{"id":14460,"date":"2026-09-04T16:40:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T16:40:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=14460"},"modified":"2026-09-04T16:40:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T16:40:56","slug":"cpi-can-make-or-break-the-feds-holding-pattern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/cpi-can-make-or-break-the-feds-holding-pattern\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI can make or break the Fed\u2019s holding pattern"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">All eyes will be focused on inflation next week. <strong>We look for the August energy price re-acceleration to drive headline CPI higher \u2013 up +0.4% m\/m \u2013 holding the year-over-year pace steady at 3.4%. We expect to see core CPI rose +0.24% m\/m in August, nudging the year-over-year pace down to 2.4%.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Focusing on August, core goods inflation is unlikely to be problematic. July\u2019s month-over-month spike in computers, peripherals, and smartphones was likely a one-off in response to a one-time Apple price hike. And new car prices have remained mostly flat this year despite tariffs, which we expect will continue in August. But the Manheim Used Motor Vehicle Value index suggests used cars are set to rise. Tariffs have had a meaningful impact on auto parts, a key input in the used car market, and this is also spilling over to maintenance and repair services. We expect core services will continue to be sticky (we look for a rise of 0.26% m\/m). Problematically, we think housing disinflation is likely approaching its floor this year. Alongside sticky housing, the continued spike in jet fuel prices will drive airfares higher, pushing up transportation services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the months ahead, inflation should remain the Fed\u2019s primary concern as many recent speakers have shifted towards a more hawkish stance and rightly so. The combination of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/new-developments-in-u-s-canada-trade-war-the-impact-on-both-economies\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-14460-74d17c2d\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"tariffs\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">tariffs<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/the-energy-shock-isnt-likely-to-trigger-a-us-recession-in-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-14460-74d17c2d\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"energy prices\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">energy prices<\/a>, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/august-us-employment-report-show-me-the-weakness-i-dont-see-any\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-14460-74d17c2d\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"tight labor market\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">tight labor market<\/a> all point to pressures that are heading in the wrong direction. Consumer perceptions of inflation expectations remain elevated as evidenced by the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys, both of which worsened in August. Concerningly, around half of the CPI basket is reporting price growth at-or-above 3% y\/y. For now, energy has not bled into core inflation that much. But the problem is that there is no guarantee that this containment persists \u2013 a concerningly high share of businesses are reporting increases in prices paid in both the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services surveys. And PPI remains elevated at 4.7% y\/y, with the risk that energy pushes that pace higher in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"h-leading-indicators-for-housing-suggest-limited-disinflation\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-xs-font-size\">Leading indicators for housing suggest limited disinflation<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a9d3227876dc&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a9d3227876dc\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"600\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/866015b6ddd040c6925457e13df581a7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14516\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/866015b6ddd040c6925457e13df581a7.png 700w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/866015b6ddd040c6925457e13df581a7.png?resize=300,257 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"h-ism-surveys-flag-input-cost-pressures-for-ppi\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-major-xs-font-size\">ISM surveys flag input cost pressures for PPI<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a9d322788592&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a9d322788592\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"600\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/2fc747d78faf4cf780ac71877d2aab7a.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14511\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/2fc747d78faf4cf780ac71877d2aab7a.png 700w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/2fc747d78faf4cf780ac71877d2aab7a.png?resize=300,257 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>We also get PPI next week, another inflation metric that is concerning. The pace of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/the-us-producer-price-index-an-early-warning-system-for-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-14460-74d17c2d\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"headline PPI\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">headline PPI<\/a> is set to re-accelerate (+0.4% m\/m) on oil, and core PPI will likely move sideways at +0.2% m\/m. <\/strong>Within the PPI report, we will be watching finished core consumer goods for signs of impending pressures in core goods CPI. We continue to watch trade services as an indicator of producer margins. To date, we have not seen persistently negative trade services PPI prints, which suggests that for the most part, firms have been able to pass off higher input costs to consumers. This adds conviction to our view that if energy and tariff pressures are passed through, the path of core inflation will stall and risk a re-acceleration. That would be a trend the Fed can\u2019t look through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a9d32278908d&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a9d32278908d\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5173\" height=\"2440\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14519\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png 5173w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png?resize=300,142 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png?resize=768,362 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png?resize=1024,483 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png?resize=1536,725 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/RBC-Economics-US-Week-Ahead-Sept-4-2026.png?resize=2048,966 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5173px) 100vw, 5173px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":318,"featured_media":12503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,103,65,135,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-14460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-jobs","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast 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