{"id":1994,"date":"2023-02-09T05:00:40","date_gmt":"2023-02-09T05:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2023\/02\/09\/know-when-to-hold-em\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:42","slug":"know-when-to-hold-em","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/","title":{"rendered":"Know when to hold \u2019em"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Highlights<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The BoC became the first major central bank to \u201cconditionally\u201d pause its tightening cycle in January<\/li>\n<li>With Canada\u2019s economy losing momentum we don\u2019t see it restarting rate hikes<\/li>\n<li>Others aren\u2019t ready to follow the BoC just yet and we\u2019ve marked our ECB, BoE and RBA terminal rate forecasts higher<\/li>\n<li>A strong US payroll report has driven policy rate expectations higher but we continue to think fed funds will peak in March<\/li>\n<li>If labour market strength persists over the medium term (not our base case) terminal rate expectations will have to move higher<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Pinning down terminal policy rates remains a challenge as central banks weigh slowing inflation and lagged effects of past tightening against mixed activity indicators and strong labour markets. The BoC became the first major central bank to hit pause on its tightening cycle after delivering a 25 bp hike in January, but others aren\u2019t ready to move to the sidelines just yet. Equity and bond markets rallied last month as investors grew more confident that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, but a surprisingly strong jobs report cast doubt on that view. Following a round of central bank meetings in early-February we\u2019ve raised our terminal policy rate forecasts for the BoE (+50 bps), ECB (+25 bps) and RBA (+25 bps). We continue to assume the Fed\u2019s next hike will be its last though payroll strength and Fed guidance leave risks skewed to the upside.<\/p>\n<p>With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. After consistently trimming its global growth projections last year, the IMF revised its GDP forecasts higher in January, expecting a 2.9% gain this year that would be close to the global economy\u2019s trend growth rate. Stronger-than-expected economic data and lower energy prices have us expecting a shallower recession in the UK, and a slowdown rather than outright contraction in the euro area. But we still anticipate mild recessions in Canada and the US in 2023 as recent indicators (outside jobs data) show both economies losing momentum late last year. <\/p>\n<p>While labour markets remain too hot for central banks\u2019 comfort, we think they\u2019ll eventually follow the BoC\u2019s lead and move to the sidelines after a year of aggressive tightening, waiting for an \u201caccumulation of evidence\u201d to support or oppose further hikes. Markets are generally priced for cuts later this year and in 2024, so if central banks are ultimately forced to resume tightening due to persistent inflation and excess demand (not our base case) the bond market would be in for a potentially painful adjustment.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"central-bank-bias\" class=\"anchor\"><span style=\"color: #004da4;\"><b>Central bank bias<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p><!-- Insert style at the beginning of code block --><\/p>\n<p><!-- Central Bank table starts here --><\/p>\n<div class=\"central-bank-table\">\n<!-- Headers --><\/p>\n<div class=\"col-wpr bg-lightblue mar-b-0 pad-tb pad-lr text-center eh-wpr\">\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h5 text-white\">Central Bank<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h5 text-white\">Current Policy Rate<br \/>(Latest Move)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h5 text-white\">Next move<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-wpr table-border mar-t-0 pad-tb pad-lr text-center eh-wpr\">\n<!-- Block 1 CANADA --><\/p>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Central-bank-bias_Canada-Flag.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"626\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-42691 w-35 pad-r\" \/>BoC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">4.50%<br \/><span class=\"h5\">+25 bps in Jan-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">On hold<br \/><span class=\"h5\">until Q1-24<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 text-center pad-t\">The BoC announced a conditional pause in January, saying it would take an \u201caccumulation of evidence\u201d to support further hikes. With the economy slowing, we don\u2019t see the BoC resuming its tightening cycle.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- Block 2 USA --><\/p>\n<div class=\"col-wpr table-border pad-tb pad-lr text-center eh-wpr\">\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Central-bank-bias_US-Flag.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"626\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-42709 w-35 pad-r\" \/>Fed<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">4.50-4.75%<br \/><span class=\"h5\">+25 bps in Feb-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">+25 bps<br \/><span class=\"h5\">in Mar-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 text-center pad-t\">The Fed dialed back to a 25 bp increase in February but continued to suggest ongoing rate hikes are needed. As evidence of an economic slowdown continues to emerge we don\u2019t see the Fed hiking past March.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- Block 3 UK--><\/p>\n<div class=\"col-wpr table-border pad-tb pad-lr text-center eh-wpr\">\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Central-bank-bias_British-Flag.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"626\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-42711 w-35 pad-r\" \/>BoE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">4.00% <br \/><span class=\"h5\">+50 bps in Feb-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">+25 bps<br \/><span class=\"h5\">in Mar-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 text-center pad-t\">The BoE delivered a larger rate increase than we expected in February but its next decision should be between a hike and hold. We now see one more 25 bp move before the BoE steps to the sidelines.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- Block 4 EURO --><\/p>\n<div class=\"col-wpr table-border pad-tb pad-lr text-center eh-wpr\">\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Central-bank-bias_EU-flag.