{"id":1486,"date":"2022-03-07T14:20:27","date_gmt":"2022-03-07T14:20:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/2022\/03\/07\/a-turning-point-more-sellers-enter-canadas-housing-market-in-february\/"},"modified":"2022-03-07T14:20:27","modified_gmt":"2022-03-07T14:20:27","slug":"a-turning-point-more-sellers-enter-canadas-housing-market-in-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/local-real-estate-markets\/a-turning-point-more-sellers-enter-canadas-housing-market-in-february\/","title":{"rendered":"A turning point? More sellers enter Canada&#8217;s housing market in February"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One month doesn\u2019t make a trend but if February is any indication, more sellers may be (finally) making their way into Canada\u2019s housing market. Early results from local real estate boards showed notable month-to-month increases in new listings across major markets. This was especially the case in Calgary and Edmonton where a wave of properties put up for sale set the stage for the strongest number of transactions ever recorded in a February. Elsewhere, the impact on activity was generally positive albeit more muted. Buyers still face a dearth of supply, maintaining intense upward pressure on prices. Local real estate boards reported further price acceleration, led by the Fraser Valley, Toronto and Vancouver where property values made big leaps (again) from already sky-high levels in January. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-xH3t8Ms8TT\" class=\"everviz-xH3t8Ms8TT\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/xH3t8Ms8TT\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sellers will play a central role in shaping up this year\u2019s spring season. Should a critical mass of current homeowners see the coming months as an opportune window to list their property\u2014now that interest rates are on the rise and ahead of potential policy actions targeting speculators\u2014it would ease some of the supply restraints, both boosting near-term activity and reducing some of the pressure of prices. If instead the number of sellers doesn\u2019t pick up materially, recent price trends are likely to persist (until interest rates increase sufficiently to curb demand). We expect the next few months to tell much about the future direction of the market and prices.<\/p>\n<h4>Toronto area\u2014Prices continue to spike<\/h4>\n<p>Buyers dug still deeper into their purchasing budget to come up on top of bidding wars last month. Toronto\u2019s composite MLS Home Price Index jumped a mind-blowing 6.4% from January. That\u2019s an increase of more than $80,000 in a single month! What\u2019s more, it came on the heels of a series of material gains over the past several months (including a $52,000 jump in January) that drove the index up $354,000 (or 35.9%) since February 2021. At $1.34 million, Toronto\u2019s benchmark price is the priciest in Canada\u2014having surpassed the Vancouver benchmark in January. Despite crushingly poor affordability, demand remains exceptionally brisk at this stage. Buyers pounced on a larger offering of homes for sale in February, causing resales to climb 5.9% from January (on a seasonally-adjusted basis). This made it the second-busiest February on record (behind only February 2021). We expect higher interest rates will cool down demand in the area over time. The Toronto area\u2019s sky-high price points and strong presence of investors make the market especially sensitive to rising interest rates. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-WJRnyenpV\" class=\"everviz-WJRnyenpV\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/WJRnyenpV\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Montreal area\u2014A slowing trend emerges<\/h4>\n<p>The last few months have seen activity moderate in the Montreal area. This partly reflected dwindling supply though demand may have softened as well in the face of deteriorating affordability. A small increase in new listings between January and February was met by a slight monthly decline in resales (on a seasonally-adjusted basis), suggesting some potential buyer fatigue. Demand-supply conditions have eased slightly as a result though remain extremely tight at this time. Significant upward pressure continues to drive up prices for both single-detached homes and condos. Some of the stronger gains are recorded in the suburbs where relatively more affordable properties are the subject of aggressive bidding on the part of buyers. Prices in Laval and the North Shore, in particular, are up significantly. With suburban prices still running at 16% to 30% discounts to Island prices, we expect these dynamics to continue in the near term.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz--o2BAUtXi\" class=\"everviz--o2BAUtXi\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/-o2BAUtXi\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Vancouver area\u2014A step toward market balance<\/h4>\n<p>Activity slowed despite more homes being offered for sale last month. Our estimated 6% drop in resales and 12% rise in new listings from January (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) could represent a welcome first step toward more balanced demand-supply conditions in the Vancouver area. We\u2019re still a long way from prices stabilizing though. Still-solid demand and historically low inventories for now keep the heat on property values and will likely continue to do so in the near term. Vancouver\u2019s composite MLS HPI last month rose an outsized 4.6% (or more than $58,000) from January to $1.31 million. The gain over the past year is now an astounding $226,000, or 20.8%. Buyers clearly face an extremely challenging situation. Higher interest rates will make things even more difficult for many, further crushing affordability in the period ahead. We expect this will gradually suppress demand later this year and contribute to the market rebalancing.<\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-mnn5us1Dv\" class=\"everviz-mnn5us1Dv\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/mnn5us1Dv\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<h4>Calgary\u2014An upswing for the ages<\/h4>\n<p>Calgary (and Edmonton) really stood out in February among Canada\u2019s major markets. Resales continued to boom, soaring another estimated 19% m\/m on the heels of gains of 10%, 9% and 15% in the previous three months, respectively. The 3,300 transactions recorded last month were the strongest tally ever for a February in Calgary. A surge in new listings (up an estimated 69% m\/m) made this possible. It provided many buyers the options they had been seeking for some time amid shrinking inventories. These new buying opportunities came at a steeper price though.  Calgary\u2019s composite MLS HPI soared 5.9% ($27,000) between January and February, pushing up the y\/y rate of appreciation to a 15-year high of 16.1%. The wave of homes listed for sale helped temper the (severe) supply shortage but did not eliminate it. Calgary\u2019s market is still very tight and upward price pressure remains intense. We expect further material appreciation in the near term, especially as a booming energy sector stokes buyer confidence. <\/p>\n<div id=\"everviz-P5jzpy4o_\" class=\"everviz-P5jzpy4o_\"><script src=\"https:\/\/app.everviz.com\/inject\/P5jzpy4o_\/\" defer=\"defer\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-callout-white\" style=\"border: 1px solid #c4c8cc;\">\n<div class=\"rds-gcw\">\n<div style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\" class=\"img w-mob-100\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/03\/econ-download-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"261\" height=\"177\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30186\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rds-inline pad-hlf\" style=\"display:inline-block; vertical-align: top;\">\n<h4 class=\"mar-t\">See Report PDF<\/h4>\n<p><a class=\"btn tertiary\" role=\"button\" href=\"https:\/\/royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com\/v\/a-turning-point-more-sellers-enter-canadas-housing-market-in-february\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-dig-id=\"TNL_211104\" data-dig-category=\"TNL Economics\" data-dig-action=\"mid-funnel click\" data-dig-label=\"Housing Special 210826\">Download<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sellers will play a central role in shaping up this year\u2019s spring season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":1484,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,38,88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-canadian-housing","category-local-real-estate-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.2 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A turning point? 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