{"id":1583,"date":"2022-04-19T20:32:22","date_gmt":"2022-04-19T20:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2022\/04\/19\/low-supply-still-front-and-centre-at-start-of-spring-season\/"},"modified":"2025-03-26T04:54:43","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T04:54:43","slug":"low-supply-still-front-and-centre-at-start-of-spring-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/low-supply-still-front-and-centre-at-start-of-spring-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Low supply still front and centre at start of spring season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This year\u2019s spring market kicked off on a slightly weaker note across Canada though (so far) this may have more to do with supply constraints than softer demand. Home resales and new listings both fell by similar extents in March\u2014down 5.4% m\/m and 5.5%, respectively, nationwide\u2014keeping inventories scarce. Still, the decline in activity was just a minor blip. Resales remained brisk (at 659,000 units, seasonally-adjusted and annualized) and far above pre-pandemic levels. Any cooling effect from the Bank of Canada\u2019s early-March interest rate hike\u2014the first since 2018\u2014likely was minimal. <\/p>\n<h4>Still tight, tight, tight for the most part<\/h4>\n<p>With few units to fight over, fierce competition between buyers barely let up. Demand-supply conditions in all but one market (Toronto) still strongly favour sellers, fueling further widespread price appreciation. The only hint of a market shift is a moderation in the rate of price increase. Canada\u2019s composite MLS Home Price Index rose \u2018just\u2019 1.0% m\/m in March, or close to a third of the average monthly increase in the previous five months (2.9%). Relative to a year ago, the rate of appreciation eased from 29.2% in February to 27.1% in March.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-iog3obWiz\" class=\"everviz-iog3obWiz\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/iog3obWiz\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Prices decelerate in Ontario and British Columbia<\/h4>\n<p>Markets in Ontario (including Toronto) and parts of British Columbia (including Vancouver) accounted for most of the price deceleration last month. Some markets (for example, Cambridge, Brantford, Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo) even saw outright month-to-month declines\u2014all following historic run-ups in the prior six to 12 months. We think these could mark turning points. We expect high-flying property values to face increasing downward pressure in the period ahead as interest rates rise.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-LPV_alVO8\" class=\"everviz-LPV_alVO8\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/LPV_alVO8\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Higher interest rates and affordability issues to pose challenges<\/h4>\n<p>With its 50-basis point hike to 1.0% on April 13, the Bank of Canada set an aggressive course to return its policy rate to a neutral level by year-end. We believe the Bank will add a further 100 basis points over the next six months to 2.0%, or slightly above pre-pandemic levels (1.75%). Higher borrowing costs will worsen already stretched affordability conditions in many parts of the country, which we see cooling homebuyer demand in the period ahead.<\/p>\n<h4>From supply restraint to softening demand<\/h4>\n<p>We expect further moderation in activity over the remainder of this year though it will increasingly reflect softening demand rather than supply scarcity. Peak prices may be coming soon in some markets as demand-supply conditions become more balanced and extremely bullish sentiment fades. <\/p>\n<h4>Local trends diverging<\/h4>\n<p>More intense downward pressure may build in Canada\u2019s pricier markets. That\u2019s because they are most sensitive to higher interest rates. We expect activity and prices to be more resilient in Alberta where local markets have more catching up to do following a prolonged slump before the pandemic.  <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-N1K6ZUGN2\" class=\"everviz-N1K6ZUGN2\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/N1K6ZUGN2\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<hr>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/table-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"267\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36534\" \/><\/p>\n<hr>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-30186\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See PDF with complete charts<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/housespecial-mar22.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_211115\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Monthly Housing October 2021\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Home resales and new listings both fell by similar extents in March\u2014down 5.4% m\/m and 5.5%, respectively, nationwide\u2014keeping inventories scarce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":1581,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-monthly-housing-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Low supply still front and centre at start of spring season - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Home resales and new listings both fell by similar extents in March\u2014down 5.4% m\/m and 5.5%, respectively, nationwide\u2014keeping inventories scarce. - RBC 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