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"626\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-42708 w-35 pad-r\" \/>ECB<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">2.50% <br \/><span class=\"h5\">+50 bps in Feb-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">+50 bps<br \/><span class=\"h5\">in Mar-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 text-center pad-t\">The ECB made it clear that another 50 bp hike is coming in March, but it offered limited guidance beyond that. We\u2019ve revised our terminal deposit rate forecast higher to 3.25% which we see being reached in May.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- Block 5 AUSTRALIA --><\/p>\n<div class=\"col-wpr table-border pad-tb pad-lr text-center eh-wpr\">\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/Central-bank-bias_Australia-flag.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"626\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-42710 w-35 pad-r\" \/>RBA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">3.35% <br \/><span class=\"h5\">+25 bps in Feb-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-4 flex\">\n<p class=\"h3 text-bold text-blue\">+25 bps<br \/><span class=\"h5\">in Mar-23<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 text-center pad-t\">The RBA sounded more concerned about high inflation in February and said further rate hikes will be needed in the months ahead. We\u2019ve revised our terminal cash rate forecast higher to 3.85%.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- End of Central Bank table --><\/p>\n<h4 id=\"title1\" class=\"anchor\">BoC moves to the sidelines<\/h4>\n<p>The BoC delivered a widely-expected 25 bp hike in January, and while we assumed it would be the last of the cycle, the bank\u2019s move to the sidelines was more explicit than we anticipated. Governing Council said that if the economic outlook evolves as expected\u2014the BoC continues to see Canada\u2019s economy stalling in the coming quarters\u2014it will hold the overnight rate at its current level. Governor Macklem elaborated that it would take an \u201caccumulation of evidence\u201d in support of further hikes for the BoC to resume tightening. <\/p>\n<p>We think that\u2019s a wise approach given the lags with which monetary policy impacts the economy. The 425 bps of hikes delivered over the past year will be felt more acutely by households in 2023, in our view pushing average debt servicing costs to a record high and taking a bite out of consumer spending. Stepping back from the increased data dependence espoused in December reduces the risk that the BoC will over-tighten monetary policy by following lagging (and volatile) indicators like jobs numbers. <\/p>\n<p>The BoC\u2019s guidance should make March\u2019s meeting a non-event by recent standards. April\u2019s meeting and MPR is likely the earliest point at which the BoC would have enough evidence to resuming tightening, but we don\u2019t see the data moving in that direction. Canada\u2019s economy carried little momentum into 2023. StatCan\u2019s preliminary estimate of Q4\/22 GDP (+1.6% annualized) was below our assessment of the economy\u2019s potential growth rate (slightly above 2%) for the first time in six quarters. StatCan suggested activity was \u201cessentially unchanged\u201d in December after increasing by just 0.1% in November, and our tracking of cardholder spending held steady in the early stages of 2023. While the labour market remained firm in late-2022, the BoC\u2019s latest Business Outlook Survey pointed to slower future sales growth with firms paring back hiring and investment plans. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-jsLU97GSb\" class=\"everviz-jsLU97GSb\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/jsLU97GSb\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>While there\u2019s no clear evidence that a recession is currently underway, Canada\u2019s economy appears to be running close to stall speed and we continue to think modest GDP declines are likely over the first half of 2023. That should keep the BoC on the sidelines, and is likely to increase the focus on potential rate cuts later this year. Macklem said it\u2019s far too early for that discussion, and our forecast continues to assume the BoC will be on hold until early 2024.<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"title2\" class=\"anchor\">Fed dials back but isn\u2019t done yet<\/h4>\n<p>The Fed dialed back its tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike at the beginning of February. The policy statement called for ongoing rate increases, in line with December\u2019s dot plot that pointed to an above-5% terminal rate. But Chair Powell offered less push-back than usual against market pricing for a lower peak rate and cuts later this year, attributing that to investors anticipating a faster improvement in inflation than the Fed projected in December. We continue to think the Fed\u2019s end-of-2023 inflation forecasts (3.1% year-over-year for headline PCE and 3.5% for core) look too strong, particularly given recent trends (three-month annualized rates at 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively, in December). <\/p>\n<p>While Powell didn\u2019t guide policy rate expectations higher, a strong jobs report two days later did just that. The US economy reportedly added 517,000 jobs in January\u2014a pace that stands head and shoulders above gains seen during the post-GFC recovery\u2014and the unemployment rate ticked down to a fresh cycle (and half-century) low of 3.4%. Markets are now pricing in more than 50 bps of further rate hikes by mid-year and fewer rate cuts by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-XfZxH16MR\" class=\"everviz-XfZxH16MR\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/XfZxH16MR\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>We\u2019re inclined to take the jobs report with a grain of salt, particularly as other non-labour market indicators paint a more mixed picture. The US economy expanded at a healthy 2.9% annualized rate in Q4\/22 but private final domestic demand (i.e. consumer spending and private investment) increased at the slowest pace since the pandemic recovery began. Consumer spending declined in the final two months of 2022, led by a pullback in goods purchases, and industrial production also slowed. We continue to expect GDP will be flat in the first quarter of 2023. Clear signs that the economy is losing momentum and inflation is slowing should make the Fed\u2019s March hike its last. That said, there is a risk that persistent labour market strength (even if not as robust as January\u2019s payrolls) keeps the Fed hiking in May, in line with its December dot plot and current market pricing.<\/p>\n<p><!