{"id":15196,"date":"2026-09-23T20:35:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T20:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=15196"},"modified":"2026-09-23T20:35:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T20:35:16","slug":"september-executive-briefing-what-to-watch-in-the-final-quarter-of-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/september-executive-briefing-what-to-watch-in-the-final-quarter-of-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"September Executive Briefing: What to watch in the final quarter of 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Don&#8217;t bet against the US economy&#8221; has been our core narrative this year: A resilient high-income consumer, solid labor market, generous fiscal spending, and an AI-powered investment boom boosting the world&#8217;s largest economy. But, sustained strength can also exact a price, and the end of summer came with three developments that showed how hard it is to stay in equilibrium.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list mar-b mob-mar-b-hlf\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>It\u2019s still true:<\/strong> <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/america-needs-workers-not-jobs\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-917f3fab\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"America needs workers, not jobs\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">America needs workers, not jobs<\/a><\/strong>. The unemployment rate started the summer at 4.3% and has fallen to 4.1% as job growth exceeded expectations. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/august-us-employment-report-show-me-the-weakness-i-dont-see-any\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-917f3fab\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"US is now averaging about 80,000 per month\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">US is now averaging about 80,000 per month<\/a> after adding only 10,000 jobs a month in 2025. That&#8217;s particularly strong given that our estimate of the break-even pace of employment has fallen to about 20,000 per month as a record number of retirements and slowdown in immigration mean the economy doesn&#8217;t need to create the same number of jobs as before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, layoffs are near all-time lows, job openings continue to grow faster than the civilian labor force, and workers recently laid off have a nearly 40% likelihood of re-employment within five weeks. This is generally good news for the consumer, but tight labor markets of this degree can also mean labor availability becomes more challenged\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/how-to-monitor-the-persistent-tightness-in-the-us-labor-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-917f3fab\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"something to watch for\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">something to watch for<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Inflation is moving in the wrong direction<\/strong>, and it&#8217;s not just an energy story. More than half of the components of the Consumer Price Index are running above 3%. There is indeed breadth of inflation within indicators, but also across indicators: ISM and Producer Price Index data confirm <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-august-cpi-inflation-is-moving-in-the-wrong-direction\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-917f3fab\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"the inflation pipeline is heating up\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">the inflation pipeline is heating up<\/a>, not cooling down. Goods prices are still at risk with tariffs very much still in play, and there\u2019s evidence of high energy prices spilling into airline fares and other sectors. Freight costs, in particular, have spiked, adding more risk that goods prices will be pushed higher.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years<\/strong>, clearly not in an attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz and bring down energy prices, but to attempt to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-rbc-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stem any potential bleeding from high energy prices into broader prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tamp down lightly on demand-driven inflation, some of which is still in play.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf wp-block-paragraph\">We expect another two hikes from the Fed this year, which won&#8217;t be enough to shift our outlook for the US economy, but warrants some monitoring of lower-income consumers and interest-rate sensitive inflation. See our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/fomc-recap-tightening-into-an-inflationary-supply-shock\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-917f3fab\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"list of what to watch\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">list of what to watch<\/a> as the Fed tightens.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"video-wpr\"><video class=\"video-player video-js\" poster=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Horizontal-Thumbnail.png\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/English-version-Horizontal_3.mp4\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-a1354b31\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"video play\" data-dig-label=\"English-version-Horizontal_3.mp4\"><p class=\"vjs-no-js\">To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href=\"http:\/\/videojs.com\/html5-video-support\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p><track kind=\"captions\" src=\"\" srclang=\"en\" label=\"English\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-what-s-on-the-radar-heading-into-2027\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">What\u2019s on the radar heading into 2027<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tight labor market, hot inflation, and a hiking Fed might lend itself to the idea that the US is &#8220;overheating.&#8221; But that&#8217;s not quite how we see it, at least not yet. Inflation is strong, but largely supply driven. Growth has been strong, but reliant on non-residential capital expenditure (i.e. AI investment). Meanwhile, there have been some early indications of minor stress in the consumer credit space. Indeed, what we see now is more consistent with a &#8220;warm&#8221; economy. However, whether the US tips into overheating or cools from current levels may come down to three themes ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The AI spending bet.<\/strong> There&#8217;s no doubt the bullish US economic view is firmly relying on AI investment and has for a while. Nonresidential investment has consistently added to GDP growth since 2021, driven largely by structures (i.e., data center construction), and equipment spending tied to the data center buildout (i.e., IT and electrical equipment). We calculate that without the AI investment boost, US GDP growth would have run about half as fast in 2026 \u2013 under 1.0% in the first half. But, public opposition and government restrictions are growing, which begs the question: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/data-center-boom-continues-to-drive-durable-orders\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US-15196-917f3fab\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.Analysis-FeaturedAnalysis-US\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Can AI spending maintain momentum?\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Can AI spending maintain momentum?<\/a> It&#8217;s a risk that weighs more heavily on our minds than a few more rate hikes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The consumer credit crack.