{"id":16679,"date":"2026-10-28T20:06:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T20:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=16679"},"modified":"2026-10-29T15:43:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T15:43:18","slug":"fomc-recap-this-is-not-a-1980s-hiking-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/fomc-recap-this-is-not-a-1980s-hiking-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC recap: This is not a 1980s&#8217; hiking cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the October meeting, as expected.<\/strong> The Fed&#8217;s meeting today was a clearly intended placeholder, with explicit references to needing to wait to &#8220;accumulate more information&#8221;. Some minor upgrading of growth expectations and some references in the press conference to ongoing concerns about inflation are consistent with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/monthly-forecast-update-rising-bond-yields-softer-labour-data-buy-central-banks-time\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-16679-4f42cb4e\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"our expectation that two more rate hikes are ahead\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">our expectation that two more rate hikes are ahead<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Chair Warsh also unveiled a change to meetings starting next year. The change adds \u201cstrategy\u201d meetings with no rate decisions \u2013 with one scheduled for 2027 and two in 2028, meaning we\u2019d only get 6 rate decisions in 2028. Some strategic thinking is probably warranted to assess why it makes sense to both see persistent inflation but not necessarily an aggressive hiking cycle as we might have seen in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/fomc-recap-tightening-into-an-inflationary-supply-shock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-16679-4f42cb4e\" data-dig-label=\"It is pertinent to reiterate\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">It is pertinent to reiterate<\/a> that two additional hikes (or more) are unlikely to meaningfully tame inflation that is driven by both supply shocks and demand that is relatively insensitive to interest rates. With oil prices up 20% year-over-year amid the Iran War, many are likening the current inflation environment to the late 1970s and early 1980s&#8217; during the Iranian Revolution, when then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker intervened with an impromptu 100-basis-point hike and subsequently ratcheted interest rates up to 20% in less than two years. But this is no &#8220;Saturday Night Massacre&#8221; and this is not a 1980s&#8217; hiking cycle. Why don&#8217;t we expect the Fed to hike aggressively? In essence, the current economy looks very different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are five reasons why:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-1-consumers-are-less-exposed-to-higher-gasoline-prices\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">1. Consumers are less exposed to higher gasoline prices<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae3c5c0da2eb&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae3c5c0da2eb\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3125\" height=\"2500\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16732\" style=\"width:700px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/NEW-US-C-Gas-as-a-of-total-consumption.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3125px) 100vw, 3125px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">Gasoline accounted for nearly 6% of household spending in 1980; today it represents just over 2%. Services now make up two-thirds of consumption, with a growing share going to health care as the population ages \u2014 spending that is largely non-discretionary and therefore less rate-sensitive. This lower relative exposure to energy prices is one reason consumer spending has remained resilient despite seven months of double-digit energy inflation. Real personal spending is up 2.5% year-over-year, whereas in 1980 it outright declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-2-non-labor-income-makes-up-a-larger-share-of-total-personal-income-today\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">2. Non-labor income makes up a larger share of total personal income today<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae3c5c0dae96&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae3c5c0dae96\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3125\" height=\"2500\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png\" alt=\"FOMC recap: This is not a 1980\u2019s hiking cycle\" class=\"wp-image-16719\" style=\"width:700px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/US-C-Social-security-income-as-a-of-total-personal-income1.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3125px) 100vw, 3125px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">In 1980, wages accounted for 60% of personal income, so the key question was whether wage growth was keeping pace with inflation. Today, non-labor income \u2014 transfers, interest, dividends and rents \u2014 represents a much larger share. The most relevant question, therefore, is how interest rate hikes affect these sources. The answer is not much. In fact, higher interest rates would provide a boost to interest income and do little to change the other income sources in the short term. Additionally, retirees are set for a 3.6% boost to Social Security income in January through cost-of-living adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-3-non-residential-investment-accounts-for-a-massive-share-of-gdp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3\">3. Non-residential investment accounts for a massive share of GDP<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae3c5c0db9c1&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae3c5c0db9c1\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3125\" height=\"2500\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png\" alt=\"FOMC recap: This is not a 1980\u2019s hiking cycle\" class=\"wp-image-16723\" style=\"width:700px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-5.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 3125px) 100vw, 3125px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">The AI buildout has fueled a surge in non-residential equipment investment, and the firms driving that spending \u2014 predominantly large companies with significant access to capital \u2014 are unlikely to pull back in response to modestly higher rates. Chair Warsh himself has acknowledged that an AI-driven productivity boom could ultimately lead to lower costs, reinforcing the incentive to invest. Non-residential investment now accounts for 16% of real GDP, double its share in the 1980s&#8217;, and the bar for rate hikes to alter that trajectory is well above our expected path through 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-4-the-us-labor-market-is-still-exceptionally-tight\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4\">4. The US labor market is still exceptionally tight<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae3c5c0dc49e&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae3c5c0dc49e\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"819\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"FOMC recap: This is not a 1980\u2019s hiking cycle\" class=\"wp-image-16724\" style=\"width:700px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-6.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">At 4.2%, the unemployment rate sits near a record low as retirements push breakeven employment to exceptionally low levels. Jobless claims have moved sideways since 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/how-to-monitor-the-persistent-tightness-in-the-us-labor-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-16679-4f42cb4e\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"re-employment rates remain high\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">re-employment rates remain high<\/a> for those who have lost jobs, and average weekly hours are increasing \u2014 suggesting workers can boost hours or take on second jobs as underemployment trends lower. The data is simply not showing signs of layoffs to preserve margins. In contrast, the unemployment rate rose 2 full percentage points between 1979 and 1980, and although economists\u2019 calculations of the equilibrium unemployment rate (NAIRU) was estimated to be much higher then, unemployment still sat well above it. Today, we are likely just below NAIRU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-5-the-federal-deficit-accounts-for-a-growing-share-of-gdp\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5\">5. The Federal deficit accounts for a growing share of GDP<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ae3c5c0ddad2&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ae3c5c0ddad2\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"819\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"FOMC recap: This is not a 1980\u2019s hiking cycle\" class=\"wp-image-16726\" style=\"width:700px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png 3125w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png?resize=300,240 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png?resize=768,614 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png?resize=1024,819 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png?resize=1536,1229 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Fed-7.png?resize=2048,1638 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">Households may be less exposed to both interest rates and inflation than in the 1980s&#8217;, but the federal government is not. The US deficit now exceeds 6% of nominal GDP \u2014 a record outside of a recession and more than double 1980 levels \u2014 funded by over $40 trillion in outstanding debt, or more than 125% of GDP, the highest on record. As yields rise across the curve, the Treasury&#8217;s balance sheet will bear the cost, particularly since federal debt and interest payable make up two-thirds of government liabilities. Importantly, the government budget is set and interest rates aren\u2019t going to change it nor its impact on the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an US<\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12141,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[94,81],"tags":[11,118,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-16679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-featured-analysis","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-fed","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FOMC recap: This is not a 1980s&#039; hiking cycle - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the October meeting, as expected. 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