-- Box --><\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: #f4f8f9; padding: 25px\">\n<p>\n<b id=\"title3\" class=\"anchor\">Will resilient labour markets keep central banks on the offensive?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>While we\u2019ve been emphasizing that the labour market is a lagging indicator\u2014it\u2019s not likely to point to a slowdown until we\u2019re in one\u2014the degree of resilience seen across many advanced economies is still surprising. As noted above, the US saw an unexpected (and somewhat puzzling) acceleration on job growth in January despite signs domestic demand is softening. Canada recorded average monthly job gains of 55,000 in Q4\/22 (more than twice the pre-pandemic run rate) in the face of sub-trend GDP growth, and the jobless rate ticked down for second straight month in December. UK payroll employment growth remained robust late last year and the unemployment rate held near cycle lows even as the economy stalled. Both euro area and Australian jobless rates are now well below pre-pandemic levels. <\/p>\n<p>And forward-looking labour market indicators aren\u2019t particularly discouraging. Across most geographies, employment indices are the bright spot in otherwise lackluster PMI surveys, suggesting hiring demand remains solid. Job openings have come down from cycle highs but remain historically elevated. Fears that vacancies couldn\u2019t decline without a significant increase in unemployment have thus far been unfounded. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-kU4FW5JQW\" class=\"everviz-kU4FW5JQW\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/kU4FW5JQW\/?v=8\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>Despite tight labour market conditions, wage growth appears to have peaked in some economies. Average hourly earnings in the US were up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from a nearly 6% pace in early-2022. Two of Canada\u2019s key wage measures are off their cycle highs but still running at 4-5% year-over-year. The key question for central banks is whether pay growth can continue to cool without a meaningful increase in unemployment that rebalances the job market. If current wage and productivity trends hold, it\u2019s hard to see inflation returning sustainably to target.<\/p>\n<p>Again, the labour market is a lagging indicator so we think central banks need to practice some patience in evaluating the pass through of monetary policy into economic activity, the labour market, wages and underlying inflation. We expect other central banks will soon follow the BoC\u2019s lead and step to the sidelines to see how that process plays out. If, as we expect, economic activity and (eventually) job markets begin to soften, policy rates are likely to peak in the first half of this year and discussion will turn to when rate cuts might begin. But if labour market resilience persists well into 2023, central banks will be looking at restarting their tightening cycles rather than easing. We see that as an upside tail risk to the interest rate forecasts presented here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h4 id=\"title4\" class=\"anchor\">Europe may dodge recession, UK to see shallower declines<\/h4>\n<p>The euro area defied expectations for a Q4\/22 pullback, eking out a 0.1% non-annualized GDP gain to close out the year. A sizeable increase in often-volatile Irish GDP flattered the headline reading\u2014growth would otherwise have been flat\u2014and we think domestic demand was soft with country-level releases flagging a decline in consumer spending across the currency bloc\u2019s largest economies. But survey data suggest growth prospects are improving, with the euro area composite PMI returning to expansionary territory in January for the first time in seven months. Our forecast now assumes the currency bloc will avoid an outright recession, though growth over the first half of 2023 is expected to be sluggish. While natural gas prices are at their lowest level since September 2021, they\u2019re still two to three times pre-pandemic levels. Higher energy costs will continue to squeeze consumers and the industrial sector, leaving growth at a sub-trend pace in the near term.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-am0vRv2hs\" class=\"everviz-am0vRv2hs\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/am0vRv2hs\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>It looks like the UK managed to avoid a second straight quarter of contraction with the economy expected to post a modest 0.1% GDP gain in Q4\/22. Unlike the euro area, we don\u2019t think the UK will be able to dodge a recession in 2023\u2014the latest PMI data continue to point to modest declines in activity early this year. But we don\u2019t think the slowdown will be as deep as previously feared, with the economy now expected to contract by 0.4% for the year as a whole rather than our previous -1.0% projection.<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"title5\" class=\"anchor\">Looking for more hikes from the ECB, BoE and RBA<\/h4>\n<p>Following the latest round of central bank meetings, we\u2019ve revised our terminal rate forecasts higher for the ECB, BoE and RBA. Hiking by an as-expected 50 bps in February, the ECB made clear that a similar increase should be expected in March (our previous forecast assumed 25 bps). It offered little explicit guidance beyond that, although President Lagarde said March\u2019s hike was unlikely to be the last. We continue to expect a 25bp increase in May, with a larger move in March leaving the terminal deposit rate at 3.25% rather than our previously assumed 3%.<\/p>\n<p>The BoE delivered a larger-than-expected 50 bp hike in February but hinted that it\u2019s nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Governor Bailey\u2019s comments and the MPC\u2019s updated guidance effectively raised the bar for further rate hikes. We think the BoE\u2019s next decision in March will be between a hold and a 25 bp hike, with our forecast now assuming the latter which would leave terminal Bank Rate at 4.25% (rather than the 3.75% previously assumed). But we think the BoE will move to the sidelines thereafter, like the BoC waiting for evidence to accumulate whether monetary policy needs to tighten further.<\/p>\n<p>The RBA delivered another 25 bp hike, as expected, at its first policy meeting of 2023. But following a worrying set of inflation data\u2014core inflation in particular was stronger than expected and well above the central bank\u2019s forecast\u2014the RBA\u2019s messaging was more hawkish than late last year. Policymakers sounded particularly concerned about the potential consequences of persistently high inflation. With the statement pointing to further rate hikes \u201cover the months ahead\u201d we\u2019ve added another 25 bp move to our forecast, with a terminal cash rate of 3.85% being reached in April.