{"id":13482,"date":"2026-07-31T15:53:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T15:53:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13482"},"modified":"2026-07-31T17:38:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T17:38:50","slug":"canadas-labour-market-expected-to-show-further-stabilization-into-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/canadas-labour-market-expected-to-show-further-stabilization-into-summer\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s labour market expected to show further stabilization into summer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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For the week of August 3rd <\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next Friday\u2019s labour market report for July in Canada is the first for Q3, and an important update on whether the gradual improvement seen in recent months is continuing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect jobs to increase by 5,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.5%. That would still leave the employment count down slightly in 2026, but would add to increases over May and June.  And, with population (and labour force growth) slowing, the unemployment rate holding at 6.5% (down from 6.9% in April, and lower 0.4% from a year ago) remains consistent with per-worker market conditions broadly improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent labour market indicators, including job postings, have changed little heading into July, suggesting hiring demand has continued to stabilize despite ongoing trade uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The composition of employment gains and wage growth will also remain important. June’s increase was driven primarily by part-time jobs, while full-time positions saw a more modest gain. Average hourly wage growth also picked up slightly in June after slowing sharply in May, but that\u2019s likely to continue to drift lower with slack in the market still high by historical standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More broadly, recent jobs reports have been consistent with an economy that continues to recover at a modest pace. Employment has continued to increase, the unemployment rate has edged lower from its April peak, and other indicators point to rebounding growth in Q2. The separately released Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours data showed employment up 95,000 this year to May\u2014stronger than the more timely Labour Force Survey\u2014with hours worked tracking firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A July report broadly in line with our expectations would reinforce our base case forecast that Canada’s labour market is continuing to stabilize, supporting the view that the economy remains on a path of modest, but steady expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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