{"id":2053,"date":"2023-03-22T20:11:18","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T20:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/03\/22\/quebec-budget-2023-going-big-again\/"},"modified":"2023-03-22T20:11:18","modified_gmt":"2023-03-22T20:11:18","slug":"quebec-budget-2023-going-big-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/quebec-budget-2023-going-big-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Quebec budget 2023: Going big again"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Fiscal plan contains $24-billion worth of new measures over six years.<\/li>\n<li>Government cuts personal income taxes, effective immediately.<\/li>\n<li>Budget deficit of $4.0 billion in 2023-24 to be eliminated by 2027-28.<\/li>\n<li>Province\u2019s debt load projected to gradually decline.<\/li>\n<li>New debt reduction target announced.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The pandemic crisis may be in the rear-view mirror but Quebec still has a penchant for big budgets. Quebec finance minister \u00c9ric Girard yesterday presented a six-year fiscal plan that included more than $24 billion in new measures\u2014coming on top of the $22 billion that were added in Budget 2022 and $14 billion in the fall fiscal update. Personal income tax cuts took centre stage as the recently reelected CAQ government moves forward with its ambitious agenda to reduce Quebec\u2019s wealth gap with Ontario.<\/p>\n<h4>Gradual decline in the deficit<\/h4>\n<p>Despite the additional measures, the budget deficit is projected to stay on a declining path. From a downwardly revised $5.0 billion in 2022-23 (after deposits to the Generations Fund), it will shrink by $1.0 billion per year until balance is achieved in 2027-28. To get there, the government will reduce its deposits into the Generations Fund from $3.4 billion in 2022-23 to $2.8 billion in 2027-28 (dipping to a low of $2.4 billion in each of the next two years).<\/p>\n<h4>Quebec\u2019s debt trending lower as a share of the economy<\/h4>\n<p>The province\u2019s indebtedness looks slightly heavier than it did in the fall fiscal update though it\u2019s still heading in the right direction (down). Budget 2023 introduces a new debt reduction target (net debt-to-GDP ratio of 30% by 2037-38) to keep the focus on making further progress over the longer term. At 38.1% of GDP (in March 2022), Quebec carries the third heaviest (net) debt load among the provinces.<\/p>\n<h4>Investing on key priorities<\/h4>\n<p>After three years of focusing on the pandemic (and inflation) emergency, the CAQ government is now shifting to implementing its plan for shaping Quebec\u2019s future. New measures in Budget 2023 target five key priorities: growing Quebec\u2019s wealth, improving the healthcare system, supporting Quebecers, developing youth and the environment.<\/p>\n<h4>Reducing Quebecers\u2019 tax burden<\/h4>\n<p>Growing Quebec\u2019s wealth by far has the biggest price tag: $12.1 billion over six years, including $2.1 billion in 2023-24. The government is moving ahead with its election promise to immediately lower the first two personal income tax bracket thresholds by 1 percentage point each, leaving more money into the pockets of all 4.6 million taxpayers in the province. This alone will cost $9.2 billion in lost revenues over six years ($1.7 billion in 2023-24). Other initiatives focus on fostering the prosperity of regions (costing $1.4 million over six years), boosting productivity ($888 million) and addressing the labour shortage ($615 million).<\/p>\n<h4>Healthcare remains a top priority<\/h4>\n<p>Budget 2023 allocates $5.6 billion more in healthcare investment over six years ($1.0 billion more in 2023-24) mainly to improve the system\u2019s efficiency and enhance support for seniors. Various initiatives to improve housing affordability, strengthen transportation networks, promote Quebec\u2019s culture and the French language, and otherwise support families and Quebecers at large amount to $3.6 billion ($740 million in 2023-24). Education and vocational training get an added $2.3 billion ($345 million in 2023-24) to further \u201cdevelop the potential of youth\u201d. And new environmental measures (including to protect water resources and biodiversity) total $953 million ($122 million in 2023-24).<\/p>\n<h4>Spending more, taxing less in the coming year<\/h4>\n<p>Overall, Budget 2023 contains a mix of higher expenditures and lower own-source revenues that result in a higher deficit ($4.0 billion) in 2023-24 than projected in the fall fiscal update ($2.3 billion). The difference would be even wider (by $2.1 billion) were it not for the government slashing its deposits to the Generations Fund by 40% (relative to previous baseline) and slimming down the contingency reserve by $0.5 billion. These two factors in fact represent a course change for the government that will positively impact its bottom line over the medium term\u2014keeping Quebec\u2019s deficit on a downward track until balance is achieved in 2027-28.