{"id":13482,"date":"2026-07-31T15:53:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T15:53:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/?p=13482"},"modified":"2026-07-31T17:38:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T17:38:50","slug":"canadas-labour-market-expected-to-show-further-stabilization-into-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/canadas-labour-market-expected-to-show-further-stabilization-into-summer\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s labour market expected to show further stabilization into summer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner pad-b-0\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For the week of August 3<sup>rd <\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next Friday\u2019s labour market report for July in Canada is the first for Q3, and an important update on whether the gradual improvement seen in recent months is continuing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We expect jobs to increase by 5,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.5%. That would still leave the employment count down slightly in 2026, but would add to increases over May and June.&nbsp; And, with population (and labour force growth) slowing, the unemployment rate holding at 6.5% (down from 6.9% in April, and lower 0.4% from a year ago) remains consistent with per-worker market conditions broadly improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent labour market indicators, including job postings, have changed little heading into July, suggesting hiring demand has continued to stabilize despite ongoing trade uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The composition of employment gains and wage growth will also remain important. June&#8217;s increase was driven primarily by part-time jobs, while full-time positions saw a more modest gain. Average hourly wage growth also picked up slightly in June after slowing sharply in May, but that\u2019s likely to continue to drift lower with slack in the market still high by historical standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More broadly, recent jobs reports have been consistent with an economy that continues to recover at a modest pace. Employment has continued to increase, the unemployment rate has edged lower from its April peak, and other indicators point to rebounding growth in Q2. The separately released Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours data showed employment up 95,000 this year to May\u2014stronger than the more timely Labour Force Survey\u2014with hours worked tracking firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A July report broadly in line with our expectations would reinforce our base case forecast that Canada&#8217;s labour market is continuing to stabilize, supporting the view that the economy remains on a path of modest, but steady expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af72fcb3382b&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af72fcb3382b\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2250\" height=\"1236\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13535\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png 2250w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png?resize=300,165 300w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png?resize=768,422 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png?resize=1024,563 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png?resize=1536,844 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-JUL-31Final2.png?resize=2048,1125 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2250px) 100vw, 2250px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-rbc-list is-style-chevron-list\">\n<li class=\"wp-block-rbc-list-item\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We expect Canadian exports to decrease by 1.2% in June, while imports increase by 0.3%. The decline in exports is likely due mostly to lower oil prices during the month, while imports are expected to reflect moderate growth in motor vehicle shipments. On balance, we expect the merchandise trade balance to narrow to a $3.1 billion surplus, down from $4.2 billion in May.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af72fcb35c74&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af72fcb35c74\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full mar-b mob-mar-b-hlf wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2371\" height=\"3919\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png 2371w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png?resize=182,300 182w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png?resize=768,1269 768w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png?resize=620,1024 620w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png?resize=929,1536 929w, https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/07\/FG-Calendar-Aug-3_3.png?resize=1239,2048 1239w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2371px) 100vw, 2371px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Nathan Janzen<\/strong><\/strong><em>&nbsp;<em>is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abbey Xu<\/strong><em>&nbsp;is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide wide\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-block  pos-rel\" style=\"border-radius:0px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-section-inner-block  section-inner\" style=\"border-radius:0x\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-rbc-default-collapsible\"><p><button class=\"collapse-toggle collapsed\" data-target=\"#collapsebede6bbf\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"collapsebede6bbf\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ForwardGuidance-13482-bede6bbf\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ForwardGuidance\" data-dig-action=\"accordion closed\" action-closed=\"accordion closed\" action-opened=\"accordion open\" data-dig-label=\"Older reports\"><div>Older reports<\/div><\/button><\/p><div class=\"collapse-content collapse\" id=\"collapsebede6bbf\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbc-collapsible-inner-block collapse-inner\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17336 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-forward-guidance tag-canada tag-economy tag-gdp tag-inflation tag-labour-market tag-u-s\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/last-canadian-inflation-report-before-december-boc-meeting\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Last Canadian inflation report before December BoC meeting<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17030 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-forward-guidance tag-canada tag-economy tag-gdp tag-inflation tag-labour-market tag-u-s\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/industry-data-point-to-tepid-canadian-growth-in-late-q3\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Industry data point to tepid Canadian growth in late Q3<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-16794 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-forward-guidance tag-canada tag-economy tag-gdp tag-inflation tag-labour-market tag-u-s\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/post-rate-hike-spotlight-in-canada-turns-to-federal-budget-trade-and-jobs-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Post rate hike spotlight in Canada turns to federal budget, trade and jobs<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"h-explore-the-latest-from-rbc-economics\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Explore the latest from RBC Economics:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17302 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-financial-markets-monthly tag-canada tag-economy tag-forecast tag-gdp tag-inflation tag-labour-market\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/financial-markets-monthly\/central-banks-remain-focused-on-inflation-risks\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Central banks remain focused on inflation risks<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17282 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-canadian-analysis category-insights tag-canada tag-economy tag-inflation\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/canadas-headline-inflation-masks-a-harsher-regional-reality\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Canada&#8217;s headline inflation masks a harsher regional reality<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17263 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-canadian-analysis category-featured-analysis category-insights tag-canada tag-economy tag-immigration\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/new-immigration-levels-plan-adds-upside-to-population-growth-outlook\/\" target=\"_blank\" >New Immigration Levels Plan adds upside to population growth outlook<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17238 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-canadian-analysis category-featured-analysis category-insights tag-canada tag-economy tag-tariffs tag-u-s\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a 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class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/data-flashes\/canadas-prime-age-unemployment-steady-in-october\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Canada&#8217;s prime-age unemployment steady in October<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-16979 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-canadian-analysis category-featured-analysis category-budget-analysis category-provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks tag-budget tag-canada\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/provincial-and-fiscal-outlooks\/budget-analysis\/canadian-budget-2026-windfall-fuels-spending-not-savings\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Canadian Budget 2026: Windfall fuels spending, not savings<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-2932 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-the-10-minute-take tag-canada tag-economy tag-inflation tag-labour-market tag-mortgage tag-u-s\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/the-10-minute-take\/\" target=\"_blank\" >Podcast: The 10-Minute Take<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns mar-t mob-mar-t-qtr has-border-color has-grey-border-color is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9ba6dbca wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\" style=\"border-width:1px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h4 id=\"h-share-these-insights-with-your-network\" class=\"wp-block-heading mar-t-dbl mar-l-dbl\"><strong>Share these insights with your network:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons mar-b-dbl mar-l-dbl is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\"><div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-primary primary btn before\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/economics-subscriber\/index.html\" data-dig-id=\"LP-ForwardGuidance-13482-2dc940a6\" data-dig-category=\"LP-ForwardGuidance\" data-dig-action=\"button click\" data-dig-label=\"Subscribe Here-https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/economics-subscriber\/index.html \">Subscribe Here<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":354,"featured_media":12503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[101],"tags":[115,11,135,58],"rbc_econ_content_type":[],"class_list":["post-13482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forward-guidance","tag-canada","tag-economy","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canada\u2019s labour market expected to show further stabilization into summer - RBC Economics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/canadas-labour-market-expected-to-show-further-stabilization-into-summer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Canada\u2019s labour market expected to show further stabilization into summer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/forward-guidance\/canadas-labour-market-expected-to-show-further-stabilization-into-summer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Economics\" \/>\n<meta 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