<\/strong> Put bluntly, US households are saving less and borrowing more to sustain spending. Real wages have been trending negative for consumers since April (particularly low and middle-income households). Revolving and non-revolving loans are rising. Non-mortgage personal interest payments now consume 2.5% of disposable income\u2014alarmingly close to the 2.8% threshold that preceded the three pre-COVID recessions. Commercial bank loan delinquencies sit at 2.6% with credit cards at 2.9%, and there\u2019s been a recent spike in 120-plus days late delinquencies. It\u2019s still our take that the K-shaped economy is in effect: High income consumers are driving US consumption, are less impacted by inflation, and continue to see strong growth in non-labor income. But, there&#8217;s enough building strain for lower-income buckets that\u2019s worth monitoring for a trigger to a broader slowdown in consumer spending.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The retiree wildcard<\/strong>. Social Security benefits now support over 57 million beneficiaries, and unlike wage growth, Social Security benefits are inflation adjusted (using Q3 2026 CPI-W data). Here lies a deep divide in America: Retirees will see a segment of their income boosted by an expected 2027 COLA of 3.5%, while workers aren&#8217;t likely to see wage growth at that level. If inflation cools in 2027 while elevated transfer payments persist, COLAs could become a source of demand-driven inflation pressure, creating an unusual dynamic where benefits meant to support retirees fuel broader price increases. Don\u2019t forget, the labor force is shrinking. Nearly 20% of US income comes from government transfers, and 22% of spending is on healthcare.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h2 id=\"h-growth-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-underline-left has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">Growth outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-qtr wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view: <\/strong>TheUS economy\u2019s resilience continues with underlying growth slightly above the 2% trend, though diverging trends persist underneath. AI continues to drive the entirety of the business investment story: Spending on information processing equipment and data center infrastructure has surged, while capex outside of the AI remains exceptionally weak. For consumers, there are signs that buffers in Middle America are developing cracks worth monitoring. With energy prices surging once again, we view risks to the economy as roughly balanced with downside surprises still possible should energy inflation bleed through beyond headline price growth, while upside surprises are still possible from productivity and the AI investment boom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ab45f8a400d1&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ab45f8a400d1\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full mar-t mar-b-dbl wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1325\" height=\"1835\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-GDP-Sept-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - US GDP - Sept 2026\" class=\"wp-image-15226\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-GDP-Sept-2026.png 1325w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-GDP-Sept-2026.png?resize=217,300 217w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-GDP-Sept-2026.png?resize=768,1064 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-GDP-Sept-2026.png?resize=739,1024 739w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-GDP-Sept-2026.png?resize=1109,1536 1109w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1325px) 100vw, 1325px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-inflation-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-underline-left has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3\">Inflation outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"mar-t-hlf mob-mar-t-qtr wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view:<\/strong> Inflationary pressures remain broad and persistent with energy prices reaccelerating and tariff pressure still in play. Importantly, the Fed returning from the sidelines doesn\u2019t guarantee supply-driven inflation will be tamed. We also acknowledge that any additional hikes may produce undesirable side effects for lower and middle-income consumers. Traditionally, hikes would work to protect against a demand-driven inflation spike. If inflation cools while we get inflation-adjusted 2027 Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA) for Social Security income, the benefits meant to support retirees could fuel broader price increases. The same can be said for soaring equity valuations that continue to support the wealthiest households\u2014who account for the bulk of consumer demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ab45f8a41278&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ab45f8a41278\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full mar-t mar-b-dbl wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1325\" height=\"1670\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-CPI-Sept-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - US CPI - Sept 2026\" class=\"wp-image-15227\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-CPI-Sept-2026.png 1325w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-CPI-Sept-2026.png?resize=238,300 238w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-CPI-Sept-2026.png?resize=768,968 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-CPI-Sept-2026.png?resize=812,1024 812w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-CPI-Sept-2026.png?resize=1219,1536 1219w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1325px) 100vw, 1325px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-labor-market-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-underline-left has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4\">Labor market outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<p class=\"is-style-default default mar-b-hlf mob-mar-b-qtr wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view: <\/strong>We continue to expect structural factors will keep the US labor market very tight. Monthly job creation has significantly outpaced expectations in recent months\u2014especially with an exceptionally low breakeven employment number. But, the backdrop remains mixed. Employment in some white-collar sectors continues to decline, contributing to a skill-matching problem facing recent graduates. The unemployment rate gives us a better gauge of labor market tightness over payroll growth, and it remains exceptionally low at 4.1%. Record retirements have helped keep a lid on the unemployment rate, but if we see a reversal of this trend, re-entrants could drive a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. For now, the low level of WARN notices and historically low jobless claims suggest currently there isn\u2019t a significant risk of an increase in layoffs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ab45f8a42126&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ab45f8a42126\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full mar-t mar-b-dbl wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1325\" height=\"1738\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Unemployment-Sept-2026.png\" alt=\"RBC Economics - US Unemployment - Sept 2026\" class=\"wp-image-15228\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Unemployment-Sept-2026.png 1325w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Unemployment-Sept-2026.png?resize=229,300 229w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Unemployment-Sept-2026.png?resize=768,1007 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Unemployment-Sept-2026.png?resize=781,1024 781w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Unemployment-Sept-2026.png?resize=1171,1536 1171w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1325px) 100vw, 1325px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Frances Donald<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at RBC and oversees a team of leading professionals, who deliver economic analyses and insights to inform RBC clients around the globe. Frances is a key expert on economic issues and is highly sought after by clients, government leaders, policy makers, and media in the US and Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[94,81],"tags":[11,103,65,135,58,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-15196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-featured-analysis","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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