{"id":17030,"date":"2026-11-06T16:02:11","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T16:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=17030"},"modified":"2026-11-06T16:02:13","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T16:02:13","slug":"industry-data-point-to-tepid-canadian-growth-in-late-q3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/industry-data-point-to-tepid-canadian-growth-in-late-q3\/","title":{"rendered":"Industry data point to tepid Canadian growth in late Q3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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For the week of November 9nd<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s manufacturing and wholesale sales reports for September next Friday should add to evidence that the economy grew less than expected in Q3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gross domestic product growth has already flatlined in July and August, and likely contracted by 0.1% in September, according to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate. Preliminary GDP estimates have been highly prone to revision and need to be taken with a large grain of salt. Taking the September estimate as is would put annualized GDP growth in Q3 at around 1.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pace of growth is weaker than both our 1.8% base case forecast and the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 2% in its October Monetary Policy Report. It’s also significantly slower than the 3.3% expansion in Q2, although the slowdown was expected given that part of the Q2 strength reflected a one-time rebound in auto production and exports that won\u2019t be repeated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect the September manufacturing and wholesale reports will align with a mild contraction in real GDP. The advance estimate suggests nominal manufacturing sales rose 0.1%, which translates to 2% decline in volume once a 2.2% month-over-month increase in manufacturing producer prices is factored in (driven by a 16% increase in petroleum refinery prices).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the pullback may also be related to unplanned production stoppages at U.S. auto plants that led to a sharp decline in cross-border auto trade in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Offsetting some of that weakness is an expected 0.5% increase in September’s wholesale sales (advance estimate ex-petroleum), reflecting strength in machinery, equipment, and supplies consistent with stronger imports in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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