{"id":15674,"date":"2026-10-06T14:39:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T14:39:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15674"},"modified":"2026-10-06T14:39:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T14:39:08","slug":"canadian-exports-surged-ahead-of-new-u-s-tariffs-in-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadian-exports-surged-ahead-of-new-u-s-tariffs-in-august\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian exports surged ahead of new U.S. tariffs in August"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-the-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">The Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada&#8217;s trade balance rose sharply to a $4.2 billion surplus in August, boosted by higher energy prices and a surge in exports ahead of new U.S. tariffs imposed late&nbsp;in the month.&nbsp;<br><br>The monthly trade data is notoriously volatile, but looking ahead to September, energy prices continued to move higher with crude oil prices up another 16%. And global shortages of refined products are also driving Canadian energy exports higher\u2014refinedproduct exports (like diesel) were up 13% excluding price impacts in August.<br><br>But some U.S. buyers clearly rushed to import ahead of new tariffs imposed on August 22nd on another ~5% of U.S. imports from Canada\u2014and that boost will reverse in September.&nbsp;<br><br>By our count, Canadian exports to the U.S. of products targeted with the new 50% tariffs were up 40% year-over-year in August.&nbsp;From separately-reported U.S. data, the U.S. average effective tariff rate from Canada edged up just slightly to 3.2% from 2.8% in&nbsp;July,&nbsp; suggesting the bulk of those imports were ahead of the new tariffs imposed late in the month.&nbsp;<br><br>Still, exports to the U.S. excluding tariffed products, and energy products rose ~16% by our count year-over-year.&nbsp; Shipments to non-U.S. destinations rose 40% year-over-year compared to a 24% increase in sales to the United States.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And domestic demand continues to show signs of life\u2014import volumes (excluding price impacts) fell by 1.7% but imports of machinery and equipment (a key indicator of business investment) and consumer goods (an indicator of consumer demand) both rose.&nbsp;<br><br>We continue to expect the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration will have a significant impact on directly targeted sectors but with more than 80% of Canadianexports to the U.S. still maintaining duty free access under CUSMA we expect limited spillover to the broader economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We remain cautiously optimistic that the economy will continue to gradually improve on a per-person and per-worker basis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-the-details\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">The details:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-l-qtr mob-mar-l-qtr\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada&#8217;s merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in August\u2014the largest surplus since May 2022.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Energy exports rose 4.7%\u2014part tied to an increase in prices but also higher export volumes, including of refined petroleum products like diesel due to global shortages.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Non-energy exports also increased\u2014led by a surge in exports of products targeted by new U.S. tariffs beginning August 22.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By our count, export to the U.S. of products targeted with new U.S. tariffs were up 40% year-over-year compared to a 16% increase in ex-energy exports of other products shipped to the U.S. Exports of alcoholic beverages (featured prominently on the U.S. tariff&nbsp;list) jumped 27.6% in August from July.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Metal and non-metallic mineral products and aircraft exports posted the largest offsetting declines in export volumes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall imports fell 1.7%, but largely reflecting sharp declines in (the exceptionally volatile) metal ore and non-metallic mineral product shipments that followed large gains in July.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indicators of domestic demand remained relatively resilient.&nbsp; Imports volumes (excluding price changes) of industrial and electronic equipment jumped 7.5% and 2.8%, respectively, from July. And imports of consumer goods rose 1.8%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From separately reported U.S. trade data this morning, the average effective U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada was 3.2%, little changed from 2.8% in July. That measure will likely increase in September with new tariffs on another 5% of U.S. imports from Canada in effect, although the reality is the 50% tariff rate imposed in September (expanded to outright bans for some products at the end of that month) mean that a large share of those products will simply not be traded in September.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ac57087006ae&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ac57087006ae\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"7954\" height=\"11032\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15684\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png 7954w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png?resize=216,300 216w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png?resize=768,1065 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png?resize=738,1024 738w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png?resize=1107,1536 1107w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/10\/table-Oct-6-2026.png?resize=1477,2048 1477w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 7954px) 100vw, 7954px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Nathan Janzen<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12136,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[83,93],"tags":[115,11,24],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-15674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-data-flashes","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadian exports surged ahead of new U.S. tariffs in August - 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