{"id":1801,"date":"2022-10-12T04:49:43","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T04:49:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2022\/10\/12\/crossing-the-lines\/"},"modified":"2022-10-12T04:49:43","modified_gmt":"2022-10-12T04:49:43","slug":"crossing-the-lines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/","title":{"rendered":"Crossing the line(s)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Highlights<\/h4>\n<li>A hawkish Fed and firm US inflation pushed Treasury yields to fresh highs.<\/li>\n<li>We now see fed funds rising to 4.50-4.75% early next year, above the BoC\u2019s 4% terminal rate.<\/li>\n<li>The new UK government\u2019s fiscal plan prompted a sharp selloff in Gilts and Sterling.<\/li>\n<li>We think the BoE will be forced to push back against fiscal stimulus, though not as aggressively as the market is assuming.<\/li>\n<li>We expect another 75 bp hike by the ECB later this month, leaving the RBA alone in its dovish pivot.<\/li>\n<hr>\n<p>The early-summer rally in equities and Treasuries continued to reverse in September with stocks taking out their June lows and yields eclipsing earlier highs. By the end of September the S&#038;P 500 was down 25% from its January peak\u2014close to the median recession drawdown of 27%\u2014while 10-year US Treasury yields briefly breached the 4% mark. The dual selloff continued to be a powerful catalyst for the US dollar which gained nearly 4% in September. Volatility remained elevated across asset classes in early October.<\/p>\n<p>Firm US inflation data and hawkish guidance from the Fed were key drivers of the Treasury selloff, though spillover from a sharp rise in UK borrowing costs also pushed yields higher in late September. Investors didn\u2019t take kindly to the new UK government\u2019s fiscal largesse as it tacked on a number of tax cuts to what was already a massive spending commitment aimed at capping energy bills. Gilts and sterling sold off sharply, forcing the BoE to delay plans to sell some of its bond holdings and instead offer to purchase long-dated Gilts in an effort to \u201crestore orderly market conditions.\u201d But the relief rally was short-lived and the market is looking for aggressive rate hikes by the BoE as monetary and fiscal policy push in opposite directions.<\/p>\n<p>While global growth prospects have dimmed\u2014the IMF just trimmed its global GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.7%, and even that looks optimistic\u2014only the RBA has made a dovish pivot, surprising on the downside with a 25 bp hike in October. Other central banks continue to pile on aggressive rate increases despite growing recession concerns. We look for 75 bp hikes by the Fed, BoE and ECB at their upcoming policy meetings. We wouldn\u2019t rule out a similar move by the BoC though our base case is for a 50 bp increase in later this month.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-zLeL-uKSR\" class=\"everviz-zLeL-uKSR\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/zLeL-uKSR\/?v=1\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Policy divergence adding to Canadian dollar headwinds<\/h4>\n<p>The BoC has kept pace with (and even led) the Fed this tightening cycle, with markets pricing similar terminal policy rates for much of this year. But expectations began to diverge in the past month amid differing trends in inflation and jobs data, and following the Fed\u2019s surprisingly hawkish dot plot in September. The fed funds rate is now seen peaking nearly 50 bps above the BoC\u2019s overnight rate. That would be well within historical patterns\u2014the Fed hiked an additional 50 to 100 bps in each of the past three tightening cycles. We think some policy divergence is also reasonable given the Canadian economy\u2019s greater exposure to housing and higher levels of household debt. Canada-US bond spreads have tightened significantly with more attractive yields in the US contributing to a weaker Canadian dollar against the greenback.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, the Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020 and continued to sink from there, dropping to 73 cents by the end of the month. It remains the case\u2014as we pointed out last month\u2014that the Canadian dollar is up against all other G10 currencies year-to-date. So while the Canadian dollar is down more than 7% this year relative to the US dollar, it\u2019s only 2% lower on a trade weighted basis. A weaker currency represents an easing in financial conditions\u2014supporting exports and lifting import prices and inflation\u2014which the BoC might see conflicting with its objectives to tighten policy and slow growth and inflation. Indeed, Governor Macklem said the currency isn\u2019t providing any additional support in the BoC\u2019s fight against inflation, which could mean more rate hikes, all else equal. We continue to assume the BoC will dial back the pace of rate hikes with a 50 bp increase later this month. But the Fed\u2019s hawkishness and the currency\u2019s weakness keep a 75 bp increase on the table, and any upside surprise in key inflation and inflation expectations data between now and October 26th could tip the scales in favour of a larger move.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-GyUxBduI7\" class=\"everviz-GyUxBduI7\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/GyUxBduI7\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Canada\u2019s economy continues to gear down<\/h4>\n<p>While GDP data for the first half of the year suggest Canada\u2019s economy strongly outperformed the US, more recent indicators tell a different story. Canadian employment has declined in three of the past four months (net job losses totaling 92,000) while average payroll gains south of the border have been a robust 350,000 over that period with the jobless rate remaining at the lowest levels in half a century in September. Canada\u2019s monthly core inflation edged lower in August\u2014something the BoC will want to see more of in the coming months\u2014but US core inflation re-accelerated. We think easing headline inflation in the US has contributed to a partial rebound in consumer confidence in recent months. But while Canada has seen a similar turnover in all items CPI, sentiment remains weak. Rate hikes are beginning to take a toll on both economies though Canadian home sales are down by one third over the past six months compared with a 20% drop in the US. And Canada has seen a more significant price correction thus far. <\/p>\n<p>Canadian GDP edged up by 0.1% in July, ahead of the earlier flash estimate, though a flat advanced reading for August leaves annualized growth below 1% over the past four months. We\u2019ve trimmed our Q3 growth forecast to a 1% annualized pace\u2014half the increase the BoC projected in July, though we think they\u2019ll welcome the sub-trend pace which is needed (on a sustained basis) to better balance supply and demand and ease domestic inflationary pressure. With the economy losing a bit more momentum than we previously thought and interest rates moving higher, we\u2019ve <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/canadas-recession-to-arrive-earlier-than-expected\/\">brought forward<\/a> our forecast for a recession to begin in the first half of 2023 (previously the middle quarters). We see Canada\u2019s jobless rate rising to nearly 7% by the end of next year from 5.2% in September.