{"id":13576,"date":"2026-08-07T16:12:02","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T16:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13576"},"modified":"2026-08-07T18:36:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T18:36:03","slug":"canadas-growth-momentum-likely-persisted-near-the-end-of-q2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/canadas-growth-momentum-likely-persisted-near-the-end-of-q2\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s growth momentum likely persisted near the end of Q2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For the week of August 10<sup>th<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales data for June next Friday should reveal readings consistent with more real gross domestic product growth in June, capping off a solid Q2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The advance manufacturing report pointed to a 0.1% decline in nominal sales in June, but this largely reflected lower petroleum prices. Sales excluding petroleum and coal products rose 2.2%, and sales excluding price effects likely expanded as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wholesale sales are estimated by Statistics Canada to have risen 2.7% following soft readings in April and May, with growth driven by stronger sales in machinery, equipment, and supplies\u2014mirroring a surge in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadian-trade-balance-held-in-surplus-for-fourth-straight-month\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ForwardGuidance-13576-4ffe2dff\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ForwardGuidance\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"equipment imports\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">equipment imports<\/a> from the U.S. in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Along with an earlier 0.4% increase in advance retail sales in June (despite lower gasoline prices) and another increase in home resales, these data suggest persistent growth momentum near the end of Q2 and that quarterly real GDP growth is likely well above our earlier tracking of 2.2% (annualized).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sustainability of Q2&#8217;s economic strength remains uncertain, with the path forward highly contingent on volatile U.S. trade policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, stronger backward-looking data is encouraging after softer readings over the winter. Coupled with subdued core inflation readings this year, it also means the Bank of Canada has more room to remain in data-watching mode while maintaining current interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"everviz-GoKvDodSz\" class=\"everviz-GoKvDodSz\" data-view=\"graph\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U.S. inflation key for near-term Fed decisions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">South of the border, the Federal Reserve is facing a more challenging and less balanced trade-off between growth and inflation. U.S. growth and labour markets have remained exceptionally resilient, but inflation remains worryingly high, raising the odds for the Fed to hike interest rates. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">July\u2019s Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday could be key to that decision. A lower surprise reading in June CPI\u2019s growth was a reprieve policymakers needed to leave interest rates unchanged in July. But, one downside surprise doesn\u2019t erase a string of hotter core inflation prints earlier this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our base case forecast assumes price growth (outside of energy components) will remain slow enough this year to keep the Fed on the sidelines in September, and through the end of this year. We expect headline CPI will have eased to 3.3% in July from 3.5% in July, reflecting a moderation in core ex-food and gasoline CPI that we expect grew 0.2% month over month in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a7637ba52973&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a7637ba52973\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized mob-mar-t-hlf mar-t mar-b mob-mar-b-hlf wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2371\" height=\"2789\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13666\" style=\"width:818px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png 2371w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png?resize=255,300 255w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png?resize=768,903 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png?resize=871,1024 871w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png?resize=1306,1536 1306w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/08\/FG-CalendarAug7.png?resize=1741,2048 1741w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2371px) 100vw, 2371px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Nathan Janzen<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claire Fan<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is a Senior Economist at RBC. She focuses on macroeconomic analysis and is responsible for projecting key indicators including GDP, employment and inflation for Canada and the US.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<h4 id=\"h-explore-the-latest-from-rbc-economics\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Explore the latest from RBC Economics:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadas-unemployment-rate-edged-lower-in-june\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ForwardGuidance-13018-b2c20a20\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ForwardGuidance\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-label=\"Canada\u2019s unemployment rate edged lower in June \n\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Canada\u2019s unemployment rate edged lower in June <br><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/bank-of-canada-july-meeting-recap-steady-stance-and-forecast-revisions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ForwardGuidance-13018-6a053542\" data-dig-label=\"Bank of Canada July meeting recap: steady stance and forecast revisions \n\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ForwardGuidance\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Bank of Canada July meeting recap: steady stance and forecast revisions <br><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/canadas-housing-market-takes-another-small-step-towards-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ForwardGuidance-13576-4ffe2dff\" data-dig-label=\"Canada\u2019s housing market takes another small step towards recovery\" data-dig-action=\"link click\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ForwardGuidance\" class=\"rbc-link-format\">Canada\u2019s housing market takes another small step towards recovery<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns has-border-color has-grey-border-color is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9ba6dbca wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-width:1px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h4 id=\"h-share-these-insights-with-your-network\" class=\"wp-block-heading mar-t-dbl mar-l-dbl\"><strong>Share these insights with your network:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons mar-b-dbl mar-l-dbl is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\"><div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-primary primary btn before\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/economics-subscriber\/index.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ForwardGuidance-13576-2dc940a6\" data-dig-category=\"LP-CanadianAnalysis-ForwardGuidance\" data-dig-action=\"button click\" data-dig-label=\"Subscribe Here-https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/economics-subscriber\/index.html \">Subscribe Here<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":345,"featured_media":12094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[101],"tags":[115,11,114],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-13576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forward-guidance","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-forecast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.1 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - 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