{"id":2006,"date":"2023-03-01T15:10:17","date_gmt":"2023-03-01T15:10:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/03\/01\/alberta-budget-2023-fiscal-surplus-maintained-thanks-to-resource-royalties\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","slug":"alberta-budget-2023-fiscal-surplus-maintained-thanks-to-resource-royalties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/alberta-budget-2023-fiscal-surplus-maintained-thanks-to-resource-royalties\/","title":{"rendered":"Alberta Budget 2023: Fiscal surplus maintained thanks to resource royalties"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Highlights<\/h4>\n<li>Alberta government presents  another balanced budget with surplus of $2.4B.<\/li>\n<li>New fiscal prudence measures promise balanced budgets every year to combat revenue volatility.<\/li>\n<li>Revenues expected to shrink $5.4 B (-7.1%) from FY 2022 \u2013 23.<\/li>\n<li>Expenses set to grow $2.6B (+4.0%) from FY 2022 \u2013 23 forecast.<\/li>\n<li>Net debt-to-GDP ratio on downward trajectory, anticipated to reach 9.1% by FY 2025 \u2013 26.<\/li>\n<hr>\n<p>After an impressive turnaround, Alberta\u2019s 2023 budget included more optimism for the province. Accompanied by another balanced budget, the government delivered a new fiscal framework to ensure its positive fiscal situation will last. With promises to balance budgets every year moving forward (subject to certain exemptions), the government has taken new measures to offset risks associated with volatile revenues \u2013 something the province has long struggled with. As part of its new framework, expenditures will now be set to grow in line with population and inflation \u2013 roughly 2% per year. But this rule will not come into effect until next year. With an election coming up, expenditure growth is forecast to push up to 4% this fiscal year, with the majority of funding increases allocated to healthcare and education.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-my4lbhaXz\" class=\"everviz-my4lbhaXz\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/my4lbhaXz\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>Despite contracting slightly from the FY 2022 \u2013 23 forecast, the Alberta government is still expected to rake in royalties from resources. At the same time, a comeback in employment is projected to top up revenues from personal income and corporate taxation. The increase in expenditures and shrinking of revenue growth have kept the province from reporting the same astounding surplus as those projected in FY 2022 \u2013 23. <\/p>\n<h4>Expenses: Petrodollars fund pre-election spending plan<\/h4>\n<p>Following last year\u2019s revenue windfall, the Alberta government has more funding than ever to appropriate. And with an upcoming election, it\u2019s no surprise Budget 2023 had a few goodies baked into it. Planned expenditures for FY 2023 \u2013 24 (including contingencies) totalled $68.3B \u2013 a $2.6B increase (+4.0%) from the FY 222 \u2013 23 forecast. The increase kept Alberta\u2019s per capita program expenses among the highest in Canada at just over $14,000 per person in FY 2023 \u2013 24.   <\/p>\n<p>Growth in expenditures came largely from healthcare and education spending, accounting for $24.5B (36%) and $14.4B (21%) of total expenses respectively. After boasting the largest number of in-migrants of all provinces last year (85,625), the investment in vital services such as health and education are certainly noted as welcome improvements. Despite its low debt load and high revenues, Alberta\u2019s 2023 budget doesn\u2019t include plans to spend every penny of its projected revenues. In keeping with the province\u2019s new fiscal framework, the outlook has limited expenditure growth to maintain its fiscal surplus through the end of the budget outlook. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/3d012a20-3763-4f7f-92da-ff22bbf8410a.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/3d012a20-3763-4f7f-92da-ff22bbf8410a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"584\" height=\"291\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-45259\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4>Revenues: Raking in the royalties<\/h4>\n<p>Although moderating from last year\u2019s high, the government is anticipating revenues that far exceed pre-pandemic levels. Supported by high levels of in-migration and a real GDP that will top the charts for Canada this year, the budget has planned for an uptick in revenues from taxation on personal and business income compared to longer-term averages. But stronger jobs growth isn\u2019t where the real goldmine sits. Revenues from the province\u2019s natural resource sector continue to make all the difference for Alberta.<\/p>\n<p>Accounting for more than a quarter ($18.4B) of revenues from oil and gas royalties, funding for provincial operations and capital plans are still largely dependent on the energy sector. As such, plans included in the 2023 budget continue to be subject to the same degree of volatility as the price of West Texas Intermediate oil. Nevertheless, Alberta\u2019s conservative oil price assumption (at US$79 per barrel for WTI) leaves plenty of room for an upside to revenues. If our own RBC Economics assumption (of US$82.90 per barrel) in FY 2023 \u2013 24 is correct, the province\u2019s surplus could more than double. <\/p>\n<p>And a massive revenue windfall (thanks to higher commodities) puts Alberta in a position to deliver on its Affordability Action Plan just in time for the 2023 election. The plan includes indexing personal income taxes to inflation and a promise to pause the 13% fuel tax until June of this year, amounting to $1.7 billion in foregone revenues. But as the province with the highest surplus as a share of GDP, Alberta can support these measures\u2026at least, for now. <\/p>\n<h4>Capital Plan: Investing in infrastructure healthcare services  <\/h4>\n<p>Alberta\u2019s capital plan includes an investment of nearly $23B over three years. Notable investments include those allocated to municipal infrastructure ($6.5B) including grants and funding for Light Rail Transit systems. Together with capital maintenance costs of $3.5B to preserve existing facilities, and $3.1B for the development of new healthcare facilities, these priorities account for the bulk of Alberta\u2019s capital spending. <\/p>\n<h4>Debts: Alberta maintains lowest provincial debt burden <\/h4>\n<div id=\"everviz-CLI20Uv4G\" class=\"everviz-CLI20Uv4G\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/CLI20Uv4G\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>Safeguarding its position, Alberta is on track to maintain the lowest debt-to-GDP in the country at 10.2% in FY 2023 \u2013 24. With a commitment to maintain its surplus position, the province\u2019s debt profile is projected to come down to 9.1% by FY 2025 \u2013 26. Debt servicing costs are forecast to represent 4.2% ($2.8B) of the province\u2019s total expenses next year (excluding contingencies). Although the province has introduced new fiscal prudence measures, without diversification, big spending plans can only move forward so long as the province\u2019s energy sector continues to boom.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-23215\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">Read report PDF<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/AB-Budget-2023-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_077\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"BC Budget 2021\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After an impressive turnaround, Alberta\u2019s 2023 budget included more optimism for the province.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":2004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[19,11],"class_list":["post-2006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-alberta","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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