<\/p>\n<h4>Hawkish Fed cements steeper near-term policy path<\/h4>\n<p>We expected the September FOMC meeting would maintain the Fed\u2019s hawkish tone from August, but the central bank went a step further, flagging a steeper near-term tightening path than we and the market anticipated. The updated dot plot median shows a cumulative 125 bps of hikes over the final two meetings this year and some further, modest tightening in 2023. The committee trimmed its GDP growth projections and revised its unemployment rate forecast higher but both remain in \u201csoft landing\u201d territory and in our view are too optimistic. We continue to expect the US economy will slip into recession in the first half of next year with the jobless rate rising to 5% in the second half of 2023 (the Fed\u2019s Q4\/23 forecast is just 4.4%). <\/p>\n<p>While we think the economy will ultimately fare worse than the Fed is projecting, we see little reason to push back against its near-term tightening plans. Domestic demand growth has clearly slowed, but the labour market is showing impressive resilience. And beyond lower gasoline prices, inflationary pressure isn\u2019t letting up\u2014July\u2019s benign core inflation print turned out to be a head fake. So the Fed\u2019s dovish pivot will have to wait. Our forecast now assumes another 75 bp hike in November followed by a 50 bp increase in December and 25 bps in February. The yield curve is likely to flatten further in the coming months with longer-term yields expected to come down amid a softening economic backdrop and easing inflation, while a still-hawkish Fed will keep the front end sticky.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-YKNmvueRR\" class=\"everviz-YKNmvueRR\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/YKNmvueRR\/?v=2\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>UK fiscal statement pushes Gilt yields sharply higher<\/h4>\n<p>The new UK government ran afoul of investors when it announced a number of tax cuts (or cancellations of planned tax increases and new levies) that will cost HM Treasury \u00a327 billion (roughly 1% of GDP) in the upcoming fiscal year and up to \u00a345 billion in later years. That was on top of an energy support package aimed at capping costs for households and non-domestic users that is expected to be worth \u00a360 billion in the next six months alone. This fiscal largess combined with the government\u2019s failure to lay out a credible medium-term plan sent the Gilt market into a tailspin. 10-year yields rose 100 bps in a matter of days and longer-term Gilts were under even more pressure. That prompted the BoE to delay plans to begin selling some of its bond holdings (active QT) and launch a temporary purchase program for longer-term bonds. <\/p>\n<p>The latter is aimed at supporting market functioning rather than reducing borrowing costs, so after a brief relief rally in late-September, 10-year yields are back to their earlier highs. Sterling is up from its multi-decade low against the US dollar but we think that level could be re-tested in the coming months. Government energy support will help households but won\u2019t fix the UK\u2019s current account and budget deficits, and some currency adjustment will be needed to attract capital inflows.<\/p>\n<p>The government\u2019s fiscal plan was unveiled just a day after the BoE\u2019s latest policy meeting at which it hiked Bank Rate by 50 bps to 2.25%. While it said the government\u2019s energy support program (details but not cost had already been revealed) will significantly reduce the peak in headline inflation\u2014ostensibly necessitating less aggressive tightening\u2014the central bank hinted that stronger demand due to fiscal support could prompt a more forceful monetary policy response. It reiterated that message following the government\u2019s announcement, with a special statement from Governor Bailey saying the BoE won\u2019t hesitate to raise rates \u201cas much as needed\u201d to get inflation back to target over the medium term. But we think the nearly 6% terminal rate now priced into the market (including moves of at least 100 bps at each of the remaining two meetings this year) is too aggressive. We think the BoE can still send a message by ratcheting up to a 75 bp hike in November before reverting to a 50 bp increase in December. We\u2019ve lifted our terminal Bank Rate forecast to 3.75% from 3% previously. While the BoE still plans to begin active QT at the end of October, we think that move could be delayed once again.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-VLCYGqH5-\" class=\"everviz-VLCYGqH5-\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/VLCYGqH5-\/?v=5\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Euro area recession likely began in Q3<\/h4>\n<p>Euro area manufacturing and services PMIs slipped further into contractionary territory in September, supporting our view that the currency bloc entered a recession in the third quarter. High inflation, sharply rising energy costs, economic uncertainty and softening demand were all cited as driving the slowdown. The manufacturing survey reported that production was reduced in some cases in response to higher energy prices. In the factory-intensive German economy, output levels fell at the sharpest rate since the global financial crisis (excluding pandemic-impacted months). While European natural gas prices have continued to come off their August peak, they remain twice as high as pre-Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. We look for the euro area\u2019s slowdown to deepen in the coming quarters, and continue to think the ECB\u2019s staff forecasts from September are too optimistic. But with the central bank remaining laser-focused on fighting inflation (unlike in the UK, support for energy consumers isn\u2019t in the form of price caps and thus won\u2019t reduce measured inflation) we think it will opt for another 75 bp rate hike later this month. Our forecast for a 2.5% terminal rate is below market pricing for closer to 3% by mid-2023.