{"id":15349,"date":"2026-09-25T15:32:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T15:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15349"},"modified":"2026-09-25T17:02:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T17:02:48","slug":"healthy-labor-market-supports-a-resilient-consumer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/healthy-labor-market-supports-a-resilient-consumer\/","title":{"rendered":"Healthy labor market supports a resilient consumer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Next week is packed with data, capped off by the September employment report on Friday. We do not expect the labor market data to change the prevailing narrative \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/how-to-monitor-the-persistent-tightness-in-the-us-labor-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"we are not concerned about the labor market\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">we are not concerned about the labor market<\/a>. Nonfarm payrolls have been printing well above our estimate of breakeven employment (+20k), pushing the u-rate lower since the start of the year.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>We expect another solid 83K print in September as job gains broaden beyond health care into the goods sector<\/strong>. Netting out construction hiring \u2014 which has been supported by the AI buildout \u2014 goods sector hiring has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-jobs-report-labor-market-on-solid-footings-despite-energy-shock-concerns\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"not fully recovered jobs shed during the onset of the 2025 trade war\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">not fully recovered jobs shed during the onset of the 2025 trade war<\/a>. A backdrop of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/america-needs-workers-not-jobs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"continued retirements\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">continued retirements<\/a>, extremely low layoffs (claims drifted lower into September), and <strong>minimal immigration&nbsp;is expected to keep the unemployment rate low at 4.1%<\/strong>. Importantly, the trend of slowing wage growth (3.1% y\/y) is overshadowing a better measure of spending power: average weekly earnings (i.e., take home pay), which ticked up to 3.7% y\/y in August.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wednesday&#8217;s BEA personal income and spending report will offer important clues on consumer health. After a blowout retail sales release, <strong>we expect real personal spending rose 0.6% m\/m in August<\/strong>, suggesting consumers continue to spend despite price pressures. Services spending remains exceptionally strong and should hold up in August: restaurant and bar spending popped\u2014and not just due to inflation. Financial services and insurance should contribute meaningfully on the back of a 3% m\/m uptick in the S&amp;P 500. Health care spending will continue to grow due to an aging population. At the same time, lower- and middle-income households are increasingly relying on credit to fuel spending, with non-mortgage interest payments as a share of disposable income <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/fomc-recap-tightening-into-an-inflationary-supply-shock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"teetering just below the 2.8% threshold\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">teetering just below the 2.8% threshold<\/a> that has preceded the three pre-COVID recessions. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/september-executive-briefing-what-to-watch-in-the-final-quarter-of-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"K-shaped economy remains in effect\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">K-shaped economy remains in effect<\/a> and we do expect to see a drop in the personal saving rate to 2.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-t mob-mar-t wp-block-paragraph\">With inflation risks rising, the August PCE print will draw close attention. <strong>We expect to see that core PCE rose 0.2% m\/m and headline PCE up 0.3% m\/m.<\/strong> The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/the-us-producer-price-index-an-early-warning-system-for-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"PPI components that matter most for core PCE\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">PPI components that matter most for core PCE<\/a> \u2014 specifically medical care services \u2014 were largely benign but will be offset by airline fares. With the release, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/pce-deflator-update-a-retroactive-revision-not-a-disinflationary-signal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-label=\"methodology changes to three PCE deflator series\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">methodology changes to three PCE deflator series<\/a> will go into effect. The update is expected to bring a downward shift to the annual pace of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/understanding-pce-deflators-a-primer-on-the-feds-preferred-inflation-measure\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-15349-b03c942c\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"PCE inflation\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">PCE inflation<\/a>, but this should not be mistaken for a sign of disinflation ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"h-components-that-matter-most-for-pce-inflation-were-mixed-in-august\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\"><strong>Components that matter most for PCE inflation were mixed in August<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"697\" height=\"597\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/2026-09-25-WA-Chart-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15382\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/2026-09-25-WA-Chart-1-1.png 697w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/2026-09-25-WA-Chart-1-1.png?resize=300,257 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 697px) 100vw, 697px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"h-2026-payroll-acceleration-pushing-the-u-rate-lower\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">2026 <strong>Payroll acceleration pushing the u-rate lower<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"598\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/c0c88d1d-09a7-473b-babf-41f6fd3bff03.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15398\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/c0c88d1d-09a7-473b-babf-41f6fd3bff03.png 700w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/c0c88d1d-09a7-473b-babf-41f6fd3bff03.png?resize=300,256 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6abc7d263ce4d&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6abc7d263ce4d\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5173\" height=\"2775\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15370\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png 5173w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png?resize=300,161 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png?resize=768,412 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png?resize=1024,549 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png?resize=1536,824 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/US-WA-Sep-25-2026.png?resize=2048,1099 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5173px) 100vw, 5173px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,103,65,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-15349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 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