{"id":13828,"date":"2026-08-14T14:10:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T14:10:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13828"},"modified":"2026-08-17T18:27:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T18:27:12","slug":"still-no-cracks-in-the-foundation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-week-ahead\/still-no-cracks-in-the-foundation\/","title":{"rendered":"Still no cracks in the foundation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-l-hlf mob-pad-l-hlf pad-r-hlf mob-pad-r-hlf has-rbc-bright-blue-tint-4-background-color has-background is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-c94bf079 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-radius:5px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column pad-b-hlf mob-pad-b-hlf pad-t-hlf mob-pad-t-hlf is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:98%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center mar-l-hlf pad-l-hlf\" style=\"grid-template-columns:22% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1767\" height=\"1632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?quality=80&amp;w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6212 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png 1767w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=300,277 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=768,709 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1024,946 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2025\/12\/Icon-calend-dec-19-25.png?resize=1536,1419 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1767px) 100vw, 1767px\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"Intro\">Next week will be a quiet week on the data front, giving markets and economists time to digest a full week of tier-one releases. Housing starts, industrial production, and the Conference Board&#8217;s Leading Index round out the calendar\u2014with housing and production telling very different stories about the state of the US economy.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First up: housing starts and building permits will give us an indication of whether <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-housing-market-the-deep-freeze-continues\/#section-content-39950f7e\">t<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/us-housing-market-the-deep-freeze-continues\/#section-content-39950f7e\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-13828-e6fe8b96\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">he US housing market slog<\/a> continues\u2014which we expect will be the case. Both 30-year fixed and 5-year adjustable mortgage rates rose between Q1 and Q2, and mortgage loan applications have trended lower as a result. Building permit issuance has softened alongside housing demand, and since permits lead starts, we expect limited growth prospects for housing starts in the coming months. The housing sector remains sidelined by rates, and next week&#8217;s data is unlikely to change that narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other end of the spectrum<strong>, industrial production is expected to ramp up materially (+0.5% m\/m) <\/strong>after the ISM manufacturing production index posted an outsized expansion\u2014its highest reading in nearly five years. Tariffs have done little to hamper production even as input cost pressures materialize. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-july-cpi-reassuring-on-the-surface-yellow-flags-beneath\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-13828-e6fe8b96\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"July CPI data \" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">July CPI data <\/a>showed that Section 232 tariffs are increasing motor vehicle parts and equipment prices, with spillovers into motor vehicle maintenance and repair. And prices for computers, peripherals, and smartphones have risen after PPI for electronic components skyrocketed since the beginning of the year. But these cost pressures have not translated into meaningful demand destruction\u2014despite a decline in July, real retail sales have still risen notably (~2%) from the beginning of the year and production continues to expand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the tariff front, the backdrop remains largely status quo. Section 338 tariffs on Canada are planned to take effect on August 19th but won&#8217;t meaningfully alter the landscape\u2014by our count, they add roughly 0.3 percentage points to the average tariff rate, as the 50% levy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/solid-canadian-growth-meets-narrow-tariff-headwinds\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead-13828-e6fe8b96\" data-dig-category=\"LP-U.S.WeekAhead\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">affects only about 0.5% of total global imports<\/a>. And the recently introduced Section 301 tariffs replacing Section 122 should, if anything, leave tariffs on balance lower rather than higher. Core goods inflation appears to be resurfacing in July, but with consumer demand intact and production accelerating, we expect the Conference Board&#8217;s Leading Economic Index will continue to point to expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a84df6277c1a&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a84df6277c1a\" class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"763\" height=\"661\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" 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width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a84df62788f8&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a84df62788f8\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"5173\" height=\"2207\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13859\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png 5173w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png?resize=300,128 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png?resize=768,328 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png?resize=1024,437 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png?resize=1536,655 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/Table4.png?resize=2048,874 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 5173px) 100vw, 5173px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an <em>US<\/em><\/em> <em>Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":345,"featured_media":12094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[86],"tags":[11,17,74,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-13828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-week-ahead","tag-economy","tag-housing","tag-mortgage","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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