sealed the deal. Early results from real estate boards gave strong indications local markets turned a corner last month. In most cases, activity ramped up significantly (from depressed levels in March) and prices ticked higher. Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary led the way though Montreal wasn\u2019t far behind.  While still beset by a sharp loss of affordability in the last couple of years, buyers appear more confident to house hunt now that the Bank of Canada has paused its aggressive rate hike campaign (for good we believe). There were also more properties put up for sale last month. Not a whole lot but probably enough to whet buyers\u2019 appetite.<\/p>\n<p>The coming months should be quite interesting. The other side of the valley promises a better environment for sellers who might have previously been reluctant to sell in a down market. This will hopefully bring in more supply and prop up historically low inventories. The end of price corrections is also poised to spur some market-timing buyers into action. Both factors would sustain or even extend April\u2019s gains. That said, the lack of affordability will remain a huge issue, especially for first-time buyers. Our view is this will significantly limit any recovery at first. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-pjF3UYHAk\" class=\"everviz-pjF3UYHAk\"><script src=https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/pjF3UYHAk\/?v=3 defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Toronto area\u2014Buyers (and a few sellers) back in the game<\/h4>\n<p>The market got notably busier in April with resales jumping 27% from March (seasonally adjusted). A 6.5% rise in new listings gave buyers more options to bid on. Still, new sellers only met rebounding demand partway. Demand-supply conditions tightened for a fifth-straight month and now look as firm as they were before the market\u2019s downturn. This helped push the burgeoning price recovery forward. The GTA\u2019s MLS HPI rose for the second consecutive month by 2.4% m\/m in April. Further increases are likely to follow if conditions stay this tight. Sellers hold the key to the market\u2019s trajectory to a large extent. Much will  depend on the degree to which they make their way back in the game and reshape (currently low) inventories. Our view is that a growing number of them will indeed list their home for sale now that property values have turned a corner. And this should keep any price appreciation relatively contained. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-xJQBbLYq2p\" class=\"everviz-xJQBbLYq2p\"><script src=https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/xJQBbLYq2p\/?v=3 defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Montreal area\u2014Spring is in the air<\/h4>\n<p>Warmer seasonal temperatures\u2014and the Bank of Canada\u2019s hitting the pause button\u2014pulled the market out of its deep slumber in April. Resale transactions shot up an estimated 12% m\/m, reversing part of the sharp 34% decline since early 2022. Spring\u2014but more so the growing perception the market is bottoming\u2014also reinvigorated sellers but the energy was more subdued on that side of the equation. Resulting fiercer competition for each property available contributed to end the year-long price slide. Median prices for both single-family homes and condominiums rose modestly between March and April. We think tighter demand-supply conditions will support further slight increases in the period ahead.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-tH6ceiarn\" class=\"everviz-tH6ceiarn\"><script src=https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/tH6ceiarn\/?v=3 defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Vancouver area\u2014Correction officially over?<\/h4>\n<p>Activity picked up solidly last month as more buyers stepped back into the market\u2014likely sensing the correction has run its course. An influx of properties up for sale possibly added some excitement though the increase in new listings (which we estimate at 9% m\/m on a seasonally adjusted basis) didn\u2019t come close to the estimated 30+% jump in resales. Faster-rising demand than supply put heat on prices. After falling nearly 10% since its March 2022 peak, the area\u2019s MLS HPI went up in the past two months, including a firm 2.3% m\/m increase in April. Tighter demand-supply conditions will likely keep prices on an upward trajectory in the period ahead. But we continue to believe that extremely poor affordability will significantly limit the speed at which they will rise.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-h5r6C3BoTn\" class=\"everviz-h5r6C3BoTn\"><script src=https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/h5r6C3BoTn\/?v=3 defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Calgary\u2014Kicking it up a notch<\/h4>\n<p>The downturn\u2014if there ever really was one\u2014appears to be done. Home resales rebounded a strong 28% m\/m in April (based on our calculation of seasonally-adjusted values). And prices ticked slightly higher. The thing is that the market remained impressively robust over the past year despite the sharp drop in activity. Resales never fell below pre-pandemic levels and the MLS HPI kept a holding pattern, bucking the declining trend seen in virtually every other market in Canada. Calgary\u2019s price index in April still stood 1.2% above where it was a year ago. With market conditions tightening in the past three months\u2014and now favouring sellers\u2014odds are prices will appreciate some more in the period ahead.  <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-F07aSMNsW\" class=\"everviz-F07aSMNsW\"><script src=https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/F07aSMNsW\/?v=3 defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"mar-t-b rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div class=\"img w-mob-100\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-30186\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See PDF with complete charts<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" style=\"text-decoration: none;\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/Real-Estate-Board-Results-for-Apr-2023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">.mar-t-b{margin: 40px 0;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There were hints for some time the cyclical bottom would be reached this spring but April pretty much sealed the deal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":1996,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,88],"tags":[11,17],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-local-real-estate-markets","tag-economy","tag-housing"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canada\u2019s housing markets heat up this spring - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There were hints for some time the cyclical bottom would be reached this spring but April pretty much sealed the deal.\" 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