{"id":17372,"date":"2026-11-13T19:57:42","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T19:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=17372"},"modified":"2026-11-13T20:02:36","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T20:02:36","slug":"retail-sales-set-to-hold-up-under-price-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/retail-sales-set-to-hold-up-under-price-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail sales set to hold up under price pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Next week, the focus will be on retail sales, which have remained strong despite headwinds from high gas prices. <strong>We forecast headline retail sales grew 0.1% m\/m in October<\/strong>, reflecting a slowing following the strong September print.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We expect the biggest drag will come from a slowdown in auto sales, which have fallen on a volume basis the past two months. And while gas prices provided some relief in the back half of the month, they remain elevated, keeping stress on low- and middle-income consumers. Resultingly, we have seen some sectors lag inflation since the start of the year, reflecting a volume pullback (recall that retail sales is nominal), including groceries, building and garden supplies, and general merchandise. But many sectors continue to outperform, including health and personal care, restaurants, and nonstore sales, all of which have risen more than double the pace of inflation since January 2026. We view this is evidence of the growing K-shape consumer trends, with the upper K supported by retirees who tend to spend a larger share of their incomes on restaurants and health care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stripping out the impact of auto and gas sales and importantly for the control group (a direct input into the GDP estimate for Q4), we forecast stronger growth of 0.3% m\/m.<\/strong> This strength reflects the start of the holiday shopping season, which we anticipate will be most obvious in the continued rise of online shopping. Nonstore sales comprise nearly 20% of total retail sales, nearly double the share from just a decade ago. Part of shift is the convenience factor, and the trend was accelerated by the Covid shutdowns in 2020. Still, we remain concerned regarding the transport margins there \u2013 online sales require deliveries, which may not fully capture the uptick in gas prices this year. With freight prices continuing to climb for businesses, we suspect this will impact consumer deliveries as well \u2013 either directly through increased delivery fees or an increase to annual membership fees in 2027. Either way, it represents another way in which consumers will pay the price for higher gas prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The silver lining is that despite higher gas prices, the current growth rate of retail sales ex-gasoline (4.5A% y\/y) is trending near the median seen over the past 30 years. Put another way consumers are maintaining consumption for now, but are at increasing risk of interest rate hikes, as their reliance on credit is on the rise. If the Fed moves towards an every meeting pace of rate hikes, we would expect the lower-K consumers to pull back meaningfully in Q1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"h-retail-sales-ex-gas-growing-at-a-health-pace\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-1\"><strong>Retail sales ex-gas growing at a health pace<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af78466be9a9&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af78466be9a9\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3125\" height=\"2500\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png\" alt=\"Retail sales ex-gas growing at a health pace\" class=\"wp-image-17377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-C-retail-sales.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3125px) 100vw, 3125px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"h-consumer-credit-is-increasingly-supporting-retail-spending\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-2\"><strong>Consumer credit is increasingly supporting retail spending<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af78466bff9a&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af78466bff9a\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3125\" height=\"2500\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png\" alt=\"Consumer credit is increasingly supporting retail spending\" class=\"wp-image-17381\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Change-in-revolving-consumer-credit-outstanding-as-a-of-retail-sales-control-group.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3125px) 100vw, 3125px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af78466c077b&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af78466c077b\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"10345\" height=\"5985\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png\" alt=\"Retail sales set to hold up under price pressure\" class=\"wp-image-17385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png 10345w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png?resize=300,174 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png?resize=768,444 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png?resize=1024,592 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png?resize=1536,889 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/TableWANov13_fef1fb.png?resize=2048,1185 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 10345px) 100vw, 10345px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":4521,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,103,17,65,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-17372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-housing","tag-inflation","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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