{"id":16016,"date":"2026-10-16T20:17:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T20:17:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=16016"},"modified":"2026-10-19T20:45:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T20:45:52","slug":"housing-activity-struggles-under-weight-of-high-rates-and-costs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/housing-activity-struggles-under-weight-of-high-rates-and-costs\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing activity struggles under weight of high rates and costs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Next week will be quiet on the data front but should give us time to digest the deluge of concerning inflation data that landed this past week. We get housing data on Tuesday, and both building permits and starts are expected to remain weak in the face of high interest rates and elevated input costs. <strong>Building permits are expected to move largely sideways at 1408k, and housing starts are set to tick up slightly to 1315k<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What matters most for the US housing market is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/how-much-housing-demand-in-the-us-still-lives-at-home\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-16016-34957645\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"affordability\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">affordability<\/a> and the current rate backdrop is derailing any prospect for improvement. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-housing-market-the-deep-freeze-continues\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-16016-34957645\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"The sector has been stuck in a rut\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">The sector has been stuck in a rut<\/a>, mostly subtracting from growth since mid-2024, and we continue to expect that drag to persist. US bond yields remain elevated, with 5s and 10s at their highest level since the Financial Crisis and 30-year yields at their highest since 2004. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-september-cpi-early-signs-of-energy-price-spillover\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-16016-34957645\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"upside surprise in September CPI\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">upside surprise in September CPI<\/a> points to early signs of an energy-price spillover, and the concern is that the report did not fully capture the risks stemming from both tariffs and higher energy prices. We saw this emerge in the PPI data, which posted the single highest month-over-month increase in four years. More importantly, freight prices \u2014 exceedingly elevated \u2014 illustrate that more pressure is coming in the pipeline to CPI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>On top of the immediate inflation risks coming from energy and tariffs, we expect limited building activity and higher financing costs to disincentivize builders, weighing on the supply of new homes.<\/strong> Problematically, a supply-constrained housing market can filter back through inflation. Housing is currently contributing 1.1 percentage points (nearly half) to the year-over-year pace of core CPI\u2013 and despite higher mortgage rates, home prices have continued to rise &nbsp;\u2013 which is not typical. With supply this tight, prices are unlikely to decline, a mechanism that has intuitively worked in the past, meaning we expect sticky housing prices for CPI over the next two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ad729ac88f26&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ad729ac88f26\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized mar-b mob-mar-b wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"839\" height=\"835\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/RBC-Economics-As-rates-rise-there-is-no-meaningful-prospect-for-housing-market-resurgence-.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - As rates rise, there is no meaningful prospect for housing market resurgence\" class=\"wp-image-16030\" style=\"width:650px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/RBC-Economics-As-rates-rise-there-is-no-meaningful-prospect-for-housing-market-resurgence-.png 839w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/RBC-Economics-As-rates-rise-there-is-no-meaningful-prospect-for-housing-market-resurgence-.png?resize=150,150 150w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/RBC-Economics-As-rates-rise-there-is-no-meaningful-prospect-for-housing-market-resurgence-.png?resize=300,300 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/RBC-Economics-As-rates-rise-there-is-no-meaningful-prospect-for-housing-market-resurgence-.png?resize=768,764 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 839px) 100vw, 839px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ad729ac8957f&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ad729ac8957f\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5173\" height=\"1916\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16028\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png 5173w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png?resize=300,111 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png?resize=768,284 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png?resize=1024,379 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png?resize=1536,569 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/WA-Table-Oct16.png?resize=2048,759 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5173px) 100vw, 5173px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,103,17,65,135,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-16016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-housing","tag-inflation","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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