{"id":13710,"date":"2026-08-12T14:19:59","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T14:19:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13710"},"modified":"2026-08-12T16:22:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T16:22:04","slug":"us-july-cpi-reassuring-on-the-surface-yellow-flags-beneath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-data-flashes\/us-july-cpi-reassuring-on-the-surface-yellow-flags-beneath\/","title":{"rendered":"US July CPI: Reassuring on the surface, yellow flags beneath"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-bottom-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2434fd22297845b057596637ae73caa1\">Bottom Line:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning\u2019s CPI print was a make-it-or-break-it print ahead of the Fed\u2019s September meeting and <strong>at +0.2% (knocking the y\/y pace down to 2.5%), we expect core inflation will preserve Fed optionality<\/strong>. Still, the details perhaps tell a slightly less reassuring narrative beneath the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core inflation was not exclusively a services story in July as core goods also re-accelerated. Of course, part of this was a computer and peripherals\/smartphones story after Apple raised prices at the end of June. Still, Section 232 tariffs are weighing on the auto sector with higher motor vehicle parts and equipment prices spilling over into motor vehicle maintenance and repair, so this is not likely a one-off. Higher input costs are clearly weighing on goods inflation, and this will be a persistent pressure this year. At the same time, services remained sticky as rents and OER were elevated in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The good news is that a decelerating breadth of inflation since earlier this year and lower supercore continue to illustrate continued improvement this year. <strong>Headline\u2019s annual pace of inflation also moderated, to 3.4% from 3.5%, but this improvement was more than accounted for by reductions in prices for energy commodities ( -2.9% m\/m)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, the July inflation report was mixed. On first glance, the print is reassuring, but beneath the surface, product-specific pressures are yellow flags for the trajectory of core goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are three core themes that stood out in today\u2019s report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-b89f0bdb0b4b2631e3d32f1e6d7aeeef wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1) In July, core inflation was no longer exclusively a services story<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core goods CPI previously ran flat to negative for three consecutive months, but in July, core goods rose +0.2% m\/m.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pressures were pronounced in trade-exposed sectors affected by Section 232 tariffs including motor vehicle parts and equipment (+0.6% m\/m), used cars and trucks (+0.4% m\/m), and recreation commodities (+0.6% m\/m). And we are now seeing spillovers from higher input costs into some services sectors like motor vehicle maintenance and repair (+0.6% m\/m).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And computers, peripherals, and smart home assistants rose a whopping +3.5% m\/m alongside a surge in prices for smartphones (+1.1%). &nbsp;This is unsurprising given that Apple announced price increases on June 25th, and we saw spikes in computers, peripherals, and smart home assistant devices and smartphones. This is likely a direct reflection of higher input prices as seen in PPI.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1f10225d6e9bcaf5b759f1e25b9859ef wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>2) <strong>But core services remained sticky \u2013 and relief in shelter has yet to arrive<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core services remained sticky at +0.23%.&nbsp; Both rent of primary residence and OER accelerated (+0.26% m\/m)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, we saw a meaningful retreat in lodging away from home as the World Cup wound down.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We continue to expect that cooler rents and home prices will flow through to housing with a lag. We expect that the most meaningful deceleration will be felt later this year and into 2027. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aside from housing, public transportation exerted upward pressure on core services as well in July, with airfares up a whopping +2.2% m\/m despite a continued improvement in energy prices.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the long term, we remain concerned that sticky wage growth will limit core services disinflation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-rbc-bright-blue-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-d5d629c578373c5b8bfcc86756f29853 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3)<\/strong> <strong><strong>Still\u2026the July inflation print should be sufficient to preserve Fed optionality<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite less-than-reassuring details on the core goods front, the July data illustrates that core inflation has been cooling meaningfully since the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Importantly, the year-over-year pace of supercore inflation continued to decelerate in July and has fallen by 0.9 percentage points in two months (now at 2.8%). Still, the month-over-month pace rebounded (to +0.2% in July) after registering negative in June.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The breadth of CPI accelerated relative to one-month ago but remains in-line with pre-COVID levels and well-below levels seen earlier this year. Currently, 36% of CPI basket items (ex shelter) are reporting price-growth at or above 3%. We have seen this diffusion index moderate meaningfully this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to RBC Rates Strategy, a core inflation print at +0.22% should be \u201cenough to keep staving off a hike\u201d after flagging +0.25% as the make-or-break line for a hold\/hike in September. In this context, we expect that this morning\u2019s print will preserve Fed optionality. But it does not guarantee a path to 2% either.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a7d200558599&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a7d200558599\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"985\" height=\"656\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/24493770b6e248f2be362b41c2437a77.png\" 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12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a7d200558c85&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a7d200558c85\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1788\" height=\"1200\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/US-CHRT-EDITOR_enhanced-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13729\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.4900009949258781;width:979px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/US-CHRT-EDITOR_enhanced-1.png 1788w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/US-CHRT-EDITOR_enhanced-1.png?resize=300,201 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/US-CHRT-EDITOR_enhanced-1.png?resize=768,515 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/US-CHRT-EDITOR_enhanced-1.png?resize=1024,687 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/US-CHRT-EDITOR_enhanced-1.png?resize=1536,1031 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1788px) 100vw, 1788px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is Head of US Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><em><strong>Carrie Freestone<\/strong>&nbsp;is a Senior US Economist at RBC. She is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s US economic forecasts across GDP, employment, and inflation, and providing macro commentary through publications, presentations, and the media.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Imri Haggin<\/strong>&nbsp;is an US Economist at RBC, where he focuses on thematic research. His prior work has centered on consumer credit dynamics and treasury modeling, with an emphasis on leveraging data to understand behavior.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":345,"featured_media":13717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[85,81],"tags":[11,118,65,110],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-13710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-data-flashes","category-us-analysis","tag-economy","tag-fed","tag-inflation","tag-u-s"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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