{"id":1872,"date":"2022-11-15T01:19:57","date_gmt":"2022-11-15T01:19:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2022\/11\/15\/ontario-slashes-its-deficit-projection\/"},"modified":"2022-11-15T01:19:57","modified_gmt":"2022-11-15T01:19:57","slug":"ontario-slashes-its-deficit-projection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/ontario-slashes-its-deficit-projection\/","title":{"rendered":"Ontario slashes its deficit projection"},"content":{"rendered":"<li>Budget shortfall cut by more than a third this year and nearly eliminated by 2024-25.<\/li>\n<li>Last year\u2019s revenue spurt continues to set a more positive base.<\/li>\n<li>Provincial government assumes a mild recession in 2023. <\/li>\n<li>The province\u2019s net debt-to-GDP ratio is now tracking below pre-pandemic levels.<\/li>\n<hr>\n<p>As expected, Ontario\u2019s Fall Economic Statement included sizable downward revisions to budget deficit projections. Revenue windfalls in the 2021-22 fiscal year left most provinces with unexpected surpluses\u2014including Ontario. The dramatic uplift to Ontario\u2019s overall balance has rippled through to future years allowing the provincial government to slash its 2022-23 deficit projections by more than one third from $19.9 billion at budget time to $12.9 billion. The improvement stems almost entirely from a $7-billion upward revision to revenues while the government left this year\u2019s projected expenditures largely unchanged. <\/p>\n<p>Despite a mild recession forecasted in 2023, the overall budget balance is expected to improve further over the next two years. Ontario is now projecting deficits of $8.1 billion and $0.7 billion projected in 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"everviz-5xlahciCD\" class=\"everviz-5xlahciCD\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/5xlahciCD\/?v=3\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<h4>Revenue growth moderates from last year\u2019s spurt<\/h4>\n<p>Following a 15-year high (+12.3%) last year, growth in government revenue is now projected to moderate over the next two years\u2014though remain positive. With interest rates still in restrictive territory and an economic contraction projected early next year, the slowing of business activity and employment is poised to temper revenue gains from personal and corporate taxation over the next few quarters. Nonetheless, revenue growth is projected to continue outpacing expenditure growth to support overall improvements to Ontario\u2019s fiscal balance.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/Ontarios-fiscal-plan.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"619\" height=\"274\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-41333\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Expenditure projections largely unchanged from Budget 2022 projections<\/h4>\n<p>Changes from the 2022 Budget projections are marginal on the expenditure side of the ledger. The Ontario government added a mere $8 million (+0.1%) to its expenditure projection over three years and now expects total expenditures to reach $198.8 billion this fiscal year. Revisions come from slightly higher than projected interest on public debt (+$3 million) and program spending (+$4 million).<\/p>\n<h4>A mild recession now baked into Ontario\u2019s economic outlook<\/h4>\n<p>The government now assumes a mild recession in early 2023. Its base-case forecast now calls for real GDP growth to slow significantly to 0.5% in 2023, which represents a material 2.6 percentage-point downgrade from the Budget 2022 forecast. The government also forecasts nominal GDP to slow considerably next year, though remain far more above water at 3.5%. Both economic projections are very close to our September projections (growth of 0.3% and 3.2% for real and nominal GDP, respectively, in 2023). <\/p>\n<p>While a recession poses clear downside risks to Ontario\u2019s fiscal outlook, the budget\u2019s $1 billion contingency reserve (rising to $1.5 billion in the next two years) and other prudence items embedded in the budget should allow the government to manage most unexpected economic developments without jeopardizing the province\u2019s bottom line.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/economic-growth-assumptions.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"563\" height=\"206\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-41334\" \/><\/p>\n<hr>\n<h4>Strong nominal GDP, lower deficits push down net debt-to-GDP ratio<\/h4>\n<p>Lower budget deficits and strong nominal GDP expectations have shifted the net debt-to-GDP trajectory down from Budget 2022 expectations. Today\u2019s Fall Economic Statement projects the province\u2019s indebtedness to fall below its pre-pandemic level of 39.6% to 38.4% this fiscal year, and remain close to that level in the following two years. Debt servicing costs as a share of revenues are also projected to moderate below pre-pandemic levels, dipping to around 7.3% over the medium-term instead of rising to 7.6%.<\/p>\n<p>Lower expected deficits will help reduce borrowing requirements. The government has also cut its long-term public borrowing outlook by $9.3 billion this year to $32.2 billion, and to $38.4 billion in 2023-24 and $32.3 billion in 2024-25. <\/p>\n<hr>\n<div id=\"everviz-UBzHjQiL_\" class=\"everviz-UBzHjQiL_\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/UBzHjQiL_\/?v=4\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<h4>Ontario\u2019s fiscal outlook back on track after pandemic-spending<\/h4>\n<p>After a record year for revenue growth, Ontario has seemingly diverted the fiscal catastrophe feared at the onset of the pandemic. Last year\u2019s surge in government income is projected to benefit the province\u2019s fiscal position over the next three years, as its deficit continues to shrink. The sharp cuts to deficit projections and downward revisions to the net debt-to-GDP ratio are clear indications that Ontario\u2019s finances are getting back to a sustainable path.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><em><b>Rachel Battaglia <\/b> is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macro and regional analysis group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Budget shortfall cut by more than a third this year and nearly eliminated by 2024-25. Last year\u2019s revenue spurt continues to set a more positive base. Provincial government assumes a mild recession in 2023. The province\u2019s net debt-to-GDP ratio is now tracking below pre-pandemic levels. As expected, Ontario\u2019s Fall Economic Statement included sizable downward revisions [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":189,"featured_media":1870,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,91,45],"tags":[26],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-1872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks","category-provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements","tag-ontario"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ontario slashes its deficit projection - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Budget shortfall cut by more 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href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial and Fiscal Outlooks<\/a>","<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial Budgets and Economic Statements<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Canadian Analysis<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial and Fiscal Outlooks<\/span>","<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Provincial Budgets and Economic Statements<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/provincial-budgets-and-economic-statements\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Ontario<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Ontario<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 3 years ago","modified":"Updated 3 years ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on November 15, 2022","modified":"Updated on November 15, 2022"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on November 15, 2022 1:19 am","modified":"Updated on November 15, 2022 1:19 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/189"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1870"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1872"},{"taxonomy":"rbc_econ_content_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbc_econ_content_type?post=1872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}