<\/p>\n<h4>RBA goes it alone with dovish pivot<\/h4>\n<p>The RBA bucked the global trend in October, opting for a 25 bp hike when consensus was looking for a fifth consecutive 50 bp move. While it reiterated that further rate increases should be expected, the smaller increment reflected the fact that the cash rate has been \u201cincreased substantially in a short period of time.\u201d The statement also noted the full effects of past rate hikes have yet to be felt in mortgage payments. We think this slower pace of tightening will be the new norm for the RBA with 25 bp hikes at each of its remaining two meetings this year. The central bank gearing down its tightening cycle supports our view that the cash rate is nearing its terminal value. We think our below market 3.1% call is justified by faster monetary policy transmission via variable rate mortgages, as well as Australia\u2019s high levels of household debt.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div class=\"img w-mob-100\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-30186\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See Full Report<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com\/v\/crossing-the-lines2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_211008\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Central banks shuffling toward the exit PDF\">Download<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":268,"featured_media":1799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-1801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-markets-monthly","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crossing the line(s) - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020. - RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crossing the line(s)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020. - RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-12T04:49:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1236\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Josh Nye\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Josh Nye\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Josh Nye\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528\"},\"headline\":\"Crossing the line(s)\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-12T04:49:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\"},\"wordCount\":2112,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"keywords\":[\"Economy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Monthly Forecast Update\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\",\"name\":\"Crossing the line(s) - RBC Economics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-12T04:49:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528\"},\"description\":\"The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020. - RBC Economics\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1236},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Crossing the line(s)\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/\",\"name\":\"RBC Economics\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528\",\"name\":\"Josh Nye\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Josh Nye\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/josh-nye\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Crossing the line(s) - RBC Economics","description":"The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020. - RBC Economics","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Crossing the line(s)","og_description":"The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020. - RBC Economics","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/","og_site_name":"RBC Economics","article_published_time":"2022-10-12T04:49:43+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1236,"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Josh Nye","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Josh Nye","Est. reading time":"11 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/"},"author":{"name":"Josh Nye","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528"},"headline":"Crossing the line(s)","datePublished":"2022-10-12T04:49:43+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/"},"wordCount":2112,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","keywords":["Economy"],"articleSection":["Monthly Forecast Update"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/","name":"Crossing the line(s) - RBC Economics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","datePublished":"2022-10-12T04:49:43+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528"},"description":"The Canadian dollar fell below the 76 US cent mark in September for the first time since 2020. - RBC Economics","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","width":2560,"height":1236},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/crossing-the-lines\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Crossing the line(s)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/","name":"RBC Economics","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/d44e5d2581cf957836ba7d1ef4af6528","name":"Josh Nye","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/32e5e3c5f9262b2b78b019886ca43dc22ea5c8e9cb105daadb22698d5224d4f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Josh Nye"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/josh-nye\/"}]}},"author_meta":{"display_name":"Josh Nye","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/author\/josh-nye\/"},"featured_img":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80&w=300","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/\/2025\/03\/Banner-wide-494-scaled-1.jpg?quality=80","coauthors":[],"tax_additional":{"categories":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/financial-markets-monthly\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Forecast Update<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Monthly Forecast Update<\/span>"]},"tags":{"linked":["<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/category\/financial-markets-monthly\/\" class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/a>"],"unlinked":["<span class=\"advgb-post-tax-term\">Economy<\/span>"]}},"comment_count":"0","relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 3 years ago","modified":"Updated 3 years ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on October 12, 2022","modified":"Updated on October 12, 2022"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on October 12, 2022 4:49 am","modified":"Updated on October 12, 2022 4:49 am"},"featured_img_caption":"","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/268"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1801\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}