<\/p>\n<h4>Timing of tax cuts questionable<\/h4>\n<p>The fiscal flexibility gained in the past decade at great sacrifice has placed the CAQ government in a position to step up its efforts to grow Quebecers\u2019 wealth without jeopardizing the longer-term financial position of the province. Quebec being a high-tax jurisdiction, there\u2019s no doubt any tax relief will be welcome\u2014especially at a time when high inflation took purchasing power away from many people. The risk is that the boost in take-home income could further stimulate demand for goods and services, and complicate the Bank of Canada\u2019s job of taming inflation (potentially forced to raise interest rates more aggressively). Perhaps it would have been preferable to time any tax cuts after inflation has returned to the desired level.<\/p>\n<table class=\"tableizer-table\">\n<caption>\n  Quebec&#8217;s consolidated fiscal plan<br \/>\n  <\/caption>\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"tableizer-firstrow\">\n<th>($ billions)<\/th>\n<th>Actual<\/th>\n<th>Forecast<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<th>\u00a0<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td> 2021-22 <\/td>\n<td> 2022-23 <\/td>\n<td> 2023-24 <\/td>\n<td> 2024-25 <\/td>\n<td> 2025-26 <\/td>\n<td> 2026-27 <\/td>\n<td> 2027-28 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>Consolidated Revenue<\/td>\n<td> 138.8 <\/td>\n<td> 145.1 <\/td>\n<td> 147.7 <\/td>\n<td> 151.8 <\/td>\n<td> 157.0 <\/td>\n<td> 162.9 <\/td>\n<td> 167.6 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Own-source revenue<\/td>\n<td> 109.6 <\/td>\n<td> 115.9 <\/td>\n<td> 118.0 <\/td>\n<td> 122.1 <\/td>\n<td> 126.0 <\/td>\n<td> 130.9 <\/td>\n<td> 134.4 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Federal transfers<\/td>\n<td> 29.2 <\/td>\n<td> 29.2 <\/td>\n<td> 29.7 <\/td>\n<td> 29.7 <\/td>\n<td> 30.9 <\/td>\n<td> 32.0 <\/td>\n<td> 33.2 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>Consolidated expenditure<\/td>\n<td> 136.0 <\/td>\n<td> 146.8 <\/td>\n<td> 147.9 <\/td>\n<td> 151.4 <\/td>\n<td> 155.4 <\/td>\n<td> 159.7 <\/td>\n<td> 163.2 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Program expenditure<\/td>\n<td> 127.3 <\/td>\n<td> 136.7 <\/td>\n<td> 138.4 <\/td>\n<td> 141.5 <\/td>\n<td> 145.4 <\/td>\n<td> 149.1 <\/td>\n<td> 152.1 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Debt service<\/td>\n<td> 8.6 <\/td>\n<td> 10.1 <\/td>\n<td> 9.5 <\/td>\n<td> 9.9 <\/td>\n<td> 10.0 <\/td>\n<td> 10.5 <\/td>\n<td> 11.1 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>Contingency reserve<\/td>\n<td> &#8211; <\/td>\n<td> &#8211; <\/td>\n<td> (1.5)<\/td>\n<td> (1.0)<\/td>\n<td> (1.0)<\/td>\n<td> (1.5)<\/td>\n<td> (1.5)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>Surplus\/(Deficit)<\/td>\n<td> 2.8 <\/td>\n<td> (1.7)<\/td>\n<td> (1.6)<\/td>\n<td> (0.6)<\/td>\n<td> 0.5 <\/td>\n<td> 1.7 <\/td>\n<td> 2.8 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Deposits into the Generations Fund<\/td>\n<td> (3.6)<\/td>\n<td> (3.4)<\/td>\n<td> (2.4)<\/td>\n<td> (2.4)<\/td>\n<td> (2.5)<\/td>\n<td> (2.7)<\/td>\n<td> (2.8)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ft-bold\" style=\"background:#eee;\">Budgetary balance for the purposes<br \/>\nof the Balanced Budget Act<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> (0.8)<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> (5.0)<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> (4.0)<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> (3.0)<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> (2.0)<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> (1.0)<\/td>\n<td style=\"background:#eee;\"> 0.0 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>Budgetary balance as % of GDP<\/td>\n<td>(0.2)<\/td>\n<td>(0.9)<\/td>\n<td>(0.7)<\/td>\n<td>(0.5)<\/td>\n<td>(0.3)<\/td>\n<td>(0.2)<\/td>\n<td>0.0 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"ft-bold\">\n<td>Net debt as % of GDP<\/td>\n<td>38.1 <\/td>\n<td>37.4 <\/td>\n<td>37.7 <\/td>\n<td>37.5 <\/td>\n<td>37.0 <\/td>\n<td>36.5 <\/td>\n<td>35.8 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p class=\"tx-sm\">Source: Minist\u00e8re des Finances du Qu\u00e9bec, RBC Economics<\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">caption{background: #002750;color: #fff; text-align:left; padding: 0 10px;}table {margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 14px}.thead-light{border: red;}td, th {text-align: left;}.tx-sm{font-size:14px;}.mar40bot{margin-bottom:40px;}.tableizer-table td {padding: 1px;margin: 1px;border-bottom: 1px solid #eee;}.tableizer-table th {font-weight: bold;}.ft-bold {font-weight: 700;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The pandemic crisis may be in the rear-view mirror but Quebec still has a penchant for big budgets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":2051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[11,27],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-2053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-economy","tag-quebec"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quebec budget 2023: Going big again - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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