{"id":1536,"date":"2022-04-06T15:16:59","date_gmt":"2022-04-06T15:16:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2022\/04\/06\/a-split-is-emerging-local-housing-trends-start-to-diverge\/"},"modified":"2022-04-06T15:16:59","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T15:16:59","slug":"a-split-is-emerging-local-housing-trends-start-to-diverge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/local-real-estate-markets\/a-split-is-emerging-local-housing-trends-start-to-diverge\/","title":{"rendered":"A split is emerging: local housing trends start to diverge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The picture is becoming more complex for Canada\u2019s housing market. Local real estate boards reported varying results in March that may signal a break from the uncharacteristically synchronized trends seen during the pandemic. Some markets\u2014including Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Hamilton\u2014continued to post very (and in some cases, extremely) strong activity while others\u2014including Montreal and Toronto\u2014experienced some moderation. Historically-low inventories remain a constant nationwide as are rising prices. But there are signs tight demand-supply conditions are easing in Toronto and Montreal, and we expect the market rebalancing process to gradually spread to other markets in the period ahead. Buyers are already seriously challenged by poor affordability in large markets and the situation will get worse as interest rates rise further. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-IDxNUgjgw\" class=\"everviz-IDxNUgjgw\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/IDxNUgjgw\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>Last month\u2019s first rate hike from the Bank of Canada since 2018 likely had little cooling effect on the market. If anything, it might have heated up demand somewhat as some buyers advanced purchasing decisions to lock-in lower rates. We believe it will be a different story for upcoming rate hikes\u2014we expect our central bank to raise its policy rate by a further 150 basis points by year-end. Activity brought forward since the fall has exhausted some of the future demand, but more importantly materially higher borrowing costs will make it harder for buyers to enter the market. In our latest <a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/housing-affordability-spiraling-to-worrisome-levels\/\">Housing Trends and Affordability<\/a> report, we warned that affordability is at risk of spiralling to worst-ever levels in Canada.<\/p>\n<h4>Toronto area\u2014Near a peak?<\/h4>\n<p>Spring activity is starting on a quieter note this year. Home resales were down 30% in March from a year ago and off an estimated 16% from February (on a seasonally-adjusted basis). Scarce inventories are still an issue but the tightness between demand and supply is easing at last. It looks like rapidly worsening affordability might be (finally) taking a toll on demand. For now, home prices are still under significant upward pressure though the pace slowed in March. The composite MLS HPI rose 2.7% from February, marking a shift down from the average 4.4% gain in the previous five months. Relative to a year ago the price index\u2019s increase moderated slightly to 34.8% from 35.9% in February. While property values may well climb further in the coming months, we expect the pace to moderate\u2014possibly significantly if deteriorating affordability sends more buyers to the sidelines. In fact, we think a peak may soon form. Clearly the $1.38 million price tag for a typical home is a stretch for a growing number of buyers. More of them gravitated toward the least expensive options (e.g. condos) in March, causing the average price of homes sold to fall 2.6% from February.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-LADyN-sl4\" class=\"everviz-LADyN-sl4\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/LADyN-sl4\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Montreal area\u2014Buyer enthusiasm may be waning<\/h4>\n<p>The moderating trend continued last month. We estimate resales fell 4% from February (seasonally adjusted), which would make it the fifth-straight monthly decline. Historically-low inventories have been a significant drag on activity since last year as buyers scrambled to find properties meeting their needs. But we believe rising ownership costs are increasingly tamping down buyers\u2019 enthusiasm. The impact on prices to date has been limited\u2014property values keep going up at rapid clip. Yet we detect subtle signs of moderation on that front as well. Median prices have grown more slowly in recent months, including March. This is especially the case for the more expensive single detached homes. We expect an easing of demand-supply tightness will further rein in price gains in the period ahead. A notable (estimated) drop in the sales-to-new listings ratio in March may be an early sign the market is on its way to a healthier balance. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-gvtO8I711\" class=\"everviz-gvtO8I711\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/gvtO8I711\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Vancouver area\u2014Still going strong\u2026 for now<\/h4>\n<p>Buyers haven\u2019t quit yet. They made more deals in March than in February\u2014we estimate resales went up 4% m\/m (seasonally adjusted)\u2014despite fewer homes put up for sale. Strong buyer competition took prices higher to a record $1.36 million (MLS HPI benchmark), up a solid 3.6% from February and 20.7% from a year ago. Odds are they\u2019ll rise further in the near term. Sellers are still comfortably in the driver\u2019s seat while inventories remain scarce. The drop in new listings tightened demand-supply conditions even more in March. Nonetheless, we expect activity to cool later this year. Buyers will find it increasingly difficult to cope with growing affordability strains arising from sky-high prices and rising interest rates. This will eventually rebalance the market and stabilize prices. We believe affordability issues will drive buyers toward less expensive options such as condos and properties outside the urban core, including smaller markets in the province. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-_TLhfh_-V\" class=\"everviz-_TLhfh_-V\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/_TLhfh_-V\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Calgary\u2014Firing on all cylinders<\/h4>\n<p>The market keeps getting hotter and hotter. Home resales were incredibly strong again in March, after reaching an all-time high in February (seasonally adjusted). While supply picked up significantly in the past two months\u2014new listings were up a solid 24% from a year ago in March\u2014it just wasn\u2019t enough to keep up with soaring demand. So upward price pressure continues to build. The composite MLS HPI jumped 4% m\/m in March, down just modestly from an outsized 5.5% gain in February. Strong successive gains in the last three months have pushed the index up nearly 18% from a year ago\u2014the biggest annual increase since 2007. With the provincial economy now roaring, in-migration rapidly gathering steam and affordability comparing well relative to other major markets, we expect housing demand to stay solid in the period ahead. This is poised to keep prices on a steep upward trajectory. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-NEB9IxJFl\" class=\"everviz-NEB9IxJFl\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/NEB9IxJFl\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30186\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See Report PDF<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com\/v\/a-split-is-emerging-local-housing-trends-start-to-diverge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_211104\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Housing Special 210826\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last month\u2019s first rate hike from the Bank of Canada since 2018 likely had little cooling effect on the market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":1497,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-local-real-estate-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.7 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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