{"id":15875,"date":"2026-10-14T15:21:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T15:21:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15875"},"modified":"2026-10-28T15:52:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T15:52:07","slug":"canadians-keep-spending-through-higher-oil-prices-but-momentum-eased-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker\/canadians-keep-spending-through-higher-oil-prices-but-momentum-eased-in-september\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadians keep spending through higher oil prices but momentum eased in September"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>September spending snapshot:<\/strong> RBC Canadian cardholders continued spending in September, but the three month average growth softened. Our estimate of core retail sales, excluding gasoline and autos, rose 0.4% on a three-month average, down slightly from 0.6% in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discretionary services once again led spending with gains across a range of categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purchases of essentials also remained positive excluding gasoline. However, discretionary goods were broadly flat on a three-month average despite an increase in September and continued growth in clothing purchases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest spending data remains consistent with gradual growth in Canadian household demand. Expected improvements in household incomes and the labour market should provide support, although elevated energy costs continue to weigh on purchasing power. Trade uncertainty remains a downside risk, particularly for households in directly affected industries and regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1886\" height=\"2825\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15881\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.6835859046923498;width:499px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png 1886w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png?resize=200,300 200w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png?resize=768,1150 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png?resize=684,1024 684w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png?resize=1025,1536 1025w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/CST-table-oct14.png?resize=1367,2048 1367w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1886px) 100vw, 1886px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-the-details\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">The details:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discretionary services\u2019 spending rose 1% on a three-month average, easing from 1.5% in August, but remaining the strongest major category. Education, entertainment and travel-related spending all contributed to growth. Entertainment and arts spending increased 1.4%, travel rose 1%, and dining grew a more modest 0.3%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Essentials spending increased 0.6% with gasoline accounting for roughly one-third of the gain. Spending excluding gasoline also continued to grow, supported by groceries and utilities.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gasoline spending increased 2.6% in September, alongside a roughly 7.9% seasonally adjusted rise in gasoline prices. Higher spending at the pumps, therefore, needs to be viewed in the context of sharply higher fuel costs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discretionary goods spending edged down 0.1% despite rising 1.4% in September. Clothing, shoes and related apparel were a bright spot, increasing 1% on a three-month average, while household and construction-related spending grew 0.3%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spending rose across all provinces on a three-month average. Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador posted the strongest gains, followed by New Brunswick. Ontario recorded the smallest increase, while Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan and Alberta exceeded the national pace.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-container is-layout-carousel-carousel is-mobile-per-page-1 is-desktop-per-page-1 default is-style-default\"><div class=\"carousel-wpr top-controls\" data-mobile-per-page=\"1\" aria-label=\"Carousel Container\" data-visible-slide=\"1\" data-infinite-loop=\"true\"><div class=\"carousel-ctrl\"><div class=\"carousel-indicators\"><\/div><button class=\"carousel-prev slick-arrow\" aria-label=\"previous slide\"><\/button><button class=\"carousel-next slick-arrow\" aria-label=\"next slide\"><\/button><\/div><div class=\"col-wpr eh-wpr carousel-inner\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-inner carousel-item\" aria-label=\"Carousel slide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"everviz-d5S7ckZKV\" class=\"everviz-d5S7ckZKV\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-inner carousel-item\" aria-label=\"Carousel slide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"everviz-Q37TjMPDd\" class=\"everviz-Q37TjMPDd\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-inner carousel-item\" aria-label=\"Carousel slide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"everviz-Kua2wnExJ\" class=\"everviz-Kua2wnExJ\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-inner carousel-item\" aria-label=\"Carousel slide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"everviz-fmKFSzmo1\" class=\"everviz-fmKFSzmo1\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-inner carousel-item\" aria-label=\"Carousel slide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"everviz-vZCV2yUO0\" class=\"everviz-vZCV2yUO0\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-carousel-inner carousel-item\" aria-label=\"Carousel slide\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"everviz-B68nQcu_2\" class=\"everviz-B68nQcu_2\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Abbey Xu<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-read-more-from-rbc-economics\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Read more from RBC Economics:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/rising-bond-yields-end-debt-service-reprieve-in-canada\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker-15875-7815906d\" data-dig-label=\"Rising bond yields end debt service reprieve in Canada\n\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Rising bond yields end debt service reprieve in Canada<br><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/job-losses-concentrated-among-young-canadians-in-september\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker-14630-86cc1b47\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Q2 Canadian consumer signals: Spending on fuel overshadowed purchases by sports fans\n\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Job losses concentrated among young Canadians in September<br><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/canadian-industry-data-to-point-to-a-modest-gdp-rebound-in-august\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker-15875-58c6730d\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Canadian industry data to point to a modest GDP rebound in August\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Canadian industry data to point to a modest GDP rebound in August<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapse98611ecf\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapse98611ecf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker-15875-98611ecf\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Methodology\"><div>Methodology<\/div><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapse98611ecf\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>By Carrie Freestone<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RBC\u2019s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data &amp; Analytics\u2019 proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each\u2019s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/privacysecurity\/ca\/index.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker-15875-58c6730d\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-RBCConsumerSpendingTracker\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"www.rbc.com\/privacy\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">www.rbc.com\/privacy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":354,"featured_media":12149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[83,106],"tags":[115,107,11],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-15875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-rbc-consumer-spending-tracker","tag-canada","tag-consumer-spending","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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