{"id":2098,"date":"2023-04-14T18:58:53","date_gmt":"2023-04-14T18:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/04\/14\/green-shoots-in-canadas-housing-market\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","slug":"green-shoots-in-canadas-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/green-shoots-in-canadas-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Green shoots in Canada\u2019s housing market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The year-long winter in Canada\u2019s housing market appears to be ending. There were clear\u2014albeit still tentative\u2014signs of spring in March as more buyers stepped back into the fray. Home resales rose 1.4% from February and perhaps more importantly (benchmark) prices went up m\/m for the first time in over a year across Canada. Sellers, on the other hand, have yet to come out of hibernation: new listings are still trending lower, falling in four of the past five months.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, Canada\u2019s housing market could be potentially busier at this stage were there more homes for sale. Back-to-back drops in inventories have tightened demand-supply conditions, pitting more buyers against each other in bidding contests in parts of the country (e.g. Toronto, Vancouver). <\/p>\n<p>We think developments in March are evidence that a cyclical bottom is now forming nationally and in many local markets (including in Ontario and British Columbia). The trough won\u2019t be far behind in other areas. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-YsxVq1MQw\" class=\"everviz-YsxVq1MQw\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/YsxVq1MQw\/?v=4\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Activity stabilizing but still exceptionally quiet<\/h4>\n<p>No doubt the Bank of Canada pausing its aggressive rate hike campaign earlier this year is inspiring some buyers to return to the market. We suspect many had been waiting on the sidelines for such a signal. But continued affordability issues is significantly limiting the influx. At 406,000 units (annualized) in March, home resales are still near their lowest level in more than 13 years in Canada (excluding the lockdown period).<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-l0-1Xx_WA\" class=\"everviz-l0-1Xx_WA\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/l0-1Xx_WA\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Sellers wanted<\/h4>\n<p>More supply could certainly get things rolling a little faster though it\u2019s hard to know when would-be sellers will be ready to take the plunge. Growing evidence of a market inflection point this spring and stabilizing prices might do the trick in the coming months. Of course, the longer sellers hold back (or the more they retrench), the tighter demand-supply conditions are likely to get\u2014and quicker upward price pressure are likely to build. <\/p>\n<h4>Narrowly-based price gain in March <\/h4>\n<p>Tighter conditions over the past two months are already having an impact on property values. The national composite MLS Home Price Index rose 0.2% m\/m in March for the first time in 13 months. Toronto (up 1.6% m\/m) and a few other Ontario markets including Sudbury (up 3.1%), North Bay up 1.5%), Kitchener-Waterloo (up 1.0%) and the Niagara region (up 0.5%) led the increase. Yet year-long declines continued in the majority of other markets across Canada, including Calgary (-0.2%), Edmonton (-0.2%), Regina (-2.1%), Ottawa (-0.7%), Montreal (-0.3%) and St. John\u2019s (-1.4%). Vancouver\u2019s MLS HPI was unchanged from February. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-ZDKPK9vcx\" class=\"everviz-ZDKPK9vcx\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/ZDKPK9vcx\/?v=6\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Local trends to diverge<\/h4>\n<p>We expect diverging trends to persist in the near term. It\u2019s likely to take a little longer in many markets\u2014especially those that overheated the most earlier in the pandemic\u2014for demand-supply conditions to firm up sufficiently to stabilize prices. Still, we think it will be just a matter of few more months in most cases. Turning points are generally in sight.<\/p>\n<h4>Sharp rebound unlikely<\/h4>\n<p>Reaching the cyclical bottom doesn\u2019t mean activity and prices are about to rebound sharply immediately thereafter. In fact, we see the recovery phase starting slowly later this year as affordability issues and a weaker economy continue to hold back buyers. The pace should progressively pick up in 2024 once the economy clears its soft patch, inflation returns to target and the Bank of Canada reverses part of the massive rate increases it\u2019s imposed since March 2020. <\/p>\n<p>Booming immigration will fuel demand through the medium term (and possibly beyond), raising the odds of deep supply shortages in the future if homebuilding fails to pick up materially. See <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/canadian-housing-market-outlook-the-bottom-of-the-downturn-is-in-sight\/\">Canada&#8217;s housing market outlook: The bottom of the downturn is in sight<\/a> for our latest housing market forecast. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/March-Market-Snapshot.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"633\" height=\"230\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-47243\" \/><\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div class=\"img w-mob-100\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-30186\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See PDF with complete charts<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" style=\"text-decoration: none;\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/MHU-March-2023.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The year-long winter in Canada\u2019s housing market appears to be ending. There were clear\u2014albeit still tentative\u2014signs of spring in March as more buyers stepped back into the fray. Home resales rose 1.4% from February and perhaps more importantly (benchmark) prices went up m\/m for the first time in over a year across Canada. Sellers, on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":2096,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,50],"tags":[],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-monthly-housing-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Green shoots in Canada\u2019s housing market - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/green-shoots-in-canadas-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Green shoots in Canada\u2019s housing market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The year-long winter in Canada\u2019s housing market appears to be ending. There were clear\u2014albeit still tentative\u2014signs of spring in March as more buyers stepped back into the fray. Home resales rose 1.4% from February and perhaps more importantly (benchmark) prices went up m\/m for the first time in over a year across Canada. 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href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Housing<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Housing Market Update<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Housing<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Housing Market Update<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 3 years ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on April 14, 2023","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on April 14, 2023 6:58 pm","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025 4:54 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