{"id":15745,"date":"2026-10-09T17:54:21","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T17:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15745"},"modified":"2026-10-09T17:54:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T17:54:24","slug":"september-cpi-is-just-the-tip-of-the-inflation-iceberg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/september-cpi-is-just-the-tip-of-the-inflation-iceberg\/","title":{"rendered":"September CPI is just the tip of the inflation iceberg"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Next week brings the September inflation picture \u2014 and we do not expect CPI will be reassuring. Headline inflation remains an oil price story – we forecast headline CPI at +0.6% m\/m, pushing the year-over-year pace up to 3.7%.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

More concerning will be core CPI. We expect a more modest +0.2% m\/m print (rounding-down), but the year-over-year pace is expected to nudge higher to 2.5%.<\/strong> The risk remains that we see limited prospect of a material deceleration in core inflation, and September\u2019s CPI report won\u2019t fully capture the upside risks ahead. Supercore inflation has consistently printed at or above 3% since March and has begun to reaccelerate. Core goods pressures continue to build \u2013 motor vehicle parts and equipment prices have risen in response to tariffs, which is now translating to higher prices for new and used cars. Problematically, sizeable risk sits in the pipeline from both tariffs and geopolitical disruption \u2014 and the core goods backdrop is where we expect to see the most immediate spillover from higher diesel prices. Freight services PPIs have been ugly<\/a> \u2014 we will get a better read with September PPI on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We<\/strong> expect to see another sizable jump in PPI of +0.9% m\/m and core PPI at +0.4% m\/m<\/strong>. Within PPI, trade services \u2014 reflective of margins between wholesaler and retailer acquisition costs and selling prices \u2014 has trended negative for two consecutive months, signaling potential margin compression. A third negative print would be concerning, since this would signify that the volatile trade services print is settling in \u201cmargin compression\u201d territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If August personal spending is any indication, real consumer demand remains exceptionally strong even in the face of inflationary pressures. Year-over-year growth in average weekly earnings has remained stable, but of growing importance is non-labor sources \u2014 transfers, rent, and interest and dividend income \u2014 supported by strong equity valuations and a higher rate environment. Come January, retirees are set to benefit from a sizeable cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to Social Security income just as base effects begin to ease year-over-year headline prints. September’s CPI-W will matter here, since Q3 price growth is the input into the COLA calculation. The bottom line: there is minimal prospect for any help from core services from a demand perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are also slated to get September advance retail sales, which we expect will look strong on the surface at +0.8% m\/m<\/strong>. But we expect the control group will point to moderate growth after a strong August reading.<\/strong> On a month-over-month basis, nonstore spending (i.e., online retailers) has been volatile in the summer due to seasonal quirks surrounding the timing of Prime Day. We will be closely watching this category for signs of consumer fatigue, specifically among middle-income consumers who are increasingly stretched as interest payment burdens rise<\/a>, savings draw down, and reliance on credit deepens. Still, high income consumers will continue to drive the bulk of consumer spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mike Reid<\/strong> is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carrie Freestone<\/strong> is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imri Haggin<\/strong> is an US<\/em><\/em> Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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