{"id":15893,"date":"2026-10-14T14:18:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T14:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15893"},"modified":"2026-10-26T16:19:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T16:19:08","slug":"us-september-cpi-early-signs-of-energy-price-spillover","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-september-cpi-early-signs-of-energy-price-spillover\/","title":{"rendered":"US September CPI: Early signs of energy price spillover"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The September upside to core inflation (+0.3% m\/m) did very little to quell fears of an increasingly problematic inflation backdrop<\/strong>. And the uncomfortable reality remains that the September report does not fully capture the upside risks stemming from both tariffs and geopolitical conflict translating to higher energy prices. <strong>Higher energy prices drove headline inflation +0.6% m\/m, bringing year-over-year price growth to 3.7%. At 2.6% y\/y, core inflation is still too high and re-accelerating<\/strong>. The breadth of inflationary pressures accelerated in September, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to discount the current inflation backdrop as driven by one-off idiosyncrasies.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At this juncture, we have likely already benefited from a reprieve in housing disinflation. And cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security will provide a tailwind for a group of consumers that is already driving the bulk of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The core goods acceleration was broad. Used cars marked a third consecutive increase with clear momentum. New vehicles, a slight deceleration. And a combination of tariffs and transportation costs are now showing up in recreation commodities \u2013 though we likely have not seen the full extent of it just yet. Both toys and other recreational goods \u2013 products that are largely imported \u2013 posted their largest-ever monthly changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Focusing on the September CPI report, here\u2019s what stood out:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SIGNAL (what matters most)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both core goods (+0.3% m\/m) and core services (+0.4% m\/m) were problematic in the September report.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within core goods, used cars (+0.7% m\/m) have begun to accelerate (now for three consecutive months). Higher prices for motor vehicle parts and equipment (now +0.4% m\/m) are also spilling over to prices for new vehicles (+0.2% m\/m). And motor vehicle maintenance and repair costs are rising consistently \u2013 collateral damage of higher prices for parts and equipment. These trends will be problematic for auto insurance down the line, which will need to account for higher car prices and parts used for repairs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apparel (+0.2% m\/m), recreation commodities (+0.9% m\/m), and education and communication commodities (+0.9% m\/m) \u2013 driven by prices for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants &#8211; all reported outsized price growth in September as the breadth of inflation accelerated. This is an import story, since the categories of goods reporting the highest price increases, like clothing, toys, and computers, are produced abroad.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Supercore inflation rose +0.4% m\/m in September (after a sizeable uptick in August as well) \u2013 the year-over-year pace has accelerated to 3.1%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">OER was up +0.3% m\/m. We have consistently witnessed month-over-month growth in the 0.2-0.3% m\/m range in this category, and we anticipate that the bulk of disinflation has already been felt (in the summer months) given lags between Zillow and NAR data and CPI measures of OER.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>STATIC (the ongoing themes)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices for most essentials are rising above the Fed\u2019s 2% target \u2013 which will weigh on lower-and middle-income consumers. Housing prices are up +3.3% y\/y, accelerating yet again, and medical care services are still +2.5% y\/y, to name a few.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The good news is that grocery prices are not yet problematic. But the bad news is, this is a category where we anticipate we will see spillovers from higher energy prices should they remain elevated. Freight services PPI has spiked and serves as a precursor to broader CPI spillovers.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, we now have Q3 CPI-W at 3.6% y\/y, meaning that retirees receiving Social Security transfers will get a sizeable 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment in January 2027. This will continue to support exceptional services demand.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The September inflation data alone suggests upside risk to core PCE, though September PPI data (landing tomorrow), specifically for medical care services and airfares, will be critical in determining the trajectory of PCE.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>NOISE (distortions and one-offs)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recreation services accelerated +0.3% m\/m in September. Some of this is likely a one-off. Purchase, subscription, and rental of video rose +0.6% m\/m after a few major streaming providers (Disney and Hulu) raised monthly subscription prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6aed1c8c6bf64&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6aed1c8c6bf64\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4233\" height=\"4095\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - Core goods are broadly indicating inflationary risks\" class=\"wp-image-15898\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png 4233w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png?resize=300,290 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png?resize=768,743 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png?resize=1024,991 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png?resize=1536,1486 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/Core-goods-are-broadly-indicating-inflationary-risks.png?resize=2048,1981 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4233px) 100vw, 4233px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an US Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":9675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[85,81],"tags":[11,65,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-15893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-data-flashes","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-inflation","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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