{"id":17142,"date":"2026-11-06T14:25:12","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T14:25:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=17142"},"modified":"2026-11-06T15:58:35","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T15:58:35","slug":"canadas-prime-age-unemployment-steady-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadas-prime-age-unemployment-steady-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada&#8217;s prime-age unemployment steady in October"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-the-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">The Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s labour market conditions loosened again in October and slack persists, with employment edging lower (a third consecutive decline) and the unemployment rate rising 0.2 percentage points to 6.7%.<br><br>Weakness was concentrated in the 15 to 24 year cohort, where the unemployment rate rose sharply to 13.7%, driven by both lower employment and rising labour force participation. The unemployment rate for prime-age (24-54) workers was unchanged in comparison, steady at 5.6%.&nbsp;<br><br>In October, overall employment was effectively little changed from September (-4,700) with gains in public sector employment (+50,000) offset by losses in private jobs (-53,000). The growth in public sector jobs was the first in five months, and only partially retraces earlier cumulative loss of 148,000.&nbsp;<br><br>New U.S. tariffs implemented since August 22 have not, and are not expected to lead to widespread layoffs in Canada. They are severe but of a narrow scope. Manufacturing jobs changed little in August and September. Sectors disproportionately affected by U.S. tariffs including auto and steel manufacturers can continue to look to increasing government support to transition out of a period of reduced U.S. demand.&nbsp;<br><br>Looking ahead, we continue to expect there will be progress in Canada\u2019s labour market recovery, notwithstanding softer readings in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Domestic spending has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker\/canadians-keep-spending-through-higher-oil-prices-but-momentum-eased-in-september\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-17142-753b84f0\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"held up well\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">held up<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker\/canadians-keep-spending-through-higher-oil-prices-but-momentum-eased-in-september\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-17142-753b84f0\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"held up well\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\"> <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker\/canadians-keep-spending-through-higher-oil-prices-but-momentum-eased-in-september\/\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-17142-753b84f0\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"held up well\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">well<\/a> into the fall and job postings on Indeed.com rose significantly in October, led by an increase in mining and oil and gas postings that could potentially be tied to increased global demand for Canadian energy export as Middle East supply remains disrupted.&nbsp;<br><br>Our forecast expects the unemployment rate in Canada to keep edging lower, to below 6% in the second half of &nbsp;2027.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-the-details\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">The details:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Employment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Total: \u22124.7k (\u22120.02%) m\/m; +16.5k (+0.08%) y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Full-time: \u221218.1k (\u22120.10%) m\/m, +39.0k (+0.23%) y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Part-time: +13.4k (+0.35%) m\/m, \u221222.5k (\u22120.58%) y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Self-employed: \u22121.8k m\/m, +51.5k (+1.92%) y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Men: \u221219.9k m\/m, \u221255.2k y\/y. Women: +4.9k m\/m, +63.4k y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Public vs. private<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Public sector: +49.6k (+1.12%) m\/m, but \u221269.7k (\u22121.53%) y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Private sector: \u221252.5k (\u22120.38%) m\/m, +34.8k (+0.25%) y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Industry<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Goods-producing: +20.6k. Services-producing: \u221225.3k.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gains: construction +15.6k, educational services +15.0k, health care and social assistance +14.1k, agriculture +4.8k, manufacturing +3.8k.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Declines: wholesale and retail trade \u221228.8k, transportation and warehousing \u221210.1k, professional, scientific and technical \u22124.8k, finance, insurance and real estate \u22123.5k, utilities \u22122.6k.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Unemployment and participation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unemployment rate: 6.7% (+0.2 pt m\/m, \u22120.2 pt y\/y).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Participation: 64.8% (0.0 m\/m, \u22120.4 pt y\/y).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Youth (15\u201324): unemployment 13.7% (+0.7 pt m\/m, \u22120.3 pt y\/y); participation 62.6% (+0.3 pt m\/m).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core-age (25\u201354): unemployment 5.6% (unchanged m\/m, \u22120.2 pt y\/y); participation 88.5% (unchanged).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Provinces<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Provinces, rising m\/m: Alberta 7.3% (+0.9), Saskatchewan 5.9% (+0.5), Ontario 7.3% (+0.3), PEI 7.4% (+0.1).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Provinces, falling m\/m: Newfoundland and Labrador 8.7% (\u22120.4), Quebec 5.7% (\u22120.3), Nova Scotia 6.2% (\u22120.1), British Columbia 6.3% (\u22120.1).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Provinces, unchanged m\/m: New Brunswick 7.4% and Manitoba 5.0%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>R8 unemployment rate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">R8 is 8.98% (+0.12 pt m\/m, \u22120.12 pt y\/y).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The gap to the official rate is about 2.3 points, not significantly different from recent months, so there is no sign of a notable rise in discouraged workers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hours and wages<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hours worked: +0.34% m\/m, +0.55% y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Average hourly wage, all employees: +0.66% m\/m, +2.24% y\/y down from 2.34% in September.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Permanent employees: +0.62% m\/m, +2.04% y\/y.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-zs98KR564\" class=\"everviz-zs98KR564 wp-block-hidden-mobile wp-block-hidden-tablet\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6aee0d65340ab&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6aee0d65340ab\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full hide-on-desktop wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2344\" height=\"1548\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png\" alt=\"Job openings on the rise in Canada in October\" class=\"wp-image-17172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png 2344w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png?resize=300,198 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png?resize=768,507 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png?resize=1024,676 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png?resize=1536,1014 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Screenshot-2026-11-06-at-10.57.58-AM.png?resize=2048,1353 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2344px) 100vw, 2344px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claire Fan<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is a Senior Economist at RBC. She focuses on macroeconomic analysis and is responsible for projecting key indicators including GDP, employment and inflation for Canada and the US.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[83,93],"tags":[115,11,135,58],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-17142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-data-flashes","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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