{"id":14428,"date":"2026-09-03T14:45:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T14:45:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=14428"},"modified":"2026-09-03T14:45:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T14:45:20","slug":"canadian-trade-surplus-narrows-in-july-on-lower-gold-and-energy-shipments-higher-motor-vehicle-imports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadian-trade-surplus-narrows-in-july-on-lower-gold-and-energy-shipments-higher-motor-vehicle-imports\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian trade surplus narrows in July on lower gold and energy shipments, higher motor vehicle imports"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-the-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c75936e627370431cdc0e4879696a373\">The Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Bottom Line:<\/strong><br>Canada&#8217;s merchandise trade surplus narrowed significantly to $769 million in July from $4.2 billion in June (revised upward from $3.9B), as exports fell 2.3% while imports rose 2.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The drop in exports was the first in six months and was led by lower exports of metal and non-metallic minerals (mostly unwrought gold) compounded by lower energy exports (-4.4%), with crude oil shipments (-5.6%) falling on lower prices and volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Imports posted their largest increase since February 2026, largely reflecting record-high motor vehicle and parts imports (+11.4%), boosted partly by fewer maintenance-related work stoppages in July than typical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monthly trade data is highly volatile and revision prone, but the pullback in the trade surplus in July reinforces that at least part of a large add to GDP growth in Q2 from net trade will be reversed in Q3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And section 338 tariffs implemented in August will further erode U.S. demand for Canadian goods. Still, those measures, while significantly damaging for targeted sectors and industries, impact a small share of the total economy (0.4% of GDP and jobs), and roughly 5% of Canadian exports to the U.S. And more than 80% of Canadian exports to the U.S. duty free are expected to remain duty free. Similarly, Canadian retaliatory tariffs are also expected to impact a small 3% of total imports, with scope to substitute to alternative products to avoid paying higher costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data to-date is broadly consistent with our expectation that the Canadian economy will not repeat the strong pace of growth in Q2, but we expect further gradual improvement despite a still highly uncertain international trade backdrop. Still, the balance of risks to near-term growth rates are tilted to the downside with the potential of further escalation in Canada-U.S. trade relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-the-details\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-30f57298bbf8ead15134d747597f5622\">The details:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian merchandise trade narrowed in July, though it marked the fifth consecutive surplus, falling to $769 million from an upwardly revised $4.2 billion (previously $3.9 billion) level in June.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The significant narrowing in the July trade surplus was led by lower exports (-2.3%), mainly of precious metals (gold), and energy. Higher motor vehicle and parts imports largely drove the increase in imports (+2.2%).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Excluding price impacts, export volumes fell 2.2% while import volumes rose 2.7% in July. The rise in import volumes marked the first increase since February 2026.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s trade surplus with the United States totaled $5.9 billion in July, compared with $10.3 billion in June. Exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 6.6% while imports rose 1.8%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trade with countries outside the United States reached a record high $25.6B, with exports rising for a third consecutive month, up 7.4% from June (up nearly 50% year-over-year) and imports rising 2.8%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Separately reported U.S. data showed the average effective tariff rate on Canadian goods was little changed from June at approximately 2.8% in July. The share of exports crossing the border duty free remained at close to 86%, largely due to exemptions for duty free trade under CUSMA.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a99afa149dda&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a99afa149dda\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"7954\" height=\"11032\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png 7954w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png?resize=216,300 216w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png?resize=768,1065 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png?resize=738,1024 738w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png?resize=1107,1536 1107w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/Sept-Trade-table.png?resize=1477,2048 1477w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 7954px) 100vw, 7954px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the Author<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Salim Zanzana<\/strong><em>\u00a0is an economist at RBC. He focuses on emerging macroeconomic issues, ranging from trends in the labour market to shifts in the longer-term structural growth of Canada and other global economies.<\/em><\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":354,"featured_media":6867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[83,93],"tags":[115,11,24],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-14428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-analysis","category-data-flashes","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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