{"id":17263,"date":"2026-11-10T20:51:39","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T20:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=17263"},"modified":"2026-11-10T20:51:41","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T20:51:41","slug":"new-immigration-levels-plan-adds-upside-to-population-growth-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/new-immigration-levels-plan-adds-upside-to-population-growth-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"New Immigration Levels Plan adds upside to population growth outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One-time initiatives complementing Canada\u2019s 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan will accelerate permanent residency for workers already in Canada, bringing the permanent resident (PR) admissions ceiling to a historic high in 2027. Though official targets remain unchanged\u2014380,000 new permanent residents (PRs) and 370,000 temporary resident (TR) admissions annually\u2014overlapping one-time exemptions create room for a modest population boost following a period of significant population deceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-hlf wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Permanent residents:<\/strong> a person given status to remain in Canada on a permanent basis but is not a Canadian citizen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Non-permanent residents (temporary residents):<\/strong> include internationals students, temporary foreign workers, and others on temporary permits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While a significant share of PR admissions are intended to come from transitioning non-permanent residents (NPRs) already in the country, historical precedent suggests achieving large outflows of NPRs in short order\u2014through transitions or departures\u2014can be difficult to achieve. This introduces upside to population growth as more TRs remain in the country. Lower barriers for high-earning and in-demand applicants already in Canada\u2014including reduced point thresholds for specific categories, major point boosts for high-wage workers, and the elimination of the Labour Market Impact Assessment requirement\u2014may also entice more TRs to stay by transitioning to permanent residency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The net population impact will depend on how fully these temporary measures are utilized and how many new PR admissions come from the domestic NPR pool that would\u2019ve otherwise left the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-HZCjFz-pB\" class=\"everviz-HZCjFz-pB\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">Given the abundance of inventory in the housing market, a modest acceleration in population growth doesn\u2019t introduce substantial risk to affordability near-term. That said, this could quickly change as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/special-housing-reports\/mid-year-outlook-for-canadas-housing-market-between-correction-and-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights-17263-70fcfaba\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"existing pent-up demand \" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">existing pent-up demand<\/a> is unlocked. Other critical infrastructure, like healthcare, the power grid, and water management systems may not have the same buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-permanent-resident-inflow-could-spike-in-2027\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">Permanent resident inflow could spike in 2027<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overlapping one-time measures introduced in consecutive immigration plans could allow Canada to admit more than 600,000 new permanent residents in 2027\u2014the highest annual intake on record. On top of the official 380,000 PR target, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/canada-maintains-tight-immigration-policy-despite-permanent-resident-exemptions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights-17263-70fcfaba\" data-dig-label=\"last year\u2019s plan\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">last year\u2019s plan<\/a> included exemptions for up to 115,000 protected persons and their dependents as well as 33,000 skilled workers\u00a0already in the country\u00a0over 2026 and 2027. Based on the updated 2026 allocations, 82,000 of these admissions are expected to carry into 2027. The latest plan layers an additional 200,000 transitions to these existing commitments, bringing the total PR ceiling to 662,000 next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The admissions ceiling then returns to 380,000 in 2028 and 2029, and should allow the permanent resident population to float below 1% of the total population after briefly exceeding that threshold in 2027\u2014a commitment the government introduced last year. These \u201cone-time\u201d initiatives are not scheduled to extend beyond 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-7OSgsTpps\" class=\"everviz-7OSgsTpps\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-temporary-resident-flows-will-determine-canada-s-population-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">Temporary resident flows will determine Canada\u2019s population outlook<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The federal government is intently focused on drawing down Canada\u2019s stock of 2.7 million non-permanent residents to bring their share of the population closer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/how-canadas-new-immigration-targets-will-impact-the-economy\/\">5% target<\/a>. The latest plan reinforces this objective by prioritising temporary resident conversions to permanent residency, adding 200,000 spaces to accelerate the transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But converting temporary residents form within Canada to permanent residency can still have implications for population growth. To the extent that these individuals would\u2019ve otherwise left the country, facilitating their transition instead adds to the total population. Since roughly 200,000 NPRs transition to permanent residency annually anyway, the new exemption may also free up PR capacity for net new foreign arrivals. To have a neutral impact on population growth, the number of NPR conversions would need to double without reducing the number of departures from Canada.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a playbook we\u2019ve seen before. The 2024 Levels Plan sought to significantly reduce the NPR population through departures and transitions to permanent residency. However, the intended outflow fell short by roughly half of target in 2025 and is tracking similarly behind in 2026. Meantime, permanent resident inflows remained broadly on target, with more than half of the intake coming from net new persons to Canada. The larger-than-expected NPR population prompted significant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/revised-numbers-point-to-positive-population-growth-in-canada\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights-17263-70fcfaba\" data-dig-label=\"upward revisions to Canada\u2019s population estimate\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-Insights\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">upward revisions to Canada\u2019s population estimate<\/a> earlier this year. The NPR share of the total population could drop below 6% next year\u2014but even if the government successfully doubles the number of NPRs transitioning to permanent residency, it likely won\u2019t reach its 5% goal in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-1y0qnSPgK\" class=\"everviz-1y0qnSPgK\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[83,82,84],"tags":[115,11,124],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-17263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-featured-analysis","category-insights","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-immigration"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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