{"id":15199,"date":"2026-09-23T17:14:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T17:14:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15199"},"modified":"2026-09-23T17:40:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T17:40:40","slug":"revised-numbers-point-to-positive-population-growth-in-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/revised-numbers-point-to-positive-population-growth-in-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"Revised numbers point to positive population growth in Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-the-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">The Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Statistics Canada has revised Canada&#8217;s population numbers upward, pushing annual growth to 0.5% as of Q2 and erasing what had looked like negative year-over-year growth since early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The adjustment comes mainly from updated accounting methodology for non-permanent residents, which are up 240k (+9.4%) from the previous Q2 estimate. The post-pandemic temporary resident surge created a large cohort of work and study permits now expiring, straining the extension processing system as more people remain in the country beyond their permit expiry. Adjustments to the non-permanent <strong>resident estimate account for 80% of the total 301k (+0.7%) population revision.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-lTp-3p3pv\" class=\"everviz-lTp-3p3pv wp-block-hidden-mobile wp-block-hidden-tablet\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-block-hidden-desktop\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"736\" width=\"1024\" fetchpriority=\"auto\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-23-at-1.12.29-PM.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-23-at-1.12.29-PM.png 1484w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-23-at-1.12.29-PM.png?resize=300,215 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-23-at-1.12.29-PM.png?resize=768,552 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-23-at-1.12.29-PM.png?resize=1024,736 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The changes significantly impact how some economic data looks in hindsight\u2014for example, per-capita GDP growth looks less firm over the last year with the upward population revisions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The revisions could impact the outlook for measures like total GDP growth, and employment growth too. More modest population declines in recent quarters could mean more aggressive slowdowns in future\u2014impacting GDP growth and employment as both are functions of population growth. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, the broader economic narrative doesn\u2019t materially change. Canadian structural demographic growth headwinds are still significant\u2014Canada\u2019s population no longer looks on track to decline outright for the first time on record in 2026, but the pace of growth is still tracking the smallest increase on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Demographic estimates have been expected to be more revision-prone than usual, and that\u2019s shifted focus to economic indicators that are less impacted by changes in population growth trends as more reliable gauges of the health of the economy. Those measures\u2014like the unemployment rate\u2014are not impacted significantly by population revisions, and have still been showing signs of improvement to-date in 2026. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-the-details\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">The details:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>GDP growth: backward looking per-capita estimates not as strong and more demographic headwinds ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stronger backward looking population growth takes some of the shine off recent GDP growth estimates when measured on a per-capita basis \u2013 per-capita GDP was up 0.7% year-over-year in the second quarter based on data released today compared to 1.7% based on previous estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is worth noting that GDP data is also revised regularly, including annual benchmark revisions expected in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if the government remains committed to its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/how-canadas-new-immigration-targets-will-impact-the-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-15199-dca686eb\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"5% target\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">5% target<\/a> for non-permanent residents as a share of the total population in next month\u2019s immigration levels plan, annual population growth should still turn negative in the coming quarters, with B.C. and Ontario to feeling the demographic adjustment most acutely given their heavier concentration of non-permanent residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Housing markets: potentially less demand growth in the outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The revisions also reset the timeline for housing market pressures. We now expect the period of most significant population deceleration to unfold ahead of us rather than behind us, which could extend downward pressure on housing markets\u2014particularly on the rental side where demand is most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/rent-retreat-canadian-tenants-catch-a-break\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-15199-dca686eb\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"sensitive\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">sensitive<\/a> to immigrant and non-permanent resident population movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Higher rate of breakeven employment growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rate of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/canadas-shifting-labour-market-recalibrating-breakeven-employment\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-15199-dca686eb\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"breakeven employment\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">breakeven employment<\/a> growth (the number of new jobs needed each month to prevent the unemployment rate from rising) looks closer to zero than the -10k we were previously estimating based on prior population estimates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>But more reliable (and agnostic to population changes) measures of the economy\u2019s health are less impacted<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Critically, on the labour market side, a larger number of non-permanent residents staying in the country impacts the labour force and employment numbers simultaneously, which shouldn\u2019t significantly change unemployment rate estimates or forecasts \u2013 labour markets have still been improving on a per-worker basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the Bank of Canada\u2019s perspective as policymakers consider <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/boc-and-fed-to-hike-from-different-starting-points\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes-15199-fdfffe48\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-DataFlashes\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"interest rate hikes\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">interest rate hikes<\/a>, higher backward looking population growth estimates imply the economy\u2019s production potential was stronger than previously thought (all else qual, such as productivity estimates). But other real-time indicators of slack in the economy like business survey responses on excess capacity, the unemployment rate, and core inflation trends are all unimpacted by changes in population estimates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The BoC will be closely monitoring these indicators ahead of their next policy decision in October. On the surface, mechanical upward adjustments to potential GDP via revised population estimates, would reduce urgency to hike rates, but with the BoC increasingly focused on \u201crisks\u201d from energy prices it makes the October meeting a difficult decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Rachel Battaglia<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is an Economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[83,93],"tags":[115,11,128],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-15199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-data-flashes","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-population"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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