{"id":14521,"date":"2026-09-08T19:27:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T19:27:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=14521"},"modified":"2026-09-08T19:27:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T19:27:31","slug":"canadas-housing-markets-show-persistent-regional-splits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/local-real-estate-markets\/canadas-housing-markets-show-persistent-regional-splits\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s housing markets show persistent regional splits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Diverging regional trends continued for Canada’s housing markets in August. Ontario markets showed mixed momentum, with Toronto’s recovery faltering amid escalating trade<\/a> uncertainty, while Ottawa continued its improvement with prices edging above year-ago levels for the first time since November 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

British Columbia remains the weakest region. Vancouver and the Fraser Valley continue experiencing price declines, albeit at a slower pace. Montreal faces persistent affordability challenges, though expanding inventory may help ease conditions as tightening occurs elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calgary and Edmonton are cooling as well, but relative strength from population growth should provide some support to demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This uneven regional performance reflects how trade policy uncertainty, declining populations, and structural supply dynamics play out differently across regions. Confidence remains fragile and unevenly distributed, with stimulative measures and accumulated demand providing some offset to broader headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect the uneven recovery to persist through year-end as regional affordability gaps and structural dynamics evolve at different speeds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Toronto area: Two steps back as resales and prices fall<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Toronto’s housing market has hit a bump in its tentative recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resales fell 1.3% seasonally adjusted in August \u2014snapping an upward streak building since March. We think the pullback could reflect renewed angst amid the trade war escalation, though stimulative fiscal policy, the new housing rebate, and pent up demand<\/a> should offer some counterweight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Price momentum also faltered with the benchmark HPI falling in August from July after a series of monthly increases. This isn\u2019t out of step with our expectations for a bumpy recovery with near-term momentum hanging on how disruptive trade policy will be for confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Active listings continue to pewter out on the supply side, and keep a floor under prices. New listings are still down 14% year-over-year in August\u2014a larger decline than the 2.1% y\/y pullback in sales. Depressed housing starts\u2014particularly among condos, which contracted sharply over the past two years\u2014should continue to tighten supply structurally in coming quarters and help bring the market into better alignment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Montreal area: Sellers step up<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Sellers continued to emerge in Montreal in August with new listings climbing an estimated 7.1% seasonally adjusted from July. This extends a pattern of gradually improving supply throughout 2026, as inventory eases from earlier tight constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, demand remains subdued. Resales have fluctuated in recent months broadly pointing downward. August saw a temporary lift with resales rising an estimated 4.5% seasonally adjusted from July, but transactions continue to trail year-ago levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poor affordability appears to be the primary headwind suppressing resales, with our measure<\/a> still hovering near an all-time worst. But as inventory continues to build from the earlier supply crunch, we anticipate affordability pressures will begin to ease, strengthening buyer demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver area: Sales increase doesn\u2019t negate struggles<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver’s four-year housing slump showed signs of life in August, bucking weakness seen across other major markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We estimate resales rose 8.5% seasonally adjusted from July, more than reversing a 4.5% decline the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The uptick came alongside a sharp increase in new listings rising 12% m\/m. This influx of supply pushed the sales-to-new listings ratio back into buyer-friendly territory after tightening marginally earlier in the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices\u2014albeit still falling\u2014show tentative signs of stabilization with the rate of decline slowing. But, further depreciation may be needed to unlock pent-up demand and keep resales growing on a sustained basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vancouver\u2019s housing market remains the weakest among Canada\u2019s six largest markets\u2014a ranking we expect to hold through year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Calgary: Cools further as sales slip<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Calgary’s real estate market retreated in August with resales slipping more than 9% seasonally adjusted from July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decline erased earlier summer gains, returning resales to spring levels and inching closer to its 10-year average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Condos continue to absorb most pressure with weak demand keeping prices a solid 8% below a year ago. Detached homes have held up considerably better, declining just 1.1% annually\u2014in line with Calgary\u2019s total MLS HPI benchmark decline\u2014placing it in the middle of Canada’s six largest markets for price deterioration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sellers continue to flow into the market. New listings rose 1.4% seasonally adjusted in August, maintaining historically high inventory. The increase in new listings is modest, but with weak demand, the sales-to-new listings ratio hit 0.52\u2014the lowest point since the pandemic. Still, the ratio remains in balanced market territory, which may limit sellers’ need to make aggressive price concessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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Download the report<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rachel Battaglia<\/strong> is an Economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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