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h5 id=\"title6\" class=\"anchor\">Download full PDF report including forecast tables:<\/h5>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white no-print\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"section-inner\">\n<div class=\"flex align-items-center\">\n    <\/div>\n<div class=\"grid-wpr eh-wpr mar-t-0\">\n<div class=\"grid-half\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/FMM_Feb2023.pdf\" class=\"pdf-link\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"text-decoration: none;\" rel=\"noopener\">Financial Markets Monthly full PDF<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<style class=\"advgb-styles-renderer\">.table-border { border: 1px solid #E0E0E0;} .w-35{width: 35% !important;} .col-4.flex {    justify-content: center;\n    align-content: center;}.bg-lightblue{background-color:#73b0e3;}<\/style>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":268,"featured_media":1992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[11],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-1994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-markets-monthly","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Know when to hold \u2019em - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. - RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Know when to hold \u2019em\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. - RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-09T05:00:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-26T04:54:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1236\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Josh Nye\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Josh Nye\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"12 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Josh Nye\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528\"},\"headline\":\"Know when to hold \u2019em\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-09T05:00:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-26T04:54:42+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\"},\"wordCount\":2392,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Economy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Monthly Forecast Update\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\",\"name\":\"Know when to hold \u2019em - RBC Economics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-02-09T05:00:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-26T04:54:42+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528\"},\"description\":\"With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. - RBC Economics\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1236},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Know when to hold \u2019em\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\",\"name\":\"RBC Economics\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528\",\"name\":\"Josh Nye\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Josh Nye\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/josh-nye\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Know when to hold \u2019em - RBC Economics","description":"With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. - RBC Economics","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Know when to hold \u2019em","og_description":"With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. - RBC Economics","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/","og_site_name":"RBC Economics","article_published_time":"2023-02-09T05:00:40+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-03-26T04:54:42+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1236,"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Josh Nye","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Josh Nye","Est. reading time":"12 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/"},"author":{"name":"Josh Nye","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528"},"headline":"Know when to hold \u2019em","datePublished":"2023-02-09T05:00:40+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-26T04:54:42+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/"},"wordCount":2392,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","keywords":["Economy"],"articleSection":["Monthly Forecast Update"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/","name":"Know when to hold \u2019em - RBC Economics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","datePublished":"2023-02-09T05:00:40+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-26T04:54:42+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528"},"description":"With inflation slowing but labour markets proving resilient, hopes for a soft landing are growing. - RBC Economics","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","width":2560,"height":1236},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/know-when-to-hold-em\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Know when to hold \u2019em"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/","name":"RBC Economics","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528","name":"Josh Nye","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Josh Nye"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/josh-nye\/"}]}},"author_meta":{"display_name":"Josh Nye","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/josh-nye\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80&w=300","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-512-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/financial-markets-monthly\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Forecast Update<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Forecast Update<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/financial-markets-monthly\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 3 years ago","modified":"Updated 1 year ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on February 9, 2023","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on February 9, 2023 5:00 am","modified":"Updated on March 26, 2025 4:54 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/268"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1994"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1994\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1994"},{"taxonomy":"rbc_econ_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbc_econ_content_type?post=1994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}