{"id":1921,"date":"2022-12-05T05:11:23","date_gmt":"2022-12-05T05:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2022\/12\/05\/its-review-time-for-the-mortgage-stress-test\/"},"modified":"2022-12-05T05:11:23","modified_gmt":"2022-12-05T05:11:23","slug":"its-review-time-for-the-mortgage-stress-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/special-housing-reports\/its-review-time-for-the-mortgage-stress-test\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s review time for the mortgage stress test"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Now that interest rates have surged to their highest levels in more than a decade, the odds of a further spike in the period ahead have greatly diminished. This will (or should) be an important consideration when Ottawa decides on potential adjustments to the mortgage stress test\u2019s minimum qualifying rate (MQR) on December 15. Whether there will be any changes made to the size of the MQR\u2019s hefty buffer is another matter. We suspect policymakers will want to maintain a high degree of stringency in order to contain borrower or systemic risks in still highly uncertain times. Getting rid of the stress test altogether wouldn\u2019t be advisable, nor is it even under consideration. The test is an important prudential policy tool that is proving its worth in the face of soaring rates.<\/p>\n<h4>Stress test is a hot-button issue<\/h4>\n<p>The mortgage stress test has been a source of tension from the moment Ottawa rolled it out in its current form in 2018. Federallyregulated lenders must ensure borrowers are able to withstand a sharp increase in interest rates by using a markedly inflated qualifying rate (the highest of 5.25% or the contract rate plus 2 percentage points). This rate has frustrated potential home buyers with less than stellar borrowing credentials\u2014some of whom are no longer able to get a mortgage from federally-regulated lenders (at least temporarily). It\u2019s also impacted stronger borrowers by reducing the maximum size of mortgage they qualify for.<\/p>\n<h4>The test fulfilled its main purpose: protecting against a rate shock<\/h4>\n<p>When interest rates were at historic lows, it made perfect sense to test borrowers against a massive increase. Indeed, the low rates meant there was a high probability of an increase over the term of the mortgage (five years is the most common in Canada). The events of the past year are a case in point. The Bank of Canada\u2019s policy rate increase has been sudden and massive (up 350 basis points in just eight months). The subsequent shock now confronting borrowers is exactly what the test was designed to protect against. It has enhanced both their resilience and that of Canada\u2019s financial system.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-5deli_qPg\" class=\"everviz-5deli_qPg\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/5deli_qPg\/?v=7\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Is what was optimal a year ago still the case now?<\/h4>\n<p>But today\u2019s rates are much higher. The likelihood they will rise by another 200 basis points is slim. Since the Bank of Canada adopted its inflation targeting policy in 1991, the 5-year fixed mortgage rate has been above the current qualifying rate (around 7.7%) only 16% of the time. By comparison, when the stress test was implemented in January 2018, the qualifying rate at the time (around 5.3%) had been exceeded 50% of the time in the prior quarter of a century. Clearly the stringency of the test has significantly increased. Has it become overly stringent in the current (and foreseeable) circumstances?<\/p>\n<p>The stress test isn\u2019t just about interest rates, though. It\u2019s also intended to guard against other potential shocks like a drop in borrower\u2019s income (e.g. due to a job loss) or developments (e.g. soaring cost of living, recession) that could threaten one\u2019s ability to service a mortgage. As we contend with four decade-high inflation and with our economy teetering on the brink of recession, such risks are evidently elevated.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-EEkFV8I25\" class=\"everviz-EEkFV8I25\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/EEkFV8I25\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Policymakers poised to err on the side of caution<\/h4>\n<p>So while there is a valid case to reduce the MQR buffer, we think Ottawa policymakers are more likely to err on the side of caution and leave the large 2 percentage-point buffer in place. We also suspect they would beleery of any moves that might ultimately stimulate housing demand at this stage\u2014or go against the Bank of Canada\u2019s efforts to cool our economy down to tame inflation. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4><b>Read the full report<\/b><\/h4>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30186\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">Read full report<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com\/v\/mortgage-stress-test-dec-5-2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_211007\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Housing Affordability - Dec 2021\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The mortgage stress test has been a source of tension from the moment Ottawa rolled it out in its current form in 2018.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":1919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-special-housing-reports"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO 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