{"id":17061,"date":"2026-11-05T18:45:31","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T18:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=17061"},"modified":"2026-11-05T20:24:17","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T20:24:17","slug":"the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\/","title":{"rendered":"The energy inflation spillover is imminent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Inflation data is the main event next week. For CPI, <strong>we expect to see both headline and core inflation rose +0.3% m\/m in October. We will not get year-over-year CPI data because we are missing data from October 2025 due to the government shutdown.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-september-cpi-early-signs-of-energy-price-spillover\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-17061-137507b6\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"The September CPI report\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">The September CPI report<\/a> flagged early signs of an energy price spillover, but this was likely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/september-cpi-is-just-the-tip-of-the-inflation-iceberg\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-17061-137507b6\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"just the tip of the inflation iceberg\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">just the tip of the inflation iceberg<\/a>. And we expect that this will continue to be the case in October. Core goods prices have been accelerating over the past three months with pressures building in imported goods categories including apparel and footwear, toys and recreational goods, and IT equipment. Motor vehicle parts and equipment prices (driven by tariff pressures) are beginning to add to used car prices. On the services side, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/the-price-of-us-strength-is-getting-steeper\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-17061-137507b6\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"we have consistently emphasized\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">we have consistently emphasized<\/a> that services inflation is not slated to bring any meaningful relief for the remainder of the year. Housing prices are expected to continue to tick higher, and core services excluding housing (i.e., Super core) has never declined on a year-over-year basis. Taken together, view inflation risks skewed heavily to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/the-us-producer-price-index-an-early-warning-system-for-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-17061-137507b6\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Looking ahead, PPI will provide a better indication of the trajectory of inflation\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Looking ahead, PPI will provide a better indication of the trajectory of inflation<\/a>. <strong>We forecast PPI rose +0.5% m\/m in October<\/strong>, with headline slightly higher as high oil prices filter through to freight costs. Freight has been a key pressure point, with PPI for deep sea transportation up a record 37% y\/y. Since PPI for freight is based on longer-term service contracts negotiated by domestic shipping companies, a pullback in global spot rates for container shipping will not immediately translate to a reprieve \u2014 and higher shipping costs give firms good reason to mark up prices. With costs already flowing through the price pipeline, the damage is likely done, and the evidence is imminent. There is a whopping 4.3 percentage point gap between the year-over-year pace of core PPI (excluding trade services) and core goods CPI \u2014 wider than we typically see \u2014 which suggests passthrough to CPI is imminent if firms aim to preserve margins. Trade services will give us a good gauge of those margins: consistently negative prints could signal compression, while a positive trend would suggest firms are passing higher costs through to consumers rather than cutting labor costs \u2014 something we simply have not seen as indicated by the jobless claims data or WARN notices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color has-text-lg-font-size wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Core PPI for consumer goods outpacing core goods CPI signals price pressure ahead for consumers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6aed186903b50&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6aed186903b50\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"822\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Core-PPI-for-consumer-goods-outpacing-core-goods-CPI-signals-price-pressure-ahead-for-consumers.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"Core PPI for consumer goods outpacing core goods CPI signals price pressure ahead for consumers\" class=\"wp-image-17072\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Core-PPI-for-consumer-goods-outpacing-core-goods-CPI-signals-price-pressure-ahead-for-consumers.png 1595w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Core-PPI-for-consumer-goods-outpacing-core-goods-CPI-signals-price-pressure-ahead-for-consumers.png?resize=300,241 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Core-PPI-for-consumer-goods-outpacing-core-goods-CPI-signals-price-pressure-ahead-for-consumers.png?resize=768,616 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Core-PPI-for-consumer-goods-outpacing-core-goods-CPI-signals-price-pressure-ahead-for-consumers.png?resize=1024,822 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/Core-PPI-for-consumer-goods-outpacing-core-goods-CPI-signals-price-pressure-ahead-for-consumers.png?resize=1536,1233 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6aed18690403d&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6aed18690403d\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"466\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"US Week Ahead - RBC Economics\" class=\"wp-image-17077\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png 5173w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png?resize=300,137 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png?resize=768,350 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png?resize=1024,466 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png?resize=1536,700 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/11\/US-WA-Nov-5-2026.png?resize=2048,933 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,103,65,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-17061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The energy inflation spillover is imminent - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inflation data is the main event next week. For CPI, we expect to see both headline and core inflation rose +0.3% m\/m in October.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The energy inflation spillover is imminent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation data is the main event next week. For CPI, we expect to see both headline and core inflation rose +0.3% m\/m in October.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-11-05T18:45:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-05T20:24:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/06\/FG.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"3067\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"viktoriyapanahova\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"viktoriyapanahova\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"viktoriyapanahova\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea\"},\"headline\":\"The energy inflation spillover is imminent\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-11-05T18:45:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-11-05T20:24:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":518,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/FG.webp\",\"keywords\":[\"Economy\",\"GDP\",\"Inflation\",\"Labour Market\",\"U.S.\"],\"articleSection\":[\"U.S. Week Ahead\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/\",\"name\":\"The energy inflation spillover is imminent - RBC Economics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/us-week-ahead\\\/the-energy-inflation-spillover-is-imminent\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/FG.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-11-05T18:45:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-11-05T20:24:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbc.com\\\/en\\\/economics\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/109dd1bd3c90e818f8159356d46905ea\"},\"description\":\"Inflation data is the